The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

If it turns out the commodity futures are really not the way to go and continued interest in ETF products will keep driving roll returns lower, the solution will be simple
-Stocks in resource based countries and companies
-Currencies correlated to spot prices of major commodities

Matter of fact a diversification between these three will probably be a superior bet than going all-in in any of them
 
Quote from Daal:

If it turns out the commodity futures are really not the way to go and continued interest in ETF products will keep driving roll returns lower, the solution will be simple
-Stocks in resource based countries and companies
-Currencies correlated to spot prices of major commodities

Matter of fact a diversification between these three will probably be a superior bet than going all-in in any of them
More...

The advantage of owning the currency rather than the company also is you don't run the risk of getting your assets seized by the government should true shortages occur say in the oilmarkets for example.
 
Quote from Debaser82:

The advantage of owning the currency rather than the company also is you don't run the risk of getting your assets seized by the government should true shortages occur say in the oilmarkets for example.
More...

True. There is also tax announcements, if commodities keep going, tax rates will keep going up. All 3 ways to invest have downsides, so thats why I prefer to diversify, perhaps with a bias towards one that is likely to be better than others
 
Quote from Daal:

If Montier is so sure the past will represent the future why doesnt he eat the long commodities in contango/short comm in backwardation free lunch?His net directional exposure will be close to 0(or at the very least it will be random depending where correlations go and which benchmark you are looking at) and he gets to collect his 'sure' profit
More...

Actually I believe I inverted here, you would be short contango and long backwardation
 
Quote from Daal:

Well, then I dont trust him. I dont care about his stock picks, I have no access to them, if he comes out and says the economy will have a V shaped recovery then real final sales barely eek out gains, he was wrong, even if he doubled his networth

He seem to be following a common mistake that people have when they are trading, is that they fool themselves about the 'fundamentals' in order to stay in a momentum trade. They cant get themselves to admit 'I want to stay long because its going up and I believe it will go up more, its some kind of mini-bubble but I dont care', it feels undisciplined, so they lie to themselves about the fundamentals and find a way to believe everything is fine. Now, if they delude themselves in private, I have no problem with it, the problem is when they go out in public with these statements
More...

I think you misunderstood what I said. He doesn't say "we're going to have a stronger than expected recovery" in order to get on Bloomberg. Its the other way around - when Bloomberg calls him, that's what they want to talk about, as opposed to some cheap, unsexy leveraged loan bond fund that he spent 1000 words analyzing in Buffet-like fashion last year (nice double on that one while paying a fat yield, thank you).

The fact that you were short and remained short at and after the greatest bear market bottom in recorded history has left you somewhat bitter against those who said the economy was done collapsing and urged the purchase of cheap stocks and bonds w/a great margin of safety.

Perhaps you ought to read the guy before proclaiming your ignorance by trashing a newsletter that you've never read. Go to their website, I believe they'd be happy to send you a free issue or two.
 
Hussman on bloomberg
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-hussman-market-overvalued-2010-5

I hope he becomes a regular there. Says breath and leadership reversal historically indicates a -7% return for stocks in the near-term and -20% for 12 months later

I also remember from his own research that secular bear markets tends to be bigger declines than secular bulls during recessions. So I'd say this decline will be bigger than the 20% average. ES is going back on a 8 handle, this could translate into EUR on parity with the dollar given all the fears it would induce(although this is a two way connection where one affects the other)
 
New cycle low for the Fed's preferred inflation measure
' Year-ago core PCE inflation edged down to 1.2 percent from 1.3 percent in March.. '
 
Breakfast with Dave
"Averaging out the past four quarters, real final sales have averaged 1.3% at an annual rate, which represents the weakest post-recession recovery in demand on record – it is usually running closer to a 4% annual rate at this juncture, which is alarming in view of all the bailout, monetary and fiscal stimulus in the system."

Also the weakest labor market recovery since the 30's. Some V shaped recovery
 
The trend in final sales has great implications for future corporate profits, GDP growth correlates with corporate profits growth, which is why the expensive speculative multiple put by the stock market was insane to begin with. But the market is waking up
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top