The eod-umb journal

Heating oil, and gold looking big right now on the upside.
Probably the plays of the day, dont like setting stops into massive swinging markets generally. Maybe calls on those,perhaps march or so for expiry.
Could be huge duds, but thats always true.

Thought for the day:
Who invented curtains? And why?
 
Note, meat complex seriously rangebound right now, may be a strangle in there, watching for movement to potentiallly fade.

The grains are long up for the moment, dont know if their will be sells in their for a while- soybean complex, anyways-
stuck with big-ol nasty trades atm, maybe a straight forward petroleum complex play, metals a bit dodgy either way right now.

Update charts during the week , hopefully.




Relaaaaxxxxx, happy thoughts, happy, its all good.....all good.....all good...relaxxxx......
 
Oh crap, its been that long already?
Blast. Oh well.
So much for longside meat complex, and looking to short grains for the most part, though there appears to have been some money there for sure.
A little flummoxed for the time being, mostly on account of the bonds and currencies, which im not getting a good read on at all right now.

Note, thats a mighty sharp dive in soybeans (in eod terms) which may be more bearish than the previous pattern, but with a likely weaker downward movement ( ie, reach a lower low proportionately, but take more time getting there)
 
Hang on-how can i say "grains long up for the moment" and then basically ignore the first thing that popped into my head?
Quite easily it appears, operating on a directional bias of this nature with swing trade entries would have been juuuuuust fine.
Did i do that ?Noooooooo.
I thought about it, checked cot charts, waited for the rollover volume/price bars, and didnt do a goddamn thing.

Bloody marvellous, that is.

Still, it appears some of the basic concepts thus far may have been rather good, none of the meat comlpex breakout fades would have been hit, the straddles not such a bad idea as far as i know, and these things are good.
Im almost tempted to adopt a skalpz/ripley alter ego, only let loose on commodities, just to stimulate the mental process's involved .

But im not THAT desperate, yet.

Or am I??

:eek:
 
Huge technical reversal on feeder cattle,
dont like it much myself, ill keep an eye on it.
Lumber may still be bullish to.

Right now, soybeans look huge longside, but heading straight into resistance at 610, may contract. Im going to suggest, a shitload of chop there, until proven otherwise, which im sure it will.


April gold, massive volume spike as you would expect with the roll, IF there is a figure below 545 I would hit it at least a couple of times with short stops on the long side.

Hang seng, march, looks like trying to drop back to 15250 as large resistance, buys at or above 15500, IF a decent abc down develops. Yes, its a swing trade.
You got a problem???
You talkin to me????????????????
gosh, its awfully late at night, Ta tah.
 
Intesting to note, the meat complex, (including the feeder reversal i mentioned, which although its still in place, you would be mighty pissed off you didnt do the same on hoggies/porkies-and if you had tried the same on live cattle, well chalk it up in the debit column)

Started the turn spot on 8 days ago.
not being huge on these things, if anyone can point out why this was so, that would be great.
Cant be anything to do with grains, as others have mentioned surely.


TECHNICALLY, which is what im trying to look at overall,
Live cattle- Doji on that, march, and well who would a thunk a bullish bar next month out.
Wonders will never cease!!!
Am i in this trade, you ask? well if their werent so much F##n chop back in mid -late january, i mighta been .

Wheat, may is suspiciously bullish (in momentum terms, before anyone points out it is obviously heavily bearish) right now-odds are it will carry southbound, just like every other wheat macro pattern has done for the last 6 months.
Maybe, maybe sellish from 365-370, will see.


Blimey, theres gotta be something better than this, ive covered a few things im looking at, badly, im trying to cover, and record, a dozen+ contracts, its just crazy.
I could have updated every day etc, only to find I couldnt even follow what i was on about.

Oh well, that happens.

Cocoa seriously bearish right now, i think its a big sell, but the value isnt there for sell stops imo, and is likely to drop into a contracting range.

Either that, or plummet like a f##ng rock to around 1420, may contract.

Over and out, for now.

















:D
 
Interesting to note, both wheat most certainly was suspiciously bullish, and indeed, cocoa was in fact southbound at a rate of knots. Hasnt hit the 1420 region, (may) and a collection of inside days making a less than pretty picture there at the end of the week.

So much for value, hows about listening to that thing in your head that tells you what you actually think?
Whos to quantify the value, me? I think not- second guessing just isnt where its at, clearly.


Based on my offline notes, i would currently be long in silver, gold, and holding long in a coupl'a energies (brent, ho) long oj, hang seng/most indices, and potentially taking a f#ng bath on a euro-bund bracket, and taken out of a corn sell on a three bar reversal, and potentialy having taken some hits trying to buy the spi200 with those gaps over the last week or so.

Oh, and long yen fut's, maybe the quickest close out while possible on that, due to it being the weakest technically among the longs of the basket.
 
Rather liking the look of copper, sugar, and in fact cotton on an upside basis.

A few gaps may have shaken out copper, sugar a bit bullish in value terms, cotton-darned if i know, but thats dead on the 'ol 50% retracement. Thats significant volume on the rollout to may, through to december.
I never know what these things mean, except that somebody, a big somebody, is doing something.
Bullish divergence toward the december contract, BIG time, what the hell does that mean??
Particularly, on inside days?

Something big is happening here, in the cotton market, i just know it-but i dont know what it is, as per usual.



Thought for the day:

My mouse has a wear mark/discoloration on the left click button. Its quite sandpapery.
Do i spend to much time on the net.......or not enough.........
and should i get a new mouse?
If so, why?
 
Also, live cattle (august) and feeder cattle could be reasonable punts here.
Bit of a slingshot , technically,

Its not as though im trying to get abysmal low probability trades across the board, it just looks that way.:D

Normally, when strong technical formations occur in low volume commodities,you can practically gaurantee a gap up, lousy entry, and all the rest.
But this looks big enough for a punt, i wouldnt be putting much more than a lamb chop on any of them.

My thinking, something like a feeder cattle may limit buy@ 106.5, sl 105, oco, buy 108 sl @106.
Ie, buys 106-107, basically (may)

Live C, similiar, heavily discounted Vs the monthly, ripe for a weekly turn imo.

Holding yen, gold , silver,
NB S&P BEARISH technically, as is the spi200-They look like sells, but all these pros with expert calls here just'a plain scared me off. I dont see a eod short yet, its all about the value.
Despite my calls agreeing, mostly.
And being right.
 
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