The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

Daal said:
Yes. But I dont drink a lot of the kool-aid that is out there. I have been trading and investing for a long-time and I noticed that people are not rational at bottoms and at tops, and gurus are so bad but it doesnt seem that way because they talk so well.

I recall David Rosenberg talking about the S&P500 staying in a range of 400-600 back in early 2009 and how stocks weren't a buy. I recall Mohammed El-erian calling the covid crash to a T and after stocks imploded by 30%, he said he was ONLY 'nibbling' in stocks and was pissed at other gurus for calling investors to invest (stocks are up 100% since then). I recall the massive bullishness around commodities in 2008, how there were stories about how we were running out of oil, how Jim Rogers was saying the bull in commodities had at least another decade. Right before commodities were the worst sector for years. I recall Ian Balina having a $5M crypto portfolio in 2017/2018, then getting hacked losing millions, and then hodling his garbage ICOs and blowing through most of the rest. Now he has a service to earn fees.

You seem to respect gurus too much, and they can lead you to do dumb mistakes. These people's skills are a lot worse than you think. The best traders and investors are unknown, you would never hear about them because they dont make it to mainstream. And a lot of them make their money and retire to live a good life. They dont have to run services

My goal is to be unemotional and rational at the top and the bottom. To make good decisions. Lots of these gurus just want to maximize their image and their fees, not to trade optimally, because most of them can't trade at all
More...

I don't mean to offend you, apologies if I did

I'm only speaking specifically about yours and my crypto investments

I'm open book that I plan to cash out everything and hodl 10 bitcoins when I deemed the bull market is over

I realize you have a problem at my choice of signaling of the end of bull market, but nonetheless, I do not plan to hodl everything through a bear market cycle

I see on your other posts that you plan to scale out with your own plans. Got it and wish you the best

I also plan to cash out some on predetermined portfolio valuation as mentioned before, recently opened a Gemini account and plan to use it this cash out as during a market parabolic tops that happened in 2017, the exchanges were having issues so the more exchange accounts the better
 
johnarb said:
2. There is a strong support around $53K. That's a key level as it's a $1T market cap for bitcoin validating it as a true investment asset
More...
I was just about to point out that my data shows the recent drop came to 50.5K, but I see that other exchanges have the low just above 53k. Looks like the Kraken moment all over again where ETH dropped far lower on that exchange than on others. I have my platform set up to show prices from Bitfinex, simply because they had data going back years, but from what I'm reading Binance seems to be a much bigger player now. Any thoughts on which exchange you use for your data? I'm charting on Sierra Charts and seem to only have either Bitfinex or Binance, but even for Binance, I don't see straight BTCUSD. Maybe its the BTCUSD_210924 which is most recent? Here is what I got.

2021-04-19--1301.20.png
 
NoahA said:
I was just about to point out that my data shows the recent drop came to 50.5K, but I see that other exchanges have the low just above 53k. Looks like the Kraken moment all over again where ETH dropped far lower on that exchange than on others. I have my platform set up to show prices from Bitfinex, simply because they had data going back years, but from what I'm reading Binance seems to be a much bigger player now. Any thoughts on which exchange you use for your data? I'm charting on Sierra Charts and seem to only have either Bitfinex or Binance, but even for Binance, I don't see straight BTCUSD. Maybe its the BTCUSD_210924 which is most recent? Here is what I got.

View attachment 257219
More...

I have a dedicated monitor (a Lenovo Yoga A940) that has side-by-side chrome browsers set to tradingview btcusd and ethusd on bitstamp, bnbusd and cakeusd seet to binance, and a number of other coins

I monitor, nexo on uniswap, set to 1000 coins to USDT, another chrome browser in a window

My main monitor is a 49" super ultrawide so when I do have to make a trade, I can have side by side, local wallet x exchange, so no mistakes, double and triple checking addresses and amounts and what not

However, I'm not an active trader and that's an understatement, I hardly make a trade if any on a weekly basis or even months of no trades...
 
NoahA said:
I have my platform set up to show prices from Bitfinex, simply because they had data going back years, but from what I'm reading Binance seems to be a much bigger player now. Any thoughts on which exchange you use for your data? I'm charting on Sierra Charts and seem to only have either Bitfinex or Binance, but even for Binance, I don't see straight BTCUSD. Maybe its the BTCUSD_210924 which is most recent? Here is what I got.
More...

You talk like you know things but then you say stuff like the bolded above ^.

Bitfinex hasn't been the leading crypto exchange since 2017. Since 2018 Binance has been the clear leader and that's a fact.

The more I read your posts the more I am convinced you are a crypto bear troll or you have severe Dunning Kruger.
 
I just setup a BTC and ETH futures arb trade on Kraken, Binance and FTX. Its not with significant size, I'm just trying to understand it better, get familiar with their platforms, margin requirements and liquidation policies

My idea here is this: Once I get neutral to bearish crypto (not now, but in the future), I might not sell it all and move it to fiat cash. I might keep half or 1/3 of my crypto and run futures arb trades with them. That way I collect double digit expected gains but more importantly, they will work as a low risk SHORT on crypto

I'm noticing that the futures premium expands during periods of price appreciation and collapses during crashes. So if take my BTC and short an equivalent amount on Kraken futures (say 2 months out). I'm hedged against a collapse in price, not only hedged but I will profit from it because the premium will collapse if markets crash hard. The basis could even go negative if the crash is big enough. I can also setup low bids out there to cover my futures, just in case there is a flash crash of liquidations (say, taking BTC from $150,000 to $75,000 for a few minutes).
But even without the huge crash, if a 30% annualized premium comes in a week, the actual annualized gain is over 100%.

That way I can profit from the rise and then safely profit from the crash.

Its pretty much what I did in 2017 when I shorted GBTC at huge premiums to BTC and made money as the premium came in with the collapse in the BTC price. It was a lowish risk way to bet against crypto

In the case of the futures I believe the risk can be even lower because there is always the expiration day to make sure the trade is closed out close to the spot price. Whereas GBTC could have kept a huge premium forever (and I had to pay, short interest fees)

I'm very excited about the possibility of playing this trade this year. It might be a huge money maker because at the BTC top, I bet the futures premium will be off the charts as wild speculation will take place. Imagine shorting at 40% annualized premiums (2 months out) and having that spread come in 2 days later? It would be super sweet profit
 
@Daal Just an FYI the basis collapses and stays negligible in bear markets trending lower. You will not get anywhere near the return you are expecting annualized.

Basis inverts in fast selloffs, see last Saturday night. Futures traded below 50K on many exchanges while spot never did.
 
tsznecki said:
@Daal Just an FYI the basis collapses and stays negligible in bear markets trending lower. You will not get anywhere near the return you are expecting annualized.

Basis inverts in fast selloffs, see last Saturday night. Futures traded below 50K on many exchanges while spot never did.
More...
Well, but thats a good thing. Because I will put on these trades (with real size) BEFORE the bear market. So I will profit from the switch of big premiums to no premiums. I'm sure at the top or close to it the premium will be huge, thats when I will be short it. In fact, it will be one of my signals that the top is occuring (big premiums and wide futures speculation)
 
I dont expect to continiously make money on this trade. But rather, to make a bundle and move on. I might even choose a further out contract to really lock some good rates to be short if. But yeah, once the collapse happens, the premiums are probably gone for a year or two
 
If he suceeds, Galaxy can become such a powerhouse. They would be the Berkshire Hathaway of crypto, buying up great firms and building a great portfolio of crypto assets by issuing stock. They could become that $100B company I mentioned before. He is invested in over 50 companies (including Bitgo) if he gets the chance to buy all the ones that suceed, then I like where this company is going
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top