The endangered senators list
By Rachel Rose Hartman Tue Jul 6, 11:23 am ET
It's hard out there for a Senate incumbent. In May, Utah GOP Sen. Robert Bennett was kicked off his party's ticket during the state convention. And less than two weeks later, Democrat Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania â who had abandoned his longtime affiliation with the GOP expressly so that he could sidestep a tough primary challenge from the right â lost the Democratic primary nod to Rep. Joe Sestak. What other sitting U.S. senators might be on the short path to involuntary retirement come November?
The most endangered senators of 2010
Little hope for survival:
* Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.): Lincoln's supporters cheered her June 8 primary runoff victory over Bill Halter, but an even bigger fight lies ahead. Lincoln has trailed the Republican nominee, Rep. John Boozman, in polls throughout the election cycle. Republicans targeted Lincoln for defeat early on, preparing to spin her Democratic record against her in an increasingly conservative state. And Boozman has been reaping some of the national momentum building behind the Republicans this cycle. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is scheduled to campaign for Boozman on Tuesday. Lincoln still enjoys a huge fundraising advantage over her challenger, but so far that gap hasn't been reflected in any of the polling.
* Harry Reid (D-Nev.): The majority leader has been a lightning rod for conservatives ever since he came to power after the 2006 Democratic takeover of the Senate. And indeed, the fervor of the national GOP's anti-Reid sentiment helped propel tea party favorite Sharron Angle to a primary win over GOP establishment favorite Sue Lowden. Angle, a former state assemblywoman, continues to lead Reid in major polls since the Republican primary. Reid, like Lincoln, has been winning the fundraising game thus far, but many outside groups have been willing to supplement Angle's war chest with national funds.
* Michael Bennet (D-Colo.): The appointed senator is getting hit from all sides this year. Though much of Colorado's Democratic establishment has lined up behind Bennet for the August primary, there are some notable exceptions: Just last week, former President Bill Clinton endorsed former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff over Bennet. And if Bennet survives his primary, he'll face a tough general-election fight in November.
Still kicking:
* Russ Feingold (D-Wis.): A wealthy tea-party-backed challenger and a tough political climate have thrown Feingold into a surprisingly competitive re-election race. Plastics manufacturer Ron Johnson became the GOP star candidate in the race after winning the May party convention. He has tapped his personal fortune to blanket the state with ads to boost his own name recognition while casting Feingold as a tool of the Democratic establishment. But Democrats say that the media flurry will die down and Johnson's right-wing views will push centrists and independents back to the Feingold camp by November.
* Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.): Cycle after cycle, Boxer looks vulnerable on paper in her re-election bids, even though the California electorate reliably leans Democratic. This time out, though, the stars may be aligning against her. The cash-strapped Golden State is looking askance at many of Boxer's liberal policy priorities, and the nation's growing anti-incumbent and anti-Democratic mood won't help. And unlike her past re-election bids, Boxer is now going up against a strong â and well-heeled â challenger: former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.
* Patty Murray (D-Wash.): Murray wasn't pegged as vulnerable at the start of this cycle, but Republican Dino Rossi's surprising showing in early polling has changed that. Many Washington state insiders had dismissed Rossi, a former state senator, as a poor prospect for statewide office, largely on the basis of his razor-thin 2004 gubernatorial loss to Democrat Chris Gregoire and his less-narrow loss to her in 2008. But Washington is no longer trending as strongly blue as it used to, and polls show that Rossi would have a fighting chance if the election were held today.
* Richard Burr (R-N.C.): After Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole's 2008 loss to Democrat Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Democrats added Burr to their 2010 target list. Burr faces a challenge this year from the Democratic secretary of state, Elaine Marshall, who has picked up backing from special interest groups, including environmental organizations, eager to oust Burr. Polls since Marshall's primary runoff victory show Burr basically running even with the Democratic challenger, but before Marshall's runoff bump, Burr had been consistently in the lead.
Moving out of the danger zone:
* David Vitter (R-La.): Vitter's re-election odds continue to improve as the cycle plays out, despite the senator's scandal-tainted past. His Democratic opponent, Rep. Charles Melancon, has been aggressively attacking Vitter for everything from his handling of the BP oil spill to the personal misconduct of an aide. But the Blue Dog Democratic challenger has yet to make a significant dent in Vitter's polling edge.
* John McCain (R-Ariz.): McCain's primary challenger, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, was expected to significantly complicate McCain's re-election bid, chiefly by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment in Arizona. Hayworth has maintained tea party support, but he has failed to gain much real traction, in part because he's found himself on the defensive over several recent campaign attacks. McCain almost certainly will make out of the primary and won't face any other hurdles to re-election.
* Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.): Appointed senators such as Gillibrand â who took over Hillary Clinton's seat last year when Clinton became secretary of state â face extra hurdles in running for a full term. That's why Republican strategists targeted Gillibrand early on as potentially vulnerable. Still, despite her short term, Gillibrand has been performing well in head-to-head name recognition against the field of potential GOP challengers â which in a strongly Democratic state like New York translates so far into a 20-point edge over the competition.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upsho...uX2hlYWRsaW5lX2xpc3QEc2xrA3RoZWVuZGFuZ2VyZQ--
By Rachel Rose Hartman Tue Jul 6, 11:23 am ET
It's hard out there for a Senate incumbent. In May, Utah GOP Sen. Robert Bennett was kicked off his party's ticket during the state convention. And less than two weeks later, Democrat Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania â who had abandoned his longtime affiliation with the GOP expressly so that he could sidestep a tough primary challenge from the right â lost the Democratic primary nod to Rep. Joe Sestak. What other sitting U.S. senators might be on the short path to involuntary retirement come November?
The most endangered senators of 2010
Little hope for survival:
* Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.): Lincoln's supporters cheered her June 8 primary runoff victory over Bill Halter, but an even bigger fight lies ahead. Lincoln has trailed the Republican nominee, Rep. John Boozman, in polls throughout the election cycle. Republicans targeted Lincoln for defeat early on, preparing to spin her Democratic record against her in an increasingly conservative state. And Boozman has been reaping some of the national momentum building behind the Republicans this cycle. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is scheduled to campaign for Boozman on Tuesday. Lincoln still enjoys a huge fundraising advantage over her challenger, but so far that gap hasn't been reflected in any of the polling.
* Harry Reid (D-Nev.): The majority leader has been a lightning rod for conservatives ever since he came to power after the 2006 Democratic takeover of the Senate. And indeed, the fervor of the national GOP's anti-Reid sentiment helped propel tea party favorite Sharron Angle to a primary win over GOP establishment favorite Sue Lowden. Angle, a former state assemblywoman, continues to lead Reid in major polls since the Republican primary. Reid, like Lincoln, has been winning the fundraising game thus far, but many outside groups have been willing to supplement Angle's war chest with national funds.
* Michael Bennet (D-Colo.): The appointed senator is getting hit from all sides this year. Though much of Colorado's Democratic establishment has lined up behind Bennet for the August primary, there are some notable exceptions: Just last week, former President Bill Clinton endorsed former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff over Bennet. And if Bennet survives his primary, he'll face a tough general-election fight in November.
Still kicking:
* Russ Feingold (D-Wis.): A wealthy tea-party-backed challenger and a tough political climate have thrown Feingold into a surprisingly competitive re-election race. Plastics manufacturer Ron Johnson became the GOP star candidate in the race after winning the May party convention. He has tapped his personal fortune to blanket the state with ads to boost his own name recognition while casting Feingold as a tool of the Democratic establishment. But Democrats say that the media flurry will die down and Johnson's right-wing views will push centrists and independents back to the Feingold camp by November.
* Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.): Cycle after cycle, Boxer looks vulnerable on paper in her re-election bids, even though the California electorate reliably leans Democratic. This time out, though, the stars may be aligning against her. The cash-strapped Golden State is looking askance at many of Boxer's liberal policy priorities, and the nation's growing anti-incumbent and anti-Democratic mood won't help. And unlike her past re-election bids, Boxer is now going up against a strong â and well-heeled â challenger: former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.
* Patty Murray (D-Wash.): Murray wasn't pegged as vulnerable at the start of this cycle, but Republican Dino Rossi's surprising showing in early polling has changed that. Many Washington state insiders had dismissed Rossi, a former state senator, as a poor prospect for statewide office, largely on the basis of his razor-thin 2004 gubernatorial loss to Democrat Chris Gregoire and his less-narrow loss to her in 2008. But Washington is no longer trending as strongly blue as it used to, and polls show that Rossi would have a fighting chance if the election were held today.
* Richard Burr (R-N.C.): After Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole's 2008 loss to Democrat Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Democrats added Burr to their 2010 target list. Burr faces a challenge this year from the Democratic secretary of state, Elaine Marshall, who has picked up backing from special interest groups, including environmental organizations, eager to oust Burr. Polls since Marshall's primary runoff victory show Burr basically running even with the Democratic challenger, but before Marshall's runoff bump, Burr had been consistently in the lead.
Moving out of the danger zone:
* David Vitter (R-La.): Vitter's re-election odds continue to improve as the cycle plays out, despite the senator's scandal-tainted past. His Democratic opponent, Rep. Charles Melancon, has been aggressively attacking Vitter for everything from his handling of the BP oil spill to the personal misconduct of an aide. But the Blue Dog Democratic challenger has yet to make a significant dent in Vitter's polling edge.
* John McCain (R-Ariz.): McCain's primary challenger, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, was expected to significantly complicate McCain's re-election bid, chiefly by appealing to anti-immigration sentiment in Arizona. Hayworth has maintained tea party support, but he has failed to gain much real traction, in part because he's found himself on the defensive over several recent campaign attacks. McCain almost certainly will make out of the primary and won't face any other hurdles to re-election.
* Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.): Appointed senators such as Gillibrand â who took over Hillary Clinton's seat last year when Clinton became secretary of state â face extra hurdles in running for a full term. That's why Republican strategists targeted Gillibrand early on as potentially vulnerable. Still, despite her short term, Gillibrand has been performing well in head-to-head name recognition against the field of potential GOP challengers â which in a strongly Democratic state like New York translates so far into a 20-point edge over the competition.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upsho...uX2hlYWRsaW5lX2xpc3QEc2xrA3RoZWVuZGFuZ2VyZQ--
