The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
I do disagree with his take that future supply halvenings cant be priced in before hand by markets. He bases this belief on markets like stocks and IPO lockups. I have actually traded lots of lockups back a few years ago.
They feel so easy. A company has to unlock a huge amount of shares and insiders will dump them into the market because they are long from much lower prices, easy short right?
Except, all shorts (and lots of longs) know that and they short ahead of time, the borrow rate goes up quite a bit. The better the short, the higher the borrow rate, lots of times, it would be pretty hard to get shares AT ALL.
This lead to short squeezes, sometimes massive ones. You have to be a extremely good trader to make money off these, net of borrow fees, buyins (when the broker asks for its shares back, forcing you to cover), volatility induced mistakes (good luck holding through big squeeze), etc. The "studies" only show excess profits because they are written by academics that couldn't trade anything to save their lifes
In the real world, there are only excess profits to outstanding traders, everbody else gets lambasted trying to trade lockups. So, its pretty much like any other catalyst (earnings, news, etc)
Also, QEs work very much in an opposite fashion, there is usually a big bull move up in the weeks/months leading up to an announcement, but once the Fed is actually buying bonds, they go down (and yields rise).
Also, I see no reason why a market couldn't have a speculative boom in the run-up to a big catalyst and then actually sell-off once the catalyst came. I see that all the time. This is not to say that it cant go higher after the sell-off works itself out, it might, and the lower supply could help that. But without demand, that lower supply wont do jack
They feel so easy. A company has to unlock a huge amount of shares and insiders will dump them into the market because they are long from much lower prices, easy short right?
Except, all shorts (and lots of longs) know that and they short ahead of time, the borrow rate goes up quite a bit. The better the short, the higher the borrow rate, lots of times, it would be pretty hard to get shares AT ALL.
This lead to short squeezes, sometimes massive ones. You have to be a extremely good trader to make money off these, net of borrow fees, buyins (when the broker asks for its shares back, forcing you to cover), volatility induced mistakes (good luck holding through big squeeze), etc. The "studies" only show excess profits because they are written by academics that couldn't trade anything to save their lifes
In the real world, there are only excess profits to outstanding traders, everbody else gets lambasted trying to trade lockups. So, its pretty much like any other catalyst (earnings, news, etc)
Also, QEs work very much in an opposite fashion, there is usually a big bull move up in the weeks/months leading up to an announcement, but once the Fed is actually buying bonds, they go down (and yields rise).
Also, I see no reason why a market couldn't have a speculative boom in the run-up to a big catalyst and then actually sell-off once the catalyst came. I see that all the time. This is not to say that it cant go higher after the sell-off works itself out, it might, and the lower supply could help that. But without demand, that lower supply wont do jack
If crypto markets were to face a surprise bear market, there is actually something great about that which is: it allows people to catch up with the space, in terms of the tech/innovation, to create new projects, to learn how to program in it, to open new crypto businesses, to own top coins at great prices, to own historic NFTs at low prices etc
The world is massively short those things, and institutions are starting to realize. For bulls right now the situation is the following:
A) If things go higher, you make a lot
b) If things go lower, it takes longer, but you make even more
The odds that it is all bubble and it will all go to $0, just keep shrinking by the day. When central banks are looking into developing blockchain technology, its a validation of the technology, which makes historical crypto items like BTC or emerging more powerful tech like ETH, be worth even more
The world is massively short those things, and institutions are starting to realize. For bulls right now the situation is the following:
A) If things go higher, you make a lot
b) If things go lower, it takes longer, but you make even more
The odds that it is all bubble and it will all go to $0, just keep shrinking by the day. When central banks are looking into developing blockchain technology, its a validation of the technology, which makes historical crypto items like BTC or emerging more powerful tech like ETH, be worth even more
This is a real possibility. Gensler is coming after DeFi before NFTs, I think. NFTs are too niche, I worry about what he will do to DeFi. Of course, you can't truly regulate this, because you can always interact with the smart contract directly with no real webpage (or using a simple page like etherscan) but its going to hurt projects for a while when they mandate the people behind it to remove things off the UI, add KYC (which is completely stupid. What will happen then? I suppose people will setup secondary front ends (run by the community) in servers outside the US, perhaps on IPFS which would make it really decentralized and unstoppable. But that might take a while and I'm sure politicians will be threating people with arrest, so it could hurt the appetite for DeFi for a period, I dunno
Curio cards is one of the original NFT projects on Ethereum and I think it is a bit undervalued right now
https://www.startwithnfts.com/posts...curio-cards-using-sales-volume-and-market-cap
I picked a card up today. As a long as ETH is around, I think these cards will appreciate in ETH terms because more and more people will want to own such a history and well made project. They support the artists quite well and people like to reward that
https://www.startwithnfts.com/posts...curio-cards-using-sales-volume-and-market-cap
I picked a card up today. As a long as ETH is around, I think these cards will appreciate in ETH terms because more and more people will want to own such a history and well made project. They support the artists quite well and people like to reward that
If you tell a 15 year old that lives in a rich country that this is a sample of the future of art
https://t.co/K5sYql0Duf?amp=1
They will say "obviously dumbass". if you tell a 50 year old, especially if he is in finance, you will hear a lecture about the Fed and how none of this matters. He will not disclose that his tech predictions have been wrong for 20 years, but he will sound very sure of himself
Sometimes people cant see shit that is right in front of their noses, I dunno why
https://t.co/K5sYql0Duf?amp=1
They will say "obviously dumbass". if you tell a 50 year old, especially if he is in finance, you will hear a lecture about the Fed and how none of this matters. He will not disclose that his tech predictions have been wrong for 20 years, but he will sound very sure of himself
Sometimes people cant see shit that is right in front of their noses, I dunno why
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/115166/binance-mandatory-kyc-regulatory-pressure
Binance showing their true colors. Meanwhile they are charging retail $20 and $10 for ETH and BTC withdraws, when network fees are like $2 and $0.3, effectively, taxing everybody. When are these incompentents going to force KYC in everyone that uses BSC?
Binance showing their true colors. Meanwhile they are charging retail $20 and $10 for ETH and BTC withdraws, when network fees are like $2 and $0.3, effectively, taxing everybody. When are these incompentents going to force KYC in everyone that uses BSC?