The eod-umb journal

Holding off too much analysis this week, the elections seem to have things a little spooked, and theres a lot of ballistic moves that need to shake out a bit in the markets i normally look at.

(or its a good excuse not to do much work, anyway)

As an aside, t/bonds/bund, i sure didn't see that coming, but having tried to make sense of economic calender news, i think i'll stick with TA .

May be some bargain hunting in ag's coming up, but nothing too obvious right now-i noticed another poster with a long term coffee chart, looks sweet on the monthlies, but damn, the dailies are diabolical.
Extremely volatile markets require an extremely aggressive style, and that requires extremely aggressive money.


Hey, I like that-
"Extremely aggressive money", I think i just coined a phrase.

guy1
"Hey, how you doing on that market?"
guy2
"Oh, fantastic, my money is extremely aggressive"


:D
 
Just a sidenote, to keep things in one pile, i mentioned elsewhere crude would likely consolidate in the 56-57 region if it gets there, evidently its done that and held, more or less.

I also mentioned, 57.50 could represent good value for a eod long, that still holds, but im just not convinced by this setup.


Play of the day-i guess you could buy or sell something if you wanted to, (maybe some jan/feb crude calls for a few week hold) but id sooner stay out so far.





Thought for the day;

I dont get it-i keep picking the correct lotto numbers, but the lotto people keep drawing out the wrong ones!
Whats up with that?:confused:
 
Before i forget, soybeans are starting to look quite toppy.

Read in the paper today, coca cola amatil (the australian company ) did some deal to sell grog with a few larger importers, sounds like a winner in such a small, and already monopolised (by them) market.
Havent seen the chart yet, so no opinion as to respective value, but thought it was interesting. Buy grog!!
I mean , ah, (ahem) ill check out the chart.
 
The meat complex, live cattle, feeders are showing some suspicious bullish signs , even pork bellies has ranged well below median and closed strongly. hmm.

Coca cola amatil, belch, i dont see any value there for my methodology, priced in.

Mighty nice stock to have been in for the last year or two though, i would imagine.
 
Just an aside, as something that i dont recall seeing to often, is the price behaviour of HMSO , hammerson, (FTSE).
I may be looking at the wrong chart, its possible, but a highly unusual pattern on my indicators.

Ill take a wild stab in the dark, and suggest this behaviour is indicative of something like an earnings report, news date stuff generally.

Tentative punters, getting more tentative, and more and more...........thats what the price pattern says.

Thats normally bearish, but this pattern is unusual to me, because technically its a bullish pattern-but its on all the wrong sides of my oscillators for that to be the case.



Im just trying to improve my skills here, i havent looked at the stock news, anything about the stock, they could sell marshmellow's for all i know, and possibly wholesale truffle's via the Wombles of Wimbledon.



But, its something i havent seen before ( or remembered, at any rate) so i will keep an eye on it, i could go the shortcut and look up the stock, industry stuff, news, but that would be -well, a shortcut.



Hey, its the weekend, gimme a break.




Thought for the day;



I cant beleive its the weekend already.

Its not like i do a lot, there's really only 5 days of data, whichever way you cut the cake.

Thing is, why am i surprised its the weekend already??!?

It 's NOT as though it was Haley's freaking comet,, not ENTIRELY unexpected, you know?



















:) :cool:
 
Gold is darn tempting for a long, anywhere from here down to previous (weekly ) resistance.

For the simple reason, that it looks like a sell-the chart "looks" bearish, silver is very high, indices ridiculous, oil still looking for a base-something feels out of whack.

Thats likely just my brain though.

I could swear i might as well be looking at a lava lamp half the time.
 
Also, natural gas is looking a little weak imo.
Hate to say it, but, my veiw on petroleums havent been 100%- yet, at least in value terms.
Forecasts of mild winter, increasing supply........i still dont buy it.
Rubbish.
If all of these forecasts were spot on, then wouldnt crude be hovering around $40 by now?

Instead of many weeks of rangebound action, on the beloved sweet light crude????
I dont have a dog in this race, so what do i care, but i would care somewhat-if i thought they were about to pull the chilli -on -the- tail -trick(that isnt what its really called, as you know).

Crude is ripe to blow most punters out of the water, same with metals actually-one way or another.
Very difficult to call.
 
Time to call it a wrap on this journal, and focus on things, if thats possible.

Years ago, i relied on other people, who claimed they could do things they could not do . I didnt lose anything, except time and opportunity-same things im losing now.
While not "losing" anything, this experience has "cost" a conservative $250k/yr since-thats the price of failure, relying on other people-having a future, or not having a future.
With any luck, i will find a work-around for the problems i encounter, and see where it leads.


The end.


:cool:
 
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