The Chronicles of Rennick
- Thread starter William Rennick
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It looks like we got a little late session options ex "stretch". The Market opened with the Dow up around 30, the "Ball" was neutral all day, which means don't trade. The trading range was very tight and I doubt if I would have hit my upside target even if I would have stayed until the close. Tight range, weekend, and an option expiration is very tough psychologically to enter a trade.
Glad I stayed out, as the risk/reward bit the proverbial "big one".
In summary, even though the Averages ran a little more than expected at the close the FLAT call was a good one. Have a great weekend all.
Rennick out
Glad I stayed out, as the risk/reward bit the proverbial "big one".
In summary, even though the Averages ran a little more than expected at the close the FLAT call was a good one. Have a great weekend all.
Rennick out
I looked into the crystal ball this morning, because they have a free Monday policy. Well, here is my problem:
The signal comes out at 9:35 and it stated the Dow was at -15 and predicted weak morning. Now people trading the YM know that there is a 3 mins timeperiod for the Dow what I call adjustment time, when the DJX catches up to the futures.
Thus the Dow was never really at -15, but opened down -30. True it looks like the Dow is moving, but at the same time the futures were going nowhere, thus there was no opportunity to take advantage of that move by using futures. At the time of the prediction the YM was at 11370 and right now it is pretty much at the same level after 2 hours, so I would call it a flat.
But if you go by what they say on the website, you would think that he caught a 15-20 points drop (Dow at -34), which isn't true.
Just an observation... Maybe they should post the YM instead of the Dow at the time of the prediction...
The signal comes out at 9:35 and it stated the Dow was at -15 and predicted weak morning. Now people trading the YM know that there is a 3 mins timeperiod for the Dow what I call adjustment time, when the DJX catches up to the futures.
Thus the Dow was never really at -15, but opened down -30. True it looks like the Dow is moving, but at the same time the futures were going nowhere, thus there was no opportunity to take advantage of that move by using futures. At the time of the prediction the YM was at 11370 and right now it is pretty much at the same level after 2 hours, so I would call it a flat.
But if you go by what they say on the website, you would think that he caught a 15-20 points drop (Dow at -34), which isn't true.
Just an observation... Maybe they should post the YM instead of the Dow at the time of the prediction...
If you follow the calls long enough you would see that the number is always of where the Dow is at the time he's making the Update. If you consider that it takes about 5 min. to upload it to the website you would have your answer. I've seen that very thing you are talking about go the other way. I was watching the opening, the dow opened down 13 and within 4 minutes was down 30. If you look at the time of the time stamp, when the site was updated it was 9:34.
I bought puts as fast as I could based on the call, which had the Dow -29, and the Nas -15 when my order was filled. As I write this with the dow -55, and nas-22 I'm not far from hitting my automatic target to sell.
The call of the "Ball" at 9:35 was for WEAK morning action which had the Averages ending the AM session at lows of the day.
This was another good call, you can try to spin it your way pekalo but the chart doesnt lie.
Rennick
For starters, my middle name is Objectivity. I tell how it is, like it or not.
The YM right now is exactly at 11370, which is the SAME level where it was at 9:35. That is FLAT in my book, and the charts don't lie.
It went up 10 points , it went down 20 points in the last 3 hours but it finished FLAT. You could have made money on the long side just as well as on the short one.
Here you go:
I guess it depends upon your definition of morning.
Most would consider 12:00 the end of the morning, at which time, the YM was at 11347, which was down 25 pts from 9:35.
Most would consider 12:00 the end of the morning, at which time, the YM was at 11347, which was down 25 pts from 9:35.
LOL. Easy tiger(s)!
The morning call only has about a 65% win rate. The closing trend call has about 75% IIRC.
There's definitely room for improvement technology-wise, especially as far as timeliness of delivery is concerned.
You might want to cast your eye over the recommended approaches for trading the calls and what instruments might be most applicable. That should shed some light on the likely efficacy of the system.
If you look at the call at face value e.g. "WEAK" and then look at YM for example without understanding the context and applicable timeframes you may end up with some misleading conclusions.
2 cents.
The morning call only has about a 65% win rate. The closing trend call has about 75% IIRC.
There's definitely room for improvement technology-wise, especially as far as timeliness of delivery is concerned.
You might want to cast your eye over the recommended approaches for trading the calls and what instruments might be most applicable. That should shed some light on the likely efficacy of the system.
If you look at the call at face value e.g. "WEAK" and then look at YM for example without understanding the context and applicable timeframes you may end up with some misleading conclusions.
2 cents.
Quote from Pekelo:
For starters, my middle name is Objectivity. I tell how it is, like it or not.
The YM right now is exactly at 11370, which is the SAME level where it was at 9:35. That is FLAT in my book, and the charts don't lie.
It went up 10 points , it went down 20 points in the last 3 hours but it finished FLAT. You could have made money on the long side just as well as on the short one.
The morning session ends at 12pm which had the Averages at the lows of the day. You just whipped out your chart at 1 pm and are using current numbers which are a full 1 hour after the morning session ended to spin it your way. I follow all of his calls, and I'm a no bullshit kind of a guy. If anything he always goes out of his way to be honest, that's why he posts every call he makes out in the open for all to review. I appreciate your input, but it sure seems like your only here to flame. Instead of attacking on a day when the call is correct, save your rotten tomatoes for a day when the "Ball" scores a miss. Enough of this, the Amazing Rennick's public awaits, I need to find a telephone booth to change in.
Rennick
I give credit when credit is due. I actually find the signals pretty good ones, that doesn't mean my criticism isn't valid.
I wasn't aware that the period between noon and 1 pm is for lunchtime, my bad...
By the way Bill, where does it say on the website that the morning signal ends at noon and not when the next signal comes out?
P.S.: Found it, it is in the FAQ...
I wasn't aware that the period between noon and 1 pm is for lunchtime, my bad...
By the way Bill, where does it say on the website that the morning signal ends at noon and not when the next signal comes out?
P.S.: Found it, it is in the FAQ...
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