I think this stuff can help, but at the end of the day if you think about that this is scientifically, there is not very strong evidence that it works.
Why do we think a Moderna vaccine works? Because we have several double blind placebo controlled trials saying that it works, so we can make predictions that a person vaccined is unlikely to struggle with covid as someone who is not. We dont have a correlation study as the foundation, which is a much weaker form of evidence. We certaintly dont have a correlation study with a tiny sample size backing the whole thing. That would be crazy
What are statistics as applied to blockchain investing? Its a correlation study ("it happened in 2017 and prices went down") with a tiny sample size (often samples of 1 or 2). No one would make strong predictions in any field using correlations with tiny samples, but in markets, people literally bet their life on it. Which is nuts. Especially given that market data is a 'extremistan' data set, which makes statistical work even MORE unreliable (and Taleb does good work explaining that on the Black Swan). The human body and the data it provides is a lot more predictable, markets are not. To have a lot of confidence in correlational studies with tiny samples in extremistan datasets, scientifically, doesnt make sense
So yeah, I will take a look at onchain stats, but I dont trust the predictions that come out of these numbers like most people. People like they sense of control that gives but I believe that is false confidence
Sorry slow at this, but association fallacy or strawman?
Anyway, I put all my eggs in one basket and I watch the basket very very carefully
You say that I have a better understanding of bitcoin and cryptos and I agree with you. I have spent so much time in this space. I compile the bitcoin desktop software from github source
I've compiled other coins from source, gave me an advantage when Raven coin did not come up with a Windows client when it was first released and I was able to solo-mine 700,000 coins in the first 2 weeks after release using AWS VPS , I can tell you other coins that I've done similar things over many years, i.e. DIEM and DIEM v2, and other coins that have died, Chikun coin, etc
And I think the reason that you see these things as mumbo-jumbo science is that you do not believe in the way cryptos work at the fundamental level
I'm afraid to venture to other forums here on ET, I'll be exposed as clueless in many a subject, Dunning-Kruger effect is very much a fear of mine
I feel comfortable only discussing bitcoin and cryptos as I put a lot of efforts learning the ins and outs of it. On-chain analytics is at the heart of blockchain public ledger
No one can lie on the blockchain, especially not at the amounts of bitcoin needed to move this market and this is a global market, as I mentioned on my previous post, Israeli fund, Singapore Sovereign wealth fund, and New Zealand pension fund
We will see footprints in the blockchain, just as the FBI and other US agencies are tracking the criminals through Chainalysis efforts
I'm afraid one day you will be a bitcoin non-believer and I suspect the reason is that you're not a crypto believer of the ideologies. If that happens, I do hope that you would have profited much from being on the long side
As you said, time will tell how things turn out for you and me. You and I and many cryptos players believe the bull market will end next year, and how we execute at the end whether it's a month or several months before
and after will dictate how well we come out of this cycle
j/k