I purchased a World of Woman NFT as well. This a woky NFT that will attract a lot of women and woke people as well. Its unique in that respect, as they dont like the whole cyberpunk culture of crypto. So this might become a community token for woke people and women. Its supported by Vee and Pranksy so there is traction there. Lots of things might get airdropped into this community as virtue signaling projects try to signal virtues
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The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Flipped the other half of these at 44.5K (first half were at 39.5K). The rest of my crypto I'm holding for much higher. 2018/2019 was such a great opportunity for investors to accumulate cheap BTC/ETH/NFTs that I'm not afraid of any bear markets, they are to be welcome not fearedThis is pure panic, just bought more BTC at 31700
I realized that one of the flaws of my crypto investing approach was trying to understand and invest in alt coins from time to time, they are too difficult to understand, it requires very deep expertise. NFTs are a completely different animal, they are much simpler. They were the thing I was looking for all along. This is not to say that there arent frauds, pump and dumps and plenty of 0s, there are. But the analysis is a lot easier
Are NFTs stupid? No
https://open.spotify.com/episode/3iFeprBgAbQduhg3GnetzW?si=2fa03263ebff404b
https://open.spotify.com/episode/3iFeprBgAbQduhg3GnetzW?si=2fa03263ebff404b
Back when Satoshibets was around (BTC casino), Bitcoiners got pissed because they knew that game was clogging the system and increasing fees (hurting adoption) all in the name of something most people dont think is that great for society. It was the good old 'free rider' problem
Well, ETH solved that
https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-supply-flips-briefly-into-deflation-as-gas-fees-spike
Now the more people go crazy over NFTs, DeFi or any random app, the more the protocol benefits
Just the other day it hit me that 1559 is very pro-cyclical and reflexive in nature. The more people use Ethereum, the more ETH is burned, the more bullish people get, the more they buy and hold it and use it, and do transactions, more is burned, etc etc. This is likely to create a large bubble in the price, at some point it will be unsustainable and it will lead to a crash, then after an initial burst of activity, people will buy less NFTs, use less DeFi, buy and hold less ETH, do less transactions, leading to less burning which leads to less excitement, more price declines and on and on
So, you get a lot of burning on the way up but not enough burning during bear markets. It makes for a very pro cyclical protocol where its important to sell/rebalance and manage risk
It might also cement BTC's advantage over ETH in terms of lower volatility, it was the case historically and I think 1559 might keep it that way. PoS and the lower ETH issuance should also increase volatility due less supply on the market (a lower float). So while ETH might eventually become more valuable in the long-run (as it becomes the major currency of the metaverse), I think (and I might have to change my mind on this at any time), its hard for BTC to lose its status as the crypto reserve asset due the better liquidity and lower volatility
Well, ETH solved that
https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-supply-flips-briefly-into-deflation-as-gas-fees-spike
Now the more people go crazy over NFTs, DeFi or any random app, the more the protocol benefits
Just the other day it hit me that 1559 is very pro-cyclical and reflexive in nature. The more people use Ethereum, the more ETH is burned, the more bullish people get, the more they buy and hold it and use it, and do transactions, more is burned, etc etc. This is likely to create a large bubble in the price, at some point it will be unsustainable and it will lead to a crash, then after an initial burst of activity, people will buy less NFTs, use less DeFi, buy and hold less ETH, do less transactions, leading to less burning which leads to less excitement, more price declines and on and on
So, you get a lot of burning on the way up but not enough burning during bear markets. It makes for a very pro cyclical protocol where its important to sell/rebalance and manage risk
It might also cement BTC's advantage over ETH in terms of lower volatility, it was the case historically and I think 1559 might keep it that way. PoS and the lower ETH issuance should also increase volatility due less supply on the market (a lower float). So while ETH might eventually become more valuable in the long-run (as it becomes the major currency of the metaverse), I think (and I might have to change my mind on this at any time), its hard for BTC to lose its status as the crypto reserve asset due the better liquidity and lower volatility
That said, there is one interesting thing I learned since I got more into NFT's. ETH is the unit of account, the store of value and the means of exchange in the NFTs, ETH is completelty money there. If you look at cryptokitties, they have more of less maintained their ETH price for years, despite all the ups and downs of ETH in fiat terms. A lot of NFT investors that I see, they think in terms of ETH. NFT investing is just a way to accumulate more ETH and I'm told that when there is a bear market in crypto, you dont really see a crash in the premium "crown jewel's" type NFTs. Their prices hold up (In ETH) but the liquidity completely dries up (so, its similar to high end real estate in the real world)
Almost everything is priced in ETH and paid in ETH (or Wrapped ETH). The profits are calculated in ETH in a lot of websites and most people quote prices to each other in ETH
I suspect as digital world become bigger, this will only increase. At some point, the digital economy will be so large, I bet a lot of people wont even care much what ETH is doing in fiat, because you will be able to do so much with ETH itself in the metaverse that whether its up 25% or down 25% will matter little
Almost everything is priced in ETH and paid in ETH (or Wrapped ETH). The profits are calculated in ETH in a lot of websites and most people quote prices to each other in ETH
I suspect as digital world become bigger, this will only increase. At some point, the digital economy will be so large, I bet a lot of people wont even care much what ETH is doing in fiat, because you will be able to do so much with ETH itself in the metaverse that whether its up 25% or down 25% will matter little
That said, there is one interesting thing I learned since I got more into NFT's. ETH is the unit of account, the store of value and the means of exchange in the NFTs, ETH is completelty money there. If you look at cryptokitties, they have more of less maintained their ETH price for years, despite all the ups and downs of ETH in fiat terms. A lot of NFT investors that I see, they think in terms of ETH. NFT investing is just a way to accumulate more ETH and I'm told that when there is a bear market in crypto, you dont really see a crash in the premium "crown jewel's" type NFTs. Their prices hold up (In ETH) but the liquidity completely dries up (so, its similar to high end real estate in the real world)
Almost everything is priced in ETH and paid in ETH (or Wrapped ETH). The profits are calculated in ETH in a lot of websites and most people quote prices to each other in ETH
I suspect as digital world become bigger, this will only increase. At some point, the digital economy will be so large, I bet a lot of people wont even care much what ETH is doing in fiat, because you will be able to do so much with ETH itself in the metaverse that whether its up 25% or down 25% will matter little
I suppose this could eventually anchor the price of ETH to the real world and decrease its volatility. If ETH becomes the money of the digital economy, when its down a lot, people will use fiat to buy ETH and accumulate digital assets (land, NFTs, do digital business, etc). And when its up a lot, people will sell digital assets, ETH to buy fiat because fiat assets are cheap relative to digital
So ETH could become a currency and the digital world, a country, and it would have similar dynamics to purchasing power parity that fiat currencies have
https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/09/f...dElyr7s90ZOSDiKvRyG_ReN672lI565S1letHPIVRq6r0
Little by little this stuff is happening. At some point, entire concerts might be held in digital worlds
Little by little this stuff is happening. At some point, entire concerts might be held in digital worlds
This crypto punk NFT phenomena disproves Taleb's assertion that BTC has no utility, unlike gold which can be used as jewlery.
Punk's are a signal of wealth and status inside of crypto, people know how much they are worth and the people that own them display that in their social media, signaling their wealth and status (similar to Picassos or great cars or watches).
BTC is similar in that respect, because it is limited in supply and everybody knows the price of Bitcoin. When I tell people I invest/trade bitcoin they usually think or say 'you must be making a lot of money', so even lay people are aware of the price
Unlike NFTs, BTC can be fractionalized down to many decimals. But, guess what? NFTs and Punks can be fractionalized as well. There are many services that do that such as fractional.art and NFTX (Most ERC-20 tokens can be fractionalized down to 18 decimals). Yet, if someone were to own 1/1000 of a punk, that person would have not have much status. They might get some of the economic returns of that fraction but the status would be dilluted. I dont think a lot of people would be proud to own a tiny fraction of a Picasso. Its negative status because it shows that you CANT AFFORD a Picasso
There is also governance issues as fractional.art structures can force you to sell when you dont want to (crypto bear markets). Also, you dont "feel" like an owner owning 1/1000
In BTC, a lot of people have an obsession with owning a "full BTC". They dont feel part of the revolution and enjoy much status owning tiny fractions. This makes BTC a quasi NFT where there are 21M individual units that provide that status and fractions that provide economic returns but not much status (or worse, negative status). BTC owners display their status on social media by talking and defending Bitcoin like a religion (also cheering the price), whereas with Punks they just change their profile picture, same idea, but differently expressed
So, in a lot of ways, BTC is more of a highly liquid and transferable collectible, than a currency. ETH has the digital world layers in order to cement itself as a currency (like in NFTs, as I wrote about earlier) but BTC seems to work more as a scare piece of art that is being distributed globally to only so many people. Only so many people will get to be owners of a full BTC collectible when the world is massively digital, the rest will be relegated to owning fractions and not enjoying the status of full owners
Punk's are a signal of wealth and status inside of crypto, people know how much they are worth and the people that own them display that in their social media, signaling their wealth and status (similar to Picassos or great cars or watches).
BTC is similar in that respect, because it is limited in supply and everybody knows the price of Bitcoin. When I tell people I invest/trade bitcoin they usually think or say 'you must be making a lot of money', so even lay people are aware of the price
Unlike NFTs, BTC can be fractionalized down to many decimals. But, guess what? NFTs and Punks can be fractionalized as well. There are many services that do that such as fractional.art and NFTX (Most ERC-20 tokens can be fractionalized down to 18 decimals). Yet, if someone were to own 1/1000 of a punk, that person would have not have much status. They might get some of the economic returns of that fraction but the status would be dilluted. I dont think a lot of people would be proud to own a tiny fraction of a Picasso. Its negative status because it shows that you CANT AFFORD a Picasso
There is also governance issues as fractional.art structures can force you to sell when you dont want to (crypto bear markets). Also, you dont "feel" like an owner owning 1/1000
In BTC, a lot of people have an obsession with owning a "full BTC". They dont feel part of the revolution and enjoy much status owning tiny fractions. This makes BTC a quasi NFT where there are 21M individual units that provide that status and fractions that provide economic returns but not much status (or worse, negative status). BTC owners display their status on social media by talking and defending Bitcoin like a religion (also cheering the price), whereas with Punks they just change their profile picture, same idea, but differently expressed
So, in a lot of ways, BTC is more of a highly liquid and transferable collectible, than a currency. ETH has the digital world layers in order to cement itself as a currency (like in NFTs, as I wrote about earlier) but BTC seems to work more as a scare piece of art that is being distributed globally to only so many people. Only so many people will get to be owners of a full BTC collectible when the world is massively digital, the rest will be relegated to owning fractions and not enjoying the status of full owners
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If this view that BTC is a collectible (The original NFT) and that ETH is digital currency is correct then they can co-exist peacefully. No one has to win over the other because they both will have their economic value and audiences
I came to this realization when analyzing NFTs. Some projects have small floats (100-1000 NFTs issued) some have huge floats like Crytokitties (4B max over the long-term for total kitties but 50K Gen0's cap)
These small floats are easier to appreciate and move because it doesnt take that much money to move their price. Bigger floats require more liquidity and buying power to move their price. But I saw plenty of NFTs that issued hundreds of NFTs that are exactly the same and yet people still valued them. NBA top shots are like that, for every given shot there are usually hundreds of owners, yet people are still proud and happy to own them. Curio cards (the original ETH NFT project) are like that as well, yet even though there are dozens of other owners, people are still happy to own the cards. Pokemon cards are like that as well, they are not exclusive, rare cards are owned by many people
This would not work globally for most things because most people aren't that big of fans of basketball/pokemon but BTC is like an NFT that everybody can like because it resembles a currency, something that everybody owns as part of economic life. It can even function as one but since it has no anchors in the real world, its more like a collectible (NFT)
It can be a volatile collectible because it has a liquid market but its a collectible nonetheless
It is a NFT with the biggest float of all at 21M but you must compare the float with the size of the target market, not in absolute terms. The target market is like 2-3B people, 21M float is actually a pretty small NFT for that.
So Taleb is wrong because he doesnt realize how people care about owning that 1BTC amount (to signal wealth, foresight, intelligence), that's the price that is quoted everywhere and that's the price that you feel like an owner. Even I have irrational plans on how to avoid selling too much that I eventually own less than 1 BTC, and I'm supposed to be a professional.
In a lot of ways, BTC is like the ultimate NFT even if technologically it eats dust to ETH, historical things tend to have value to people. BTC is the original crypto and no one can change that, all it has to do is to work and remain decentralized
I came to this realization when analyzing NFTs. Some projects have small floats (100-1000 NFTs issued) some have huge floats like Crytokitties (4B max over the long-term for total kitties but 50K Gen0's cap)
These small floats are easier to appreciate and move because it doesnt take that much money to move their price. Bigger floats require more liquidity and buying power to move their price. But I saw plenty of NFTs that issued hundreds of NFTs that are exactly the same and yet people still valued them. NBA top shots are like that, for every given shot there are usually hundreds of owners, yet people are still proud and happy to own them. Curio cards (the original ETH NFT project) are like that as well, yet even though there are dozens of other owners, people are still happy to own the cards. Pokemon cards are like that as well, they are not exclusive, rare cards are owned by many people
This would not work globally for most things because most people aren't that big of fans of basketball/pokemon but BTC is like an NFT that everybody can like because it resembles a currency, something that everybody owns as part of economic life. It can even function as one but since it has no anchors in the real world, its more like a collectible (NFT)
It can be a volatile collectible because it has a liquid market but its a collectible nonetheless
It is a NFT with the biggest float of all at 21M but you must compare the float with the size of the target market, not in absolute terms. The target market is like 2-3B people, 21M float is actually a pretty small NFT for that.
So Taleb is wrong because he doesnt realize how people care about owning that 1BTC amount (to signal wealth, foresight, intelligence), that's the price that is quoted everywhere and that's the price that you feel like an owner. Even I have irrational plans on how to avoid selling too much that I eventually own less than 1 BTC, and I'm supposed to be a professional.
In a lot of ways, BTC is like the ultimate NFT even if technologically it eats dust to ETH, historical things tend to have value to people. BTC is the original crypto and no one can change that, all it has to do is to work and remain decentralized
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