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The Down Move Has Started
- Thread starter riskfreetrading
- Start date
Quote from shortie:
it is good to see that your system signals a turning point when we have Full Moon. Nothing can save this market now but a miracle.
Excellent point about the full moon. I forgot about that. Let's hope this one has a greater effect than the last one (which only coincided with a minor pullback).
Quote from riskfreetrading:
Readers of the financialtraders blog sent me emails asking what I think of this market. Some of them are from ET (sorry I cannot answer all of you individually via emails--but I have been answering a couple chosen "randomly"/based on topic).
Here is my thinking which I have not posted yet.
This afternoon's lower move was slow but systematic. This is indicative of systematic selling. With the bears and (the last?) bulls looking at each other's eye, a defeat of bulls is bringing the fast larger moves back to town.
Tomorrow should be a critical day. If it sinks, the situation is clearer. If it goes up at open, I would be looking for a spot to short it, in anticipation of a red thursday.
A possible trigger: June futures investors start closing their profitable longs because expiration is next week.
What do you think? What would be the trigger?
contract rollover days are often very choppy. it took me a long time to figure out that flat is sometimes the best position, and that's my trading plan for Thursday. Flat. I may look at a few stocks, but daytrading futures on rollover adds more unknown elements to the ES jungle to the point where most of the good traders will back off and just watch.
btw, there used to be (not sure if they still do it) a crew of cme/cbot floor traders that specialize in trading rollover and the chop.....if memory serves me, they actually stick around for 1-2 weeks from rollover to take advantage of all the chop and make some good $$ catching traders offsides. with the pits thinning out i'm not so sure if they still do it or not though.
Quote from Ivanovich:
I'm pretty sure I can add a poll to this one. What would be your question and options?
Thanks Ivan. How about these options (you can edit them):
Your Market Outlook For Next Two Weeks
1. Will Keep Going UP
2. Some Upside Then Down
3. Tight Range
4. Some Downside Then Up
5. No more upside: Going Down Any Day Now
Thanks!
Tech stocks rallied today but DOW and S&P stalled. NASDAQ also did not go up as tech stocks did. We have market imbalance. Oils is also up which will put a damp to the market. I see flat or down for the next 3 days combined. I am betting on CSCO 20, ALTR at 17.5, ADI at 25 and TXN at 21 by option expiry date. FXI is also going down.
So far so good! After a "fake" gapup, Qs fell pretty fast and broke yesterday's low. Good sign for the thesis of this thread.
Question that is puzzling me: why the open in Qs broke yesterdays' high? An attempt to game to the market higher?
Question that is puzzling me: why the open in Qs broke yesterdays' high? An attempt to game to the market higher?
Quote from riskfreetrading:
Question that is puzzling me: why the open in Qs broke yesterdays' high? An attempt to game to the market higher?
Perhaps these might offer some clues. These are all gains.
All Ordinaries 4,016.30 2:47AM ET 82.70 (2.10%)
^SSEC Shanghai Composite 2,816.25 3:00AM ET 28.36 (1.02%)
^HSI Hang Seng 18,785.66 5:59AM ET 727.17 (4.03%)
^BSESN BSE 30 15,466.81 6:28AM ET 339.81 (2.25%)
^JKSE Jakarta Composite 2,108.81 5:00AM ET 15.52 (0.74%)
^KLSE KLSE Composite 1,082.97 5:26AM ET 11.18 (1.04%)
^N225 Nikkei 225 9,991.49 3:00AM ET 204.67 (2.09%)
^NZ50 NZSE 50 2,827.97 1:31AM ET 5.57 (0.20%)
^STI Straits Times 2,391.22 5:10AM ET 41.35 (1.76%)
^KS11 Seoul Composite 1,414.88 5:04AM ET 43.04 (3.14%)
^TWII Taiwan Weighted 6,462.27 1:46AM ET 47.88 (0.75%)
ATX 2,204.34 10:40AM ET 71.21 (3.34%)
^BFX BEL-20 2,063.46 10:55AM ET 6.85 (0.33%)
^FCHI CAC 40 3,319.71 10:55AM ET 22.98 (0.70%)
^GDAXI DAX 5,078.78 10:40AM ET 80.92 (1.62%)
^AEX AEX General 267.32 10:55AM ET 4.29 (1.63%)
^OSEAX OSE All Share 357.52 10:40AM ET 8.80 (2.52%)
^SMSI Madrid General 996.53 10:50AM ET 13.12 (1.33%)
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 244.93 10:54AM ET 4.63 (1.93%)
^SSMI Swiss Market 5,439.68 10:40AM ET 51.01 (0.95%)
^FTSE FTSE 100 4,459.36 10:40AM ET 54.57 (1.24%)
Quote from riskfreetrading:
Readers of the financialtraders blog sent me emails asking what I think of this market. Some of them are from ET (sorry I cannot answer all of you individually via emails--but I have been answering a couple chosen "randomly"/based on topic).
Here is my thinking which I have not posted yet.
This afternoon's lower move was slow but systematic. This is indicative of systematic selling. With the bears and (the last?) bulls looking at each other's eye, a defeat of bulls is bringing the fast larger moves back to town.
Tomorrow should be a critical day. If it sinks, the situation is clearer. If it goes up at open, I would be looking for a spot to short it, in anticipation of a red thursday.
A possible trigger: June futures investors start closing their profitable longs because expiration is next week.
What do you think? What would be the trigger?
What do I think?
Buy buy buy. I love these headlines week after week, day after day...
Trying to figure it all out.