A lot of contagion going on... Portugal, Ireland, Spain, even Italy offered now.
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The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Quote from Martinghoul:
A lot of contagion going on... Portugal, Ireland, Spain, even Italy offered now.
Amazing. My brother who is majoring in business administration wants to go to europe and live there(will study in Spain and Italy first), can you imagine, the guy wants to leave Brazil to live in that basket case. Lets see if I can bring him back to his senses
Yep, it's all looking pretty tense here... A German politician (Schaeffler of the FDP) came out and said earlier that Greece should contemplate euro exit, if it can't ensure sufficient austerity measures are implemented. So things are, quite clearly, getting worse...
GGB May10 was offered at 99.24 earlier. This price, for a 1mo bond, implies a yield of arnd 18%. But then yields are meaningless now, given people are talking seriously about restructuring.
GGB May10 was offered at 99.24 earlier. This price, for a 1mo bond, implies a yield of arnd 18%. But then yields are meaningless now, given people are talking seriously about restructuring.
Quote from Martinghoul:
Yep, it's all looking pretty tense here... A German politician (Schaeffler of the FDP) came out and said earlier that Greece should contemplate euro exit, if it can't ensure sufficient austerity measures are implemented. So things are, quite clearly, getting worse...
GGB May10 was offered at 99.24 earlier. This price, for a 1mo bond, implies a yield of arnd 18%. But then yields are meaningless now, given people are talking seriously about restructuring.
Call me crazy, but isnt that a huge bargain. I just dont see the Greek government admiting that they were wrong and reestructuring now, not after all public active voluntary commitments that the greek leaders made(I believe Robert Cialdini has done some work in this psychology principle, people dont like to lose face). I bet they will ask for some wires from the IMF before they throw the towel. You dont think parking your money in these maturing greek bills is a good idea here?It reminds me of bill gross buying FNM and FRE debt before the bailout, its more tricky in this case but I cant see a bankruptcy without at least a loan or 2
Quote from Daal:
Call me crazy, but isnt that a huge bargain. I just dont see the Greek government admiting that they were wrong and reestructuring now, not after all public active voluntary commitments that the greek leaders made(I believe Robert Cialdini has done some work in this psychology principle, people dont like to lose face). I bet they will ask for some wires from the IMF before they throw the towel. You dont think parking your money in these maturing greek bills is a good idea here?It reminds me of bill gross buying FNM and FRE debt before the bailout, its more tricky in this case but I cant see a bankruptcy without at least a loan or 2
If you feel like there will come a (temporary) reversal in the (southern) Europe debt crisis you might want to look at the following stock.
Morgan Stanley: 39% of Fortis' tangible book value is exposed in Greece, 25% in Portugal, and 69% in Italy.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/who-...to-greece-portugal-and-italy-10#ixzz0lqW483CV
It's not a bargain... I wouldn't touch that sh1t with a 10ft pole. I know you're not a fan of risk/reward, but this one is a real good example. In a month's time, you can either make 0.76 of a point or lose 40 points. Would you take those odds?
Reason, btw, I say 40 pts is because recovery locks (basically, bets on the recovery rate) have now started trading in Greece. Mkt was 53/63 this morning.
Reason, btw, I say 40 pts is because recovery locks (basically, bets on the recovery rate) have now started trading in Greece. Mkt was 53/63 this morning.
Quote from Martinghoul:
It's not a bargain... I wouldn't touch that sh1t with a 10ft pole. I know you're not a fan of risk/reward, but this one is a real good example. In a month's time, you can either make 0.76 of a point or lose 40 points. Would you take those odds?
Reason, btw, I say 40 pts is because recovery locks (basically, bets on the recovery rate) have now started trading in Greece. Mkt was 53/63 this morning.
These odds I might not take, but make it something like 1-20 and I might be down for it