Something I didn't want to go too deep into because I'm assuming many people understand the basics of Immunology, Vaccinology & Immunotherapeutics via reading up on it online.
- Every vaccine in history will (has) wane over time.
As stated, mutations happen every day in many countries using different vaccines to fight the same disease.
Usually, when a mutation pops up on the radar they first identify how is it spreading from one region to another region prior to labeling it as a Variant of Interest or Variant of Concern. Sometimes that identification of spread is isolated or it's a breakout.
So far, this mutation has not been classified as a Variant of Interest nor Variant of Concern...its a mutation that's being watched and studied...usually contact tracing is involved too which is why I was surprised the article did not explain how the mutations traveled from the United Kingdom to the United States while borders were closed.
There's a possibility that the same mutation occurs in different areas of the world but not likely because it will need similar conditions within a host for such to occur (e.g. different patients in different countries with the same underlying medical condition being infected by the same type of virus strain, same culture in different countries that have recovered from a Covid infection etc)...
Again, they would know this via contact tracing to discover when/where the patient was infected with the mutation.
For example, with the Delta Variant...they knew who was patient #1 (October 2020) and where the patient travel for infection of an entire family in another region of India. They also knew what city had the first outbreak of Covid Delta Variant for it to qualify as a Variant of Interest and they knew patient #1 (Delta Variant) was immuno-compromise.
- My point, contact tracing is critical in understanding the spread and part of determining how transmissible a virus is to those that are not vaccinated and to those that are vaccinated...reason for my earlier question about borders being closed.
Back to the issue of declining antibodies (vaccine wane)... it's normal and you must study a mutation against a vaccine at full strength versus a vaccine that's been waning for several months including studying the mutation against a vaccine with a booster shot.
Many countries are now doing booster shots but just like the initial vaccination...a country will again need a good size of their population (at least those with immune compromise conditions) to receive a booster as a defense against the mutation and to help minimize the next mutation if the patient has a breakthrough infection.
Note: Most mutations occur in those not vaccinated. The first Variants of Interest and Variants of Concern occurred prior to vaccinations and prior to vaccine trials. That would then imply the mutations popped up on the radar of researchers in sick patients that were not vaccinated.
Yet, the probability is extremely low for a fully vaccinated person to cause a virus mutation that results in a Variant of Interest or a Variant of Concern even if the vaccinated person has a breakthrough infection...
Breakthrough infections that result in a severe Covid infection are rare in North America which is one of the reasons our hospitals have Covid patients, ICU admission, and Deaths from those that are not vaccinated.
Therefore, the key is to look at the hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and Deaths in comparing those in the population not vaccinated versus those in the population of fully vaccinated. It's critical especially in populations that have high vaccinations.
Here in North America...our vaccination rate / vaccine mandates are directly correlated with our declining Covid numbers that include hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and Deaths. It's the one key fact those posting misinformation can not run around here in North America Covid statistics.
Just as important, as stated multiple times the past few months...most of the severe Covid infections in North America that result in hospitalization or Death have been those not vaccinated.
We're doing good now as in getting better.
wrbtrader
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