The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Quote from Martinghoul:

Yes, this was known when the package was put together. However, various national spokespeople have been coming in, one by one, suggesting that they're confident their parliaments will approve. Today it's the Dutch finance minister. Ministers in France, Ireland, Italy and Spain have already said they expect full parliamentary approval. Obviously, Germany is going to be the big question mark, what with the threats of Constitutional Court and all.

If they said anything else they would be fired. I'd be shocked if this doesnt get voted down in some countries
 
PPD halted early Thursday 15 April

Waiting to see if there is any news of significance

Quote from Daal:


As far as stock picking is concerned I rather stick with the strategy of waiting for total nobrainers, rather than doing deep investigative work for weeks. PPD looks like that in the short side(ponzi) and in the long side GGP, but the statistics says I'm likely to be wrong
 
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PrePaid-Legal-Services-prnews-806636093.html?x=0&.v=1

Pre-Paid Legal Services Announces Update on Inquiry

ADA, Okla., April 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc. (NYSE:PPD - News) announced that, as a part of an ongoing inquiry by the Division of Enforcement of the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), we received an additional subpoena from the SEC on April 13, 2010. The subpoena requests us to provide documents relating to certain membership information, member complaints about provider law firms, our efforts to achieve compliance with all payment card industry requirements, the resignation of Harland C. Stonecipher as Chief Executive Officer and President and the resignation of Tom Smith as a director.

The subpoena is part of an ongoing inquiry by the SEC. The SEC has stated that the inquiry is non-public and should not be construed as an indication by the SEC or its staff that any violation of law has occurred, nor should it be considered a reflection upon any person, entity or security.

We will continue to cooperate with the staff of the SEC and seek a resolution of this matter. We are not able to predict the outcome of this inquiry.
 
And the greeks picked up the phone
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/16/business/global/16escudo.html?ref=business

In a statement, Dominique Strauss Kahn, the managing director of the I.M.F., said that he would send a team of experts to Athens on Monday to “begin discussions” with Greek officials “on policies that could provide the basis for Fund financial assistance, under a multi-year program, in the case that the authorities decide to ask for such assistance.”

Lets see what kind of austerity he will ask for
 
If the EU approval of the authority to bailout Greece takes too long, this could lead to problems like runs on Greek banks
http://www.cumber.com/commentary.aspx?file=041210.asp

Or downgrades by the rating agencies on greek debt, maybe to a point that they are not accepted by the ECB(I believe the ECB does not accept junk status bonds). Lets remember that the rating agencies had no problem downgrading Lehman to a point where people didnt want to do business with them anymore and they had to file(IIRC S&P sent them to A- in the friday before the glorious weekend). So I dont share the view that political pressure will prevent the agencies from sending the bonds to junk. If they become junk(and all it takes is for the value to keep going down as current market interest rates seem to be an input in the agencies models), a greek bank run could happen and they would have to do a 100% IMF bailout
 
EFF 0.22% yesterday. However I dont think there is much of a chance it will breach .25% for anything more than a day before the NYFed firesup the printing presses and restart a quasi QE in the UST bill market
 
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