Bellucci is a 37-1 to dog against Nadal on Roland Garros, insane, there is just no way Nadal is 98% to win the match, his odds of injury got to be around 1-2%(especially after playing so much in clay season), add in the odds of him playing bad and it seems that its positive expectation to fade him here. I suppose he is going to be my new tiger woods
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The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Quote from Daal:
Bellucci is a 37-1 to dog against Nadal on Roland Garros, insane, there is just no way Nadal is 98% to win the match, his odds of injury got to be around 1-2%(especially after playing so much in clay season), add in the odds of him playing bad and it seems that its positive expectation to fade him here. I suppose he is going to be my new tiger woods
Remember to bet small though. I just lost some money betting 20-1 against Vitali Klitschko on the same principle. You can get a lot of losers before the long shot comes in and you make 20-40 times your money.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a3BEeJ9UMYO0
As I said before the debate is whether extended period stays on for the entire 2010 period, not if the fed hikes rates(which they wont)
Evans is a 2011 voter, looks like the front end will be a good trade for next year too, its only a matter of waiting for a nice sell-off to get into 2011 ZQ contracts
As I said before the debate is whether extended period stays on for the entire 2010 period, not if the fed hikes rates(which they wont)
Evans is a 2011 voter, looks like the front end will be a good trade for next year too, its only a matter of waiting for a nice sell-off to get into 2011 ZQ contracts
Matter of fact the real discussion will be when the Fed throws the towel and starts QE round 2. Given the persistent deflationary forces and M2 in negative territory(and lately declining inflation expectations) the Fed needs to purchase assets in order to make up for the lack of lending(contrary to conventional wisdom, the Fed can control the money supply even with a zombie banking system) and given that MBS are quite tricky and illiquid, I would argue they need to buy USTs, its makes the exit easier. But it will probably be a combo of GSE MBS and USTs
Quote from Daal:
Matter of fact the real discussion will be when the Fed throws the towel and starts QE round 2. Given the persistent deflationary forces and M2 in negative territory(and lately declining inflation expectations) the Fed needs to purchase assets in order to make up for the lack of lending(contrary to conventional wisdom, the Fed can control the money supply even with a zombie banking system) and given that MBS are quite tricky and illiquid, I would argue they need to buy USTs, its makes the exit easier. But it will probably be a combo of GSE MBS and USTs
Marc Faber has always viewed the S&P reaching the 900 levels as the line in the sand for the FED to step in massively once more.
We are at 1100 today, so if you believe there to be some accuracy in Fabers predictions and if you are of the opinion central banks can indeed prop up risk assets to some extend for those with a longer time horizon the time to find opportunity is not as far away as the bears would like you to believe I would think.
Interesting article
http://dmarron.com/2010/05/27/consumer-spending-is-not-70-of-the-economy/
http://dmarron.com/2010/05/27/consumer-spending-is-not-70-of-the-economy/
What is the foundation to the idea the canadian home prices are in a bubble?
It doesnt seem that out of line compared to the US
http://worthwhile.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451688169e2010536acf84d970c-pi
Its important to remember that countries exposed to commodities are quite likely to have better performing housing markets. In fact even if it goes above their historical averages of prices to income that is still okay if the country has good population growth and is a commodity exporter
It doesnt seem that out of line compared to the US
http://worthwhile.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451688169e2010536acf84d970c-pi
Its important to remember that countries exposed to commodities are quite likely to have better performing housing markets. In fact even if it goes above their historical averages of prices to income that is still okay if the country has good population growth and is a commodity exporter
Another view on Canadian housing. Plenty of familiar (to Americans) stuff here ... high levels of debt, high % of disposable income going towards housing, GSEs expanding their balance sheets at high rates (Canada's own Fannie Mae has increased its balance sheet from $80B to $400B over the last 5 years), house prices up 40% over the last year even as incomes fell.
http://business.financialpost.com/2010/05/20/is-canadas-housing-bubble-about-to-burst/
Other good stuff ...
Long interview w/Felix Zulauf. He's bullish on gold (he's always been a gold bull), which is not that interesting. What is interesting is the clear way he lays out the case for deflation and low rates at the short end for several years to come. He thinks that at some point down the road, the deflation pressures will become so great that the Central Banks throw up their hands and REALLY start to expand their balance sheets. At that point, the whole currency system collapses very quickly and we start anew.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwo...Felix_Zulauf_files/Felix Zulauf 5:28:2010.mp3
This one has really been making the rounds. Hugh Hendry, along w/an FT reporter and Jeff Sachs. Hendry basically loses it w/Sachs. I can't put into words the disdain I have for guys like Sachs - imagine everything bad about the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, and head-in-the-sky academia rolled into one, and you've got Jeff Sachs. What a glib POS.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuysYXlJ43I&feature=player_embedded
http://business.financialpost.com/2010/05/20/is-canadas-housing-bubble-about-to-burst/
Other good stuff ...
Long interview w/Felix Zulauf. He's bullish on gold (he's always been a gold bull), which is not that interesting. What is interesting is the clear way he lays out the case for deflation and low rates at the short end for several years to come. He thinks that at some point down the road, the deflation pressures will become so great that the Central Banks throw up their hands and REALLY start to expand their balance sheets. At that point, the whole currency system collapses very quickly and we start anew.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwo...Felix_Zulauf_files/Felix Zulauf 5:28:2010.mp3
This one has really been making the rounds. Hugh Hendry, along w/an FT reporter and Jeff Sachs. Hendry basically loses it w/Sachs. I can't put into words the disdain I have for guys like Sachs - imagine everything bad about the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, and head-in-the-sky academia rolled into one, and you've got Jeff Sachs. What a glib POS.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuysYXlJ43I&feature=player_embedded
I reviewed some Gluskin Sheff reports on canandian housing and it does appear to exist a bubble. This wont affect the canandian banks though as most of the mortgages in the last years has been guaranteed by the government, but it will affect their budget deficits, central bank rates and possibly the CAD
Read Drobny's book over the weekend. I'd recommend it, but it was just a tad disappointing. The focus is more on risk management, asset allocation, staying in liquid instruments and stuff. Very important if you're running a shitload of money, and already insanely rich, but a bit tedious for the rest of us. As much as we've heard from Hendry over the past couple of years, I still found his interview to be outstanding (its pretty clear which guy he is) - not because he's pounding the table about deflation (which he doesn't), but just as a reminder to never lose focus about what the crowd is doing (gold bulls beware).
There were a few other great interviews as well. Leitner is great as always. I don't know who the other folks were. The Bond Trader seemed like a bit of a douchebag. I was thinking it was Bill Gross, but I'm now pretty sure its not.
There were a few other great interviews as well. Leitner is great as always. I don't know who the other folks were. The Bond Trader seemed like a bit of a douchebag. I was thinking it was Bill Gross, but I'm now pretty sure its not.