The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Quote from pulsescan:


seems to me that taking the TARP or any artificial tarp like cash infusions is a death sentence for a stock at least for now.
More...

I agree that it wouldn't solve GM problems, but the stock looks like is pricing in BK concern, if they get cheap funds the stock might squeeze hard
dodd said there is no republican support for a bailout vote this could mean only tarp is avaliable, but I think paulson wont be so kind on the preferred terms in the autos because he will do it against his will
 
Quote from pulsescan:

im not to sure about what this would mean for shorts but i made a few observations.
1. FRE & FNM both stocks are trading like penny stocks and cant get back above $5.00 per share. they are stuck at under a buck.
2. GS has been in a downward spiral every since WB gave them the billions.
3. AIG is still stuck in the toilet and can't move.

seems to me that taking the TARP or any artificial tarp like cash infusions is a death sentence for a stock at least for now.
More...

its wasnt the tarp cash that crushed the financial stocks but the pending losses from the TARP not supporting mortgage securities pricing.
 
Quote from Cdntrader:

its wasnt the tarp cash that crushed the financial stocks but the pending losses from the TARP not supporting mortgage securities pricing.
More...

agreed, looks like the ABX wasn'to so cheap after all.
Havent put many trades lately, its hard to make sense of this market. Its 'not supposed to' go down in a straight line the way it is, adding shorts is tough because you cant help to be worried about big rallies. in the other hand bullish bets are underwater right after you put them. So ive be following the Kovner principle of not getting involved when you cant make sense of what is going on

I hold one chinese stock trading at about 50% of its cash on the bank and the company had 17 positive earnings quarters, is cashflow positive as well and capex is quite modest, they are also buying back stock. Yet the stock continues to tank
 
And yet the BDI has not only stopped dropping in a straight line but also advanced in the last 5 sessions, and in the last 2 weeks made a higher low and today a higher high. How soon will this be reflected in comm's and China?
 
Quote from rros:

And yet the BDI has not only stopped dropping in a straight line but also advanced in the last 5 sessions, and in the last 2 weeks made a higher low and today a higher high. How soon will this be reflected in comm's and China?
More...

I find the BDIndex situation pretty disturbing. FT.com reports there are some plans going on to unlock the shipping business but its weird how US authorities are not talking about this, we have a smoot hawley going on and no word on it yet.

brazil government lending program(BNDES) is lending money at a record pace to exporters after private credit collapsed. We could see shortages of comm and a run on inventories if they dont do something about this, perhaps I will start go avg in some long-term oil/gold calls if they show signs of a rebound
 
At present prices, small soybean producers in Argentina will go bust and many medium size grain pools will do so in 09'. Between lack of credit for farmers and no L/C from importers this is starting to paint like a real drama. But the supply shock that comes afterwards will be the keynote. I imagine the same situation is brewing with oil since drilling projects get cancelled left and right. Of concern, DRYS today lost 1/3 of its value on high volume. Maybe you should short Greece.
 
I guess one could short Greece. I'm not aware if they have ETF, the DRYS is down 90%+ so the market seems to have priced in lots of bad stuff. the governments also should step in to support eventually so I think the trade 'world commerce is coming to an end' could be dangerous

glad I'm still in fed futures. looks like the fed is going sub 50 and the quant easing should continue. I'm amazed how the Jul 09 fed contract traded at 97.74(implying 2.26% fed funds) on the short selling ban day. Against the trading commandments I averaged down and now I'm glad I did. it just looked so absurd to think the economy would make a come back AND that the fed would switch stance so quickly, they usually 'wait for more data'
 
The credit market is trading as if US is headed to the 1930's. Now the stock market is beggining to agree. At this point a depression(maybe a soft one) is a possibility, those who think its not are using Value at Risk to guide them.
They say 'we havent had one in 70 years, the government is on the case, its not going to happen', kind like the folks who said 'nationwide home prices couldn't go down'

I will maintain a bearish bias on my bets as insurance, maybe I'm missing the sale of the century but the contrarians who made fun of the bears are all down huge and it doesn't stop
 
In mid October, there was a 20 plus percent rally in the S&P 500 on an intraday basis - from low 800s to mid 1000s.

Assuming that extreme measures (eg. Bernanke printing $1 million cash for each American citizen) do not take place, you won't miss much by staying out of the stockmarket, and missing dead cat bounces.

The US stockmarket had a big rally in 1932, however keep in mind that

(1) this occurred after a 90% decline

and

(2) after the big rally in 1932, equities fumbled around for another 10 years, ending with another ugly patch in the late 1930s and early 1940s.

If the current mess is resolved by deflation (and time), then the bear market in stocks is nowhere near complete.

If the current mess is resolved by hyperinflation, then gold should outperform equities.

Either way, for people with a multi-month / multi-year timeframe, I can't think of a compelling reason to be long equities.


Quote from Daal:


I will maintain a bearish bias on my bets as insurance, maybe I'm missing the sale of the century but the contrarians who made fun of the bears are all down huge and it doesn't stop
More...
 
Quote from Daal:

agreed, looks like the ABX wasn'to so cheap after all.
Havent put many trades lately, its hard to make sense of this market. Its 'not supposed to' go down in a straight line the way it is, adding shorts is tough because you cant help to be worried about big rallies. in the other hand bullish bets are underwater right after you put them. So ive be following the Kovner principle of not getting involved when you cant make sense of what is going on

I hold one chinese stock trading at about 50% of its cash on the bank and the company had 17 positive earnings quarters, is cashflow positive as well and capex is quite modest, they are also buying back stock. Yet the stock continues to tank
More...

what is the latest list of BK/Bailout candidates? GM F MS JPM BAC/MER , All the Insurance co.s? ABH ETFC


There must a ton of non financials on the way to BK?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top