The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Fed Funds Futures Go Green: February 28, 2011

Beginning Sunday, February 27, 2011 (trade date Monday, February 28, 2011), CME Group will extend the listing cycle of 30-Day Fed Funds futures by offering a third year of monthly expirations, effectively listing 36 consecutive monthly expiries for trading. The "Green" Fed Funds futures expirations will be traded both on CME Globex and in open outcry.

This expansion of Fed Funds expirations is in response to growing customer demand for deferred CME Group Short-Term Interest Rate (STIR) products, as indicated by a 400 percent increase in second-year ("Red") Fed Funds futures volume, and a 43 percent increase in "Green" Eurodollar futures volume in 2010.

With the additional expirations, effective February 28 the Fed Funds futures listings will be as follows:

* First-year ("White") Fed Funds futures expiries, February 2011 - January 2012
* Second-year ("Red") Fed Funds futures expiries, February 2012 - January 2013
* Third-year ("Green") Fed Funds futures expiries, February 2013 - January 2014

All CME Globex trading functionality currently available for White and Red Fed Funds futures spreads will be extended to the Green contracts, including calendars, butterflies, condors and strips. Implied functionality will be available for all calendar and butterfly spreads (except spreads that include the expiring month contract trading in quarter tick increments).
 
Maybe she was called by somebody sympathetic to her view i.e. Pubs run the committees, maybe the chair would like somebody up there explaining what a mess municipal finance is in order to pave the way for bankruptcy, breaking of union contracts, etc. ... I don't know if this is the case, but it may be.

I assume she could choose not to testify, but she probably loves it - it's good for business.
 
Calling it a theory is a bit much. Pretty typical stuff - join an organization, go along and get along at the start, then start carving your own space (or alternatively remain blended into the group for the rest of your career).

Face facts: your bleating like it was some sort of victory for your Bernanke and Greenspan are gods theory because a few guys joined the FOMC and didn't immediately dissent was silly. Fisher was the first strike, there will likely be others. Even if there never is a dissent doesn't change the fact that its highly likely the world will be sitting around in a couple of years scratching its head at to how the Fed yet again engineered another massive boom/bust cycle in asset prices.

Personally, I couldn't care less if there is ever a dissent. It's true inside baseball stuff. Fed policy is what Ben and Tim want it to be.
 
The implied prob of the dec ZQ fed futures contract is 70% for a rate hike. Seems insane, I'm controlling my urge to buy more, I'm already quite long. As it currently stands 1 rate hike makes longs lose 6.5bps and no hike makes about 30bps(assuming EFF will go down some more)

You only get hurt on 2 hikes or more. But you have to consider that is already Feb and fed is on hold for about six months(No chance of QE and rate hikes at the same time plus the extended period has not been removed)
This leaves the august and on period as a possibly time for a hike but the UR will still be high(the drop to 9% was due artificial factors) and inflation low, ok iexpectations might rise high but look at the history of iexpectations they tend to float around 2%, the likelihood that they will rise a lot AND employment will soar is CERTAINLY less than 70%
 
I bought a bit more, as of right now on no hike I will have a gain of about 21% of my networth on 2 hikes I will have a loss of a similar amount. On 1 hike, I lose less than 5%

On 3 hikes or more I lose a lot but I'm still young, I can afford to take these less than 1% risks. I do know I have the positive expectation behind my back
 
In other, more momentous news, Uncle Axel is out of the race!!!! There were rumors circulating earlier that he's joining Deutsche, which would be the ultimate sellout. Shocking, innit?
 
Quote from Daal:
I'm sure its for 'personal reasons'
More...
You bet it's for "personal reasons"... A few million personal reasons, I would imagine. The irony is killing me here! The great inflation fighter, the selfless, straight-talking, "I don't do diplomacy bullsh1t" uberhawk has been bought, hook, line & sinker.

Of course, maybe he was squeezed out, 'cause he just couldn't deal with the internal politics.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top