The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

The mish guy is attacking central banks for doing QE because its a 'currency war'
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/10/global-competitive-debasement-currency.html

Perhaps he doesnt realize that he cant have that opinion and think that central banks cant do anything about deflation. Either they can devalue the currency(Both in terms of foreign exchange, that is foreign goods and services, and in terms of DOMESTIC goods and services, that is inflation) or they cant
 
That is, unless this mish dude thinks the Fed can drive down the dollar in terms of FX(that is foreign goods and services) but not domestic ones, which I dont believe makes any sense, the central banks would solve the deflation problem by driving down the FX value of the currency, say by 80% and the whole world would start buying those domestic goods which would create a lot of inflation

I think this guy goes out of his way too much to criticize the government which results in arguments that dont make much sense but it does drive up his blog readership and ad revenue
 
Quote from Daal:

That is, unless this mish dude thinks the Fed can drive down the dollar in terms of FX(that is foreign goods and services) but not domestic ones, which I dont believe makes any sense, the central banks would solve the deflation problem by driving down the FX value of the currency, say by 80% and the whole world would start buying those domestic goods which would create a lot of inflation

I think this guy goes out of his way too much to criticize the government which results in arguments that dont make much sense but it does drive up his blog readership and ad revenue
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He nailed the dollar rally in 08 but failed to adapt to what happened next because it didnt match with his analysis.

Excatly he kind of behaviour he blasted Peter Schiff for in their fued some time back.
 
Contrary to what Zero Hedge claims, M2 is not growing much

http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/


Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates M1 M2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Months from May 2010 TO Aug. 2010 9.1 3.6
6 Months from Feb. 2010 TO Aug. 2010 3.6 2.5
12 Months from Aug. 2009 TO Aug. 2010 5.9 2.8

2.8% yoy. The 10y moving average was about 9% in the 00's and 5% in the 90's. Keep in mind the velocity growth is low right now, so in theory money growth needs to be higher
 
Quote from Debaser82:

He nailed the dollar rally in 08 but failed to adapt to what happened next because it didnt match with his analysis.

Excatly he kind of behaviour he blasted Peter Schiff for in their fued some time back.
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What are your market bets right now?
 
Quote from Daal:

What are your market bets right now?
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Most of my money is in gold and gold stocks and have been for almost 3 years now.

I think after much consideration I would subscribe myself to the Jim Rogers school of investing.

Too dumb to master short term moves, so just buy what you think is undervalued and sell 10 years later.

Oil had many 30% to 50% retracements during its run from 2000 to 2008 and highest profits were there for those who waited.

Same for gold during the seventies. Rose 400%, dropped 50% and rose 800% afterwards.

As you know probably I'm european so a declining gold price with a strengthening USD reduces my risk profile a bit both for what gold itself is concerned as the gold stocks who are primarily denominated in USD.

Other then that I keep most of my cash in CHF and the rest in AUD corporate bonds.
 
Quote from Daal:

Dec 2011 ZQ seems priced for perfection, I'm tempted to sell before the Fed meeting but dont know if I should
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I think I'll hold out for the low 70s ... might hit it today.
 
Its hilarious to remember how at the start of the year the debate was when the Fed was going to raise rates and Greenlaw had the Fed hiking in September yet it was quite public information that core inflation was set to fall below 1% and the UR was not going to improve much

It appears that the Fed futures market doesnt understand the calibration the Fed has to any given level of inflation and employment.
I might take advantage of this by fading future hike scares in the UR range of 7.5-9% as I'm not quite sure the Fed would hike there(even though employment growth will be strong at that point) but we will see
 
I also remember that back on Oct or Nov 2009 there were expectations that the Fed would take off 'extended period'. The minutes never showed that was even in the agenda. It seems that the markets can misunderstand the Fed big time once and while(maybe even consistently), this is turn can turn into opportunities for profit
 
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