The eod-umb journal

Plays of the looong weekend, silver put's, same for the most divergent (bullish ) indices, somebody is going to cash out here, exit on any low really.
Silver can be a real slider, right now, maybe slightly itm, holding out for any kind of mid week low, failing that........hold for 2-3 weeks.
These prices are madness (clarify, not the actual price, but the parabolic movement of) , maybe worth a shot.


Soy complex stuck to its guns there, it still doesnt like that resistance, maybe a play again for beans.


Interestingly, short stirling has dropped into a very similiar pattern to the soybeans, similiarities in the price behaviour there, (not correlated, just to be clear, just similiar market behaviour)

Will see what happens, the nazzie had a not so surprising fall last week, i mentioned many posts ago it was the weakest/most oversold of indices (including international) and was worth a shot to the longside.

May still be so, except now its the most bearish of the indices.......:confused:


Normally, id be looking for the most divergent bulls to short, the most bearish to go long, given appropriate pattern based behaviour, there have been some exceptions recently.

Dax is out there, but not more than a 2xatr retracement for donkeys, how this could be sustainable im not sure.

Lets see, no markets open till tuesday, must be a rock solid trade in there somewhere, will report back, if circumstances allow.

And if i can find some rock solid plays.

Have a great weekend

:)
 
Well, silver wasnt hugely off the mark, dont know whether or not there was a quid to be had there, was looking at sl 2006 N.

Originally i was thinking deep in the money, but with price spiking up like that, you may have had to stack on positions to have really made some hay, from what ive read with regard to spreads and slippage etc.


And i meant nikkei, not dax, that hadnt had a chunky pullback for a coupla weeks, so that was worthwhile for the reader, huh.


Unless you had looked up these indices, realised i was looking at the wrong chart, and acted accordingly.

Dax was bullish from the 13th, nikkei mostly bearish, so there you go.

DAMN CHEAP PENS.....


:mad:
 
Looking at crude oil, on the short side-specifically a 3-5 day abc up pattern to slide short entries under.
Limit over, around 80 perhaps, stop under (say 72ish) to ensure a position.
 
Dont know what chart i was looking at for that one, clearly looking for a long term short on oil, at remarkably ordinary value.

I did mention a specific price pattern on that , im not even going to check it, call it a loser. Keeps ones portfolio honest.


My trusty notepad tells me, from 25 july, i was lookng at
"gold call"
and "coffee worth a call?"

and from 11th of july , "euro bund bracket, or call",
and euribor strong weekly up.
Looking at the european interest rates, generally that is-T bonds were nice too.
World revolves around the fed, folks..............

All things being equal (but some things more equal than others) im pleased with that, for sure.
 
Natural gas and gold might be good long punts at around these price levels.

Soybeans has severe downside divergence, but looks as though there may be some nasty chop coming for the next week or so, give that one a miss i think.
 
Natural gas did have a nice little 4-5 day rally back there, gold surprisingly (to me) has floundered-and is still at that "nice "price i was looking at.

If there is a dark cloud calling for a re-evalution of gold, it's the similiarity of this current chart chart behaviour to the first quarter of 1996 , which established a long lasting bearish pattern.
 
Chart chart? Nice punctuation there.

Swiss market index is showing signs of marginal weakness, finally.
They must have sold a LOT of chocolate over the last year or so:cool:
 
I've been thinking about gold, and i dont see too many similiarities to this pattern and 1996.

After all, no huge war was being sold as being finished, markets were'nt in any particular dissaray-certainly, not oil or gold, sure there was a run-up, there may have been an inflation spectre, but............


HEY, WAIT A MINUTE..............!!!!!

But, it's different this time, you know.

It's different, but why-lets see, the most recent economic cycle has lasted a good 5 years beyond what it should have, a solid 10+ year cycle, really.

Strange, how the dot com bubble seemed to blow the wind out of peoples economic sails, and they are buying the never-ending "real" market gains, after this huge loss-as if it's actually worth something.

JM2c
 
Been really bored recently, so much so, i actually looked at some equities charts.

Maybe them swiss have been selling a lot of chocolate, 'coz cadbury schweppes (cbry, ftse) look's tankworthy.
higher high not out of the question, but usual patterns apply.
Tankworthy.
 
Phew, there's some stinker calls in that bunch.

did cadbury tank?
nope.
swiss market yodellers call it a day?
nope.

did ANYTHING tank??????
You betcha-my calls.
The GOOD news, is all of the indices (including those hole ridden cheese making yodellers), ftse, dow, you name it, all looking good for legitimate reversal territory, after abc patterns(largely intraday patterns, such is the strength) up into the nether regions of bullish psychology.

This applies equally to corn, wheat, even oats are a bit rich for a bowl of porridge and bran at these rates, not to mention the monstrous bearish divergence developing across the board in grains.

Uh, except soybeans, i like them for a bit of a jump up here, but im not about to eat 'em for breakfast now, am i?




Bacon, on the other hand....standard technical WTF zone on feb lean hogs/pb right now , for mine.

And no amount of dodgy bacon, could smell as bad as the last set of calls, for sure.

Its fortunate, my calls are directional indications, encompassing a roughly two week time frame, or id feel a bit of a goose.
I feel they will be validated, but better still, (if you would care to check the charts) is this example of what happens with true support /resistance /fractal entry methods-most of ones "bad" trades will NEVER ENTER the market.
Wishfull thinking? No, its a fact.



Remember, nobody can give you a bad hand, if it's your deck, and you made up the rules to suit yourself, not some other punk, who thinks you owe them a slab of beer, for whatever reason.

Their called "sore loosers".
Yup.





:)
 
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