The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

"Warsh’s term would have run through January 2018; most Fed governors don’t serve out their full terms. His resignation opens a second vacancy on the seven-member Board of Governors and leaves Elizabeth Duke, a former community banker, as the only governor not appointed or reappointed by Obama.

Duke’s term expires in January 2012, and she can stay after that until a replacement is appointed."

After Duke's leaves, Obama will have 3 picks while he runs for reelection in 2012. This is going to the make the FOMC dovish like hell
 
Rick Santelli, a veteran from the pits, seem to be aware that the Fed Futures deferred contracts tend to price in things other than true probabilities of Fed hikes
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1788949240&play=1

Says there is quite a difference between the next meeting implied probs and what the longer term contracts say. I'd agree with this, the next meeting contract wont contain significant traces of term premia so the probs are more likely to be correct
 
I am not one to gloat, but here's a BBG headline from earlier today...

BN 14:38 Siva-Jothy Said to Shut SemperMacro Fund After Poor Performance

Full story should be available later on the BBG website, I imagine.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

I am not one to gloat, but here's a BBG headline from earlier today...

BN 14:38 Siva-Jothy Said to Shut SemperMacro Fund After Poor Performance

Full story should be available later on the BBG website, I imagine.
More...

Ironic given that he loves to bet on the front end. How he managed to lose money is what I want to know
 
Quote from Daal:
Ironic given that he loves to bet on the front end. How he managed to lose money is what I want to know
More...
How to lose money? Let me count the ways...

It's always the same story and it's called hubris. Once you are a "Master of Macro" and a "Mkt Wizard", it's very easy to succumb to temptation.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

How to lose money? Let me count the ways...

It's always the same story and it's called hubris. Once you are a "Master of Macro" and a "Mkt Wizard", it's very easy to succumb to temptation.
More...

True. I would not be surprised if in 5 years most of the wizards from Inside the House and Invisible hands have shutdown or went broke
 
2 year note pushing towards .90%. Won't be long before it blows through 1.0%. The UE is irrelevant. I'm here to tell you that "on the ground" here in Philadelphia, the economy is booming, things are as hot as I've ever seen them. Stores and restuarnts are packed. Mall lots full. Went to Wegman's (high end supermarket) the other night and thought I was on the floor of a rock concert - couldn't move. Home Depots are bustling again. All this with one of the worst winters I can ever remember. I can only imagine how crazy things are going to get once the temp gets above 50 again.

There's no inflation, of course - my wife brought a head of lettuce back to the shelves yesterday when informed at checkout that it cost $4.50!
 
Quote from ralph00:

2 year note pushing towards .90%. Won't be long before it blows through 1.0%. The UE is irrelevant. I'm here to tell you that "on the ground" here in Philadelphia, the economy is booming, things are as hot as I've ever seen them. Stores and restuarnts are packed. Mall lots full. Went to Wegman's (high end supermarket) the other night and thought I was on the floor of a rock concert - couldn't move. Home Depots are bustling again. All this with one of the worst winters I can ever remember. I can only imagine how crazy things are going to get once the temp gets above 50 again.

There's no inflation, of course - my wife brought a head of lettuce back to the shelves yesterday when informed at checkout that it cost $4.50!
More...

GDP is set to growth 3.5% this year with 11% of GDP deficits and more balance sheet expansion by the Fed plus 0% rates, this is hardly a strong economy. ex-government the economy is still weak
 
Yes, if the government were eliminated, the economy would weaken, and if I added 20 yards, I might have made the PGA tour.

I must deal and trade with the world that exists, and the economy is cruising along. Get your head out of Fed statements and irrelevant, outdated, poorly adjusted, manipulated government statistics and listen in on a few conference calls. While the BLS is fretting over the number of jobs gained or lost in the stagecoach industry, thousands of new positions are being created in industries that the statisticians in that bureaucracy can't even dream about.


http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/2011/01/fed-in-la-la-land-again.html

http://seekingalpha.com/tag/transcripts?source=headtabs
 
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