...to the wisdom of men like Daniel Tenengauzer.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124289873815142839.html
...To be sure, a bet on the dollar's weakness is a bet on the global economy recovering. The opposite could also hold true. Despite the dollars recent swoon, Banc of America-Merrill Lynch foreign-exchange strategist Daniel Tenengauzer reiterated his contrarian view Thursday that the dollar will strengthen in coming months. That is despite chatter, especially among Chinese and Russian officials, that the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is no longer assured.
Mr. Tenengauzer says long-term changes in U.S. consumer spending and savings rates will keep U.S. trade deficits low, which produces dollar strength. He anticipates the euro will weaken to $1.20 in the third quarter of 2009. "It's about an unwinding of an entire layer of consumption that evolved around a more indebted consumer," he says.
And also to the wisdom of still others...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/23/business/economy/23dollar.html?em
...Some experts say fears of inflation and the loss of the dollarâs strength are overblown.
With the global economy in its worst downturn since World War II, and European banks facing up to $1 trillion in new losses from Eastern European investments, the euro may begin to weaken on its own against the dollar, they say. The United States remains the worldâs default reserve currency, these experts add, and Treasury debt is still considered the worldâs safest investment.
The Federal Reserveâs own forecasts call for inflation to hover in a âlow range,â rising only about 0.6 to 0.9 percent this year. Consumer prices dropped sharply over the last six months as demand plummeted, and prices were flat last month after falling slightly in March.
According to the Labor Department, consumer prices in April were down 0.7 percent from a year earlier, their biggest decline in decades. Airline tickets cost less, gasoline is cheaper than last year, and retailers are still offering deep discounts to beckon consumers.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124289873815142839.html
...To be sure, a bet on the dollar's weakness is a bet on the global economy recovering. The opposite could also hold true. Despite the dollars recent swoon, Banc of America-Merrill Lynch foreign-exchange strategist Daniel Tenengauzer reiterated his contrarian view Thursday that the dollar will strengthen in coming months. That is despite chatter, especially among Chinese and Russian officials, that the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is no longer assured.
Mr. Tenengauzer says long-term changes in U.S. consumer spending and savings rates will keep U.S. trade deficits low, which produces dollar strength. He anticipates the euro will weaken to $1.20 in the third quarter of 2009. "It's about an unwinding of an entire layer of consumption that evolved around a more indebted consumer," he says.
And also to the wisdom of still others...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/23/business/economy/23dollar.html?em
...Some experts say fears of inflation and the loss of the dollarâs strength are overblown.
With the global economy in its worst downturn since World War II, and European banks facing up to $1 trillion in new losses from Eastern European investments, the euro may begin to weaken on its own against the dollar, they say. The United States remains the worldâs default reserve currency, these experts add, and Treasury debt is still considered the worldâs safest investment.
The Federal Reserveâs own forecasts call for inflation to hover in a âlow range,â rising only about 0.6 to 0.9 percent this year. Consumer prices dropped sharply over the last six months as demand plummeted, and prices were flat last month after falling slightly in March.
According to the Labor Department, consumer prices in April were down 0.7 percent from a year earlier, their biggest decline in decades. Airline tickets cost less, gasoline is cheaper than last year, and retailers are still offering deep discounts to beckon consumers.
