The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

ETH is already burning several times the issuance it will have when it is merged to the PoS network (and PoW issuance ceases), it will probably continue to be bought on dips and have an uptrend until the merge, then it might face a sell the news event around the merger date
 
The essence of the ETH trade

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https://ultrasound.money/
 
Random thoughts on NFTs:

I think a key component of the difference between a NFT and a FT (fungible token) is the total supply of tokens by that issuer. If someone issues so many NFTs even if they are said to be 'unique', they are not in the macro context. How many are too many? I dont know, it probably depends on the situation. Crypto Punks have done pretty well with a 10,000 supply. A lot more than that is probably a mistake by the issuer (its similar to a central bank over printing the currency and it then becomes worthless), less is probably ideal for most given that the punks were blessed with a digital holy conception (they were the first and were airdropped, the makes it special in the eyes of people, that is pretty much uncopiable. The ugly GIF is irrelevant, which is why finance people are struggling understanding it)

So, when someone asks 'what is an NFT?' I think the technical answer is 'its a token issued by somebody in very limited amounts'. If Marvel issued 10M NFTs, that is not an NFT, its more like a coin (which might or might not be valuable) because people know more will probably come and whatever unique attributes they have dont matter much because more like that will come. But if they issue 1,000 total, all of the sudden it is a collectible

But nobody can know for sure that they will stop at 1,000 and I dont think people will trust corporations or individuas they dont know to not overissue tokens. I suppose market participants will assume the tokens will be overprinted and they will choose tokens based on other attributes, attributes that are really hard to copy

I guess the question people need to asks themselves before they buy an NFT is 'if this issuer minted another 1M NFTs, will this still hold its value?'. For the vast majority of NFTs the answer will be negative but for some, it will be positive and they will be worth a lot. So, in a way, its like angel investing in culture

These ideas make me also realize how ETH has NFT like characteristics, because it will be the only crypto currency with negative issuance and network effects. So its possible that the 'ultra sound money' meme will take away some SoV demand from BTC , how much I dont know but I bet that unique trait will be more and more valuable to people
 
Daal said:
So, when someone asks 'what is an NFT?' I think the technical answer is 'its a token issued by somebody in very limited amounts'. If Marvel issued 10M NFTs, that is not an NFT, its more like a coin (which might or might not be valuable) because people know more will probably come and whatever unique attributes they have dont matter much because more like that will come. But if they issue 1,000 total, all of the sudden it is a collectible
More...

In the 10M situation, the "better" NFTs would be like higher denomination notes and the others would be like low denomination notes or coins. Some are more valuable than others but likely any big Marvel fan would accept them in exchange for products or services. So I think, in a way, over issued NFTs will work (and be priced) more like coins rather than NFTs. And coins have to compete with BTC, ETH and other coins so they aren't likely to do super well in terms of capturing value, especially given that the issuer is centralized and most likely greedy.
But in the 1,000 NFTs situation, they can't work as coins as there is not enough of them, so they are more like colectibles
So, this NFT game seems to be all about signaling to market participants how scarce the asset is. The more credible the signal, the better. This also rewards early adopters because they are also making history (like Beeple), which is a unique trait
 
Paoul calling the ETH trade the 'greatest trade'
https://twitter.com/x/status/1423745912707420164

He didnt mention the expectations around the PoS merge though. Given how smooth EIP 1559 was, the expectations around the merge will now be very optimistic. And that merge will have the supply shock effect of a 3 BTC halvenings. I bet ETH rallies into it, maybe even goes parabolic and then there will be a sell the news event right before it or right after it
 
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