The Election Autopsy

Overall, almost exactly what I would have written 10 years ago... not bad. He could probably either lose his paycheck or think deeper and actually get it right. Pretty conventional establishment analysis.

I used to believe the same econ propaganda. Til I dug deeper.

Here is the big one.... there is no good reason to predict systemic inflation if the FED govt borrowers the money they are spending. I was taught in school the reason we borrow the money instead of just exercising our sovereign right to print is to avoid the inflation that accompanies printing. That is basic econ... makes sense... and always forgotten by FED apologists who blame inflation on the government instead of the FED.

I repeat... What is the point of borrowing the money... if it were not to avoid inflation? Why would we just not print the deficit instead of borrowing it.

So everything your guy wrote... is based on a flawed assumption. Although his prediction are probably correct. The FED is probably in control and they will pretend they have to raise interest rates because of the deficit...
That is just part of the FED Kabuki.

2. I note... that raising tariffs systematically and properly could increase manufacturing and jobs here at home? Hereby improving the economy and our national security and eliminating the need for a Federal income tax. Perhaps a massive boom for the economy.

3. I could name a few more... but I will wait. Oddly, I do still feel a pull to his type of logical but conventional FED propaganda... I mean analysis. And pragmatically speaking I doubt the Ryan and McConnell and the hundred of other politicians the FED owns through their surrogates tied to their money pump will ever let our economy be restructured away from FED control via income tax and deficit borrowing.




Had I written my own detailed summary of what we should expect in terms of economic impact out of the new Trump administration, it would not differ one iota from this summary provided by Oliver Blanchard, who in my opinion is exceeded by no one in terms of understanding the balance of forces affecting a modern economy such as that of the United States. I would invite my trump enthusiast, 'libertarian', laissez faire 'free-, but anti-, trade,'* anti-immigrant, anarcho-antigovernment friends to read it and pay attention.

Let me add that Blanchard, always the diplomat, has toned down somewhat his mention of the economic dangers, e.g. widening inequality, inflation, retaliatory tariffs, deficits, and negative impact on those occupying the bottom rung of the economic ladder, that a Trump administration and greater supply-side economic initiatives presents. One can only hope that Trump was, indeed, lying about his plan for America -- which fortunately appears to be the case -- or alternatively, that the House and Senate will hold him in check.
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*If this make no sense to you, it shouldn't!
 
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seriously. if a tax cut still results in increased revenue... why not cut?
Would like to see people start using the correct terminology including Trump etc.=====It is tax rate cuts, not tax cuts.
 
that a Trump administration and greater supply-side economic initiatives presents. One can only hope that Trump was, indeed, lying about his plan for America --
Supply side economics works every time it is tried. What needs to happen now is that spending cuts should be tried at the same time.==Izzy
 
I will try to be more specific. thanks.
I think of tax cuts as cutting or eliminating tax laws and their rates.
I see the results of tax as tax revenues.

but tax rate cuts is more clear.


Would like to see people start using the correct terminology including Trump etc.=====It is tax rate cuts, not tax cuts.
 
I will try to be more specific. thanks.
I think of tax cuts as cutting or eliminating tax laws and their rates.
I see the results of tax as tax revenues.

but tax rate cuts is more clear.
Good posting! --It wasn't a personal attack at you, but I just get flummoxed at the deletion by politicians of the word "rate". In all likelihood, tax burden will go up due to more economic activity, but most of your low info/lazy crowd just hear tax cuts for wealthy.-- I know you know of course.-Kindest regards, Ishmael.
 
Been done: See also Brownback's Kansas experiment.
Yep. Same old Same old. --Revenues increasing with lower tax rates or in this case non income tax, but spending is increasing at a much greater level. Supply side working again as it always does, but politicians continue spending. --One quick note-- Kansas would be doing even better with revenue if oil production hadn't reduced and if crop prices hadn't dropped so much. --Thanks for bringing this one up!
 
Yep. Same old Same old. --Revenues increasing with lower tax rates or in this case non income tax, but spending is increasing at a much greater level. Supply side working again as it always does, but politicians continue spending. --One quick note-- Kansas would be doing even better with revenue if oil production hadn't reduced and if crop prices hadn't dropped so much. --Thanks for bringing this one up!
You should thank gwb, he's been stewarding a good thread on it.
;)

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...re-turning-kansas-into-a-smoking-ruin.285208/
 
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