The Down Move Has Started

riskfreetrading · Jun 9, 2009

Readers of the financialtraders blog sent me emails asking what I think of this market. Some of them are from ET (sorry I cannot answer all of you individually via emails--but I have been answering a couple chosen "randomly"/based on topic).

Here is my thinking which I have not posted yet.

This afternoon's lower move was slow but systematic. This is indicative of systematic selling. With the bears and (the last?) bulls looking at each other's eye, a defeat of bulls is bringing the fast larger moves back to town.

Tomorrow should be a critical day. If it sinks, the situation is clearer. If it goes up at open, I would be looking for a spot to short it, in anticipation of a red thursday.

A possible trigger: June futures investors start closing their profitable longs because expiration is next week.

What do you think? What would be the trigger?

sandygray66 · Jun 9, 2009

Personally, I think the trigger started last week, with Stock_Trad3r's trumpeting of the return of the bull market!

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=165794

He's the ultimate contrarian sentiment trade.

riskfreetrading · Jun 9, 2009

I thought he left ET for good! I missed it

sandygray66 · Jun 9, 2009

Well, you can rest assured that you have the Stock_Trad3r contrarian wind at your back.

riskfreetrading · Jun 9, 2009

PS: I wanted to add a poll to this thread, but I have never done it before. If someone can add it it might help knowing people's thinking.

Rabbitone · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from riskfreetrading:

Readers of the financialtraders blog sent me emails asking what I think of this market. Some of them are from ET (sorry I cannot answer all of you individually via emails--but I have been answering a couple chosen "randomly"/based on topic).

Here is my thinking which I have not posted yet.

This afternoon's lower move was slow but systematic. This is indicative of systematic selling. With the bears and (the last?) bulls looking at each other's eye, a defeat of bulls is bringing the fast larger moves back to town.

Tomorrow should be a critical day. If it sinks, the situation is clearer. If it goes up at open, I would be looking for a spot to short it, in anticipation of a red thursday.

A possible trigger: June futures investors start closing their profitable longs because expiration is next week.

What do you think? What would be the trigger?

I agree with your assessment overall. The market is settling back at support in at the long term averages. That is normally a key trading time. Over the next week we should see a move down.

shortie · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from riskfreetrading:

PS: I wanted to add a poll to this thread, but I have never done it before. If someone can add it it might help knowing people's thinking.

you need to click the poll option before you create the thread. i don't think it can be added later.

a poll separated from the thread would soon be trashed by Ivan The Terrible.

it is good to see that your system signals a turning point when we have Full Moon. Nothing can save this market now but a miracle.

riskfreetrading · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from shortie:

a poll separated from the thread would soon be trashed by Ivan The Terrible.

.

Good to hear from you shortie, and thanks for summarizing how to start polls.

There are some people (you are NOT one of them) on ET who need a tough guy like Ivan from time to time. There is also Ivan The Goodguy-- let me appeal to him. If Ivan were to agree, and since you seem to know how to make and run polls and you have been a GREAT CONTRIBUTOR to ET, would it be ok with you if you were to start a thread if Sir Ivan gives his nod. I also give my permission, if you were to agree that you become the manager of this thread assuming that Ivan can use his editorial privileges to add a poll and change my name to your name as manager of this thread.

noddyboy · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from shortie:

you need to click the poll option before you create the thread. i don't think it can be added later.

a poll separated from the thread would soon be trashed by Ivan The Terrible.

it is good to see that your system signals a turning point when we have Full Moon. Nothing can save this market now but a miracle.

For what it is worth, I think we can break out either way but definately not range bound any further...

shortie · Jun 9, 2009

Quote from riskfreetrading:

Good to hear from you shortie, and thanks for summarizing how to start polls.

There are some people (you are NOT one of them) on ET who need a tough guy like Ivan from time to time. There is also Ivan The Goodguy-- let me appeal to him. If Ivan were to agree, and since you seem to know how to make and run polls and you have been a GREAT CONTRIBUTOR to ET, would it be ok with you if you were to start a thread if Sir Ivan gives his nod. I also give my permission, if you were to agree that you become the manager of this thread assuming that Ivan can use his editorial privileges to add a poll and change my name to your name as manager of this thread.

sure, i agree with whatever Ivan thinks