The eod-umb journal

Silver:eek: well stuf me, thats a freaking bonanza, lets see.
Metals going off, at a rate of knots-
petroleums lurching, like so many magnetic toys, toward higher ranges-



Yet, most indices lined up with the bullside, overall. So far, in the short term....................

Something seriously f##ked up is happening here, evidently the bund/ bond conspiracy is taking hold!!!!


I told you, run for the caves, its here i tells ya.......
Or it could just be the result of capital flows, by people who actually DO know what their doing, unlike myself.:eek:


Anyhoo, lots of interesting movements here, not posting charts for the time being, the software im using bites the big one, what a gip.

Still very interested in coffee, i was looking short on wheat, and now corn gone up more, looking carefully for signs of a weekly short, yet a long signal in oats occurred today.
Blah, ill check it out tomorrow, im tired.

ciao
 
Well, there been some reasonable picks in there over the last while, some reasonably dodgy picks as well, obviously the analysis is far to vague to make much sense of, might go up, might go down. Great!
Not exactly a strategy, or good follow up/record keeping.

Not sure how to fix that exactly, the offline notes arent that much better.



I was thinking the other day, that
If- roughly 50% of trades are stopped out,
And-roughly 50% of stopouts go profitably in your original direction,
And-roughly 50% of stop and reverses are profitable-

Then what would that mean? You only have to be half as good as the market to be profitable?:D
 
Again, big nasties on the horizon, not much in the way of "pleasant" sort of trades.

It has occured to me, much of what ive posted here is very much in the "im calling a huge directional reversal " camp, im certain that isnt deliberate, more a case of
"behold, ye all, my trend trading sucks , hear ye, and be in awe, or thou shalt be smote, ye peasants"

Or something like that. Only a few notes, OJ big double top on august contract, FWIW, i thought he might as well be innocent.
Further out, it looks more bullish-geez it pisses me of, i cant remember what contango/and the other f# n word mean.

Whats the saying, "if front months dont fit, you must quit", well that cant be right.


Like the look of gasoil for a bit of a move, probably wont show its hand there until mid next week, thinking long, dont know why.

Currently, most metals look kinda crap,
maybe best bets for now, jockey for WHEAT shorts for a long term hold, maybe nat gas calls(as if those option guys wouldnt have sucked all the gain out of the equation), and theres significant contango/backwardation on lean hogs. geez that PISSES me off, lets call it bullish divergence for now.

Little value in indices, but a few currencies are starting to show signs-and, COFFEE is still strong in a locked up price range.
That would be good, but again, just guessing, those greek freaks woulda bled the position dry already.

Oh, did i mention, i dislike options?

Anyhoo, buy petroleums, yada yada yada. Just be protected out there.....actually, after reading the reverse psychology thread, short , short, short.


"Long, petroleums, you must be. Uncertainty, yes, the enemy of order it is. Through certainty only, can you say, what the worth of a loaf of bread is. Certainty, in the minds of fools only it exists, yes. "

yoda.jpg
 
"Three bar reversals, trust, you must not.
Lead you to the dark side, they will, yes. Longer time frames only, will you see the force with....powerfull, the dark side can be."

yoda.jpg
 
"Theres definitely something to these seasonal charts, Scully.
Im not sure, right now, what it is, but Im sure its out there, i just need a few more days."

Vneck4.jpg
 
Nothing much in the way of huge surprises at weeks end, suspiciously so all things being equal.

Boring , boring boring. This is a good sign overall-it suggests whomever the players may be, they are holding over the weekend , maybe looking to unload early next week, maybe they dont much care because they are certain of price direction,
maybe, they just all got bored and went on vacation, or fell asleep.

Who's to say.
:)
 
From last week, best bet jockey for wheat shorts, Good idea.
I thought gasoil looked long, obviously didnt wait around for any mid week arrangement , thats for sure.

This just in, soybeans isnt likeing resistance at 600-605 (depends what contract etc ) and i have to say, cocoa has basically completed a full bullish pattern-thats a HUGE bullish pattern imo.
Problem, is how many of these suckers have worked in the last 6 months plus?

Nearly all of them? It does occur to me, that these patterns will cease "working" , leading to a new pattern based market behaviour- For some reason, i have an image of some guy in a cave petting a white fluffy cat, holding 40000 cocoa contracts, saying "ahahahah, ive got them now, resistance is futile to my market manipulation"

Dont know where that came from, its just what pops into my head when these patterns repeat again and again.


Soy meal, biiiiig looking bullish pattern, triple base, better than the weekly triangle on beans themselves. Oil, well i dont know whats going on there, it seems to be going to some lengths to be pernicious and ornery.



Thought for the day;

Cheap pens. I hate them. They either dont work straight away, or they con you into a false sense of security, you scrawl a couple of notes and there top notch-next thing you know, they completely stop, altogether, leaving you scratching that important number/message like a stonemason into the notepad, hoping, you might be able to hold it up to the light and figure out what you wrote from the shadows cast on it, or pouring pepper or something over the page to illuminate said scrawl.

I hate that. Cheap pens.





:mad:
 
NB, my ideas on the meat complex SUCKED and would have been duds, duds, duds.

Except for PB. Yup, just leap in front of the freight train, thats my strategy, super effort there. Marvellous work on that one.

I did establish, why lc did that, and will attempt to post a chart on my last ideas on that market, geez. I cant beleive it.
Well, i think ill just go to sleep, i really should get back into forex.....get a trading fix, something. Blah.
Not stoked, but then i cant code, and on that basis, i cant complain because my ideas have been quite good overall, better than average, near as i can tell.

Btw, if your reading this, you should check out $costaverageman$s journal, now that IS actually inspiring.
:)
 
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