The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Quote from Martinghoul:

I can't see why FF effective would go lower...
More...

I believe in the baseline scenario it will. When the SFP was brought back it absorbed $200b of excess reserves from the system, the EFF quickly added about 5bps. In a new QE scenario, I believe its quite likely it will be reversed. IOR could also be cut(though the odds seem low)
Anyways, the Fed futures market is already betting EFF will go down a bit
 
Quote from Daal:

Anyways, the Fed futures market is already betting EFF will go down a bit
More...
I don't really see that, but no matter... The big puzzle at the moment is that O/N GC is trading quite a bit higher than FF Eff, so it's not clear to me at all how this all evolves.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

I don't really see that, but no matter... The big puzzle at the moment is that O/N GC is trading quite a bit higher than FF Eff, so it's not clear to me at all how this all evolves.
More...

Well, the Jan 2011 is 3bps higher than the front, I had never seen that before
 
Quote from Daal:
Well, the Jan 2011 is 3bps higher than the front, I had never seen that before
More...
Hmmm, you're 100% right and I am dead wrong. I was just looking at Dec10 and Mar11, for some reason. I'll check on this tomorrow see what gives and if anyone can offer some color on this.
 
Quote from Daal:

Rogoff on Gold
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff73/English
More...

I don't understand, and I might be prejudiced on this, why people would attribute a higher level of intrinsic risk to gold then they would to other assets.

People have gone bankrupt on betting house prices or stocks would go higher or misjudged the perceived creditworthiness of bond issuers which led them to the slaughterhouse as well.

Why does gold stands out amongst those as far as risk level goes?

I would say it doesnt.
 
Quote from ralph00:

I'm seeing the USD/JPY has returned back to the levels it was at when Japan intervened. Nice work there, BOJ.
More...

So with $25 billion you can move a currency 350 ticks for a few days. Interesting piece of data.
 
Defying everyone's expectations, the RBA did not hike interest rates last night. Aussie 90 day bills had a nice little "rate hike panic" in September - a combo of the "risk on" trade and a bs goldman report saying they expected the RBA to hike 125 bp over the coming 12 months.

While there is an undeniable mining boom going on in Oz thanks to China, the housing market and consumer spending numbers show a good deal of weakness. One could even say that housing in Oz has rolled over. I suspect the RBA will take a wait and see attitude for some time.
 
LOL at the BOJ which is at it again. Last night, they announce a rate cut and their own QE - the Yen immediately fell about 50 pips on the news, but has now recouped the entire drop and more.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top