Um, well then learn the INSTRUMENT and remove all indicators. This is also TA by the way. Learning the price movements of an instrument and creating a trading plan around that.
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The best traders in ET
- Thread starter GloriaBrown
- Start date
a) I never said such, but I would not have had to use fancy charts nor any sort of indicators to have traded it, either.
b) I did not say that, either. If you draw such conclusions then I understand why you need charts to aid your pursuit.
c) you make up stories, imaginations instead of sticking to facts.
YOU STILL HAVE NOT ADDRESSED MY QUESTION WHY ANYONE WOULD USE TA IF THE MOST TALENTED TRADERS, BANKS, AND TRADING HOUSES DONT ;-)
b) I did not say that, either. If you draw such conclusions then I understand why you need charts to aid your pursuit.
c) you make up stories, imaginations instead of sticking to facts.
YOU STILL HAVE NOT ADDRESSED MY QUESTION WHY ANYONE WOULD USE TA IF THE MOST TALENTED TRADERS, BANKS, AND TRADING HOUSES DONT ;-)
Quote from sheda:
So after your decades of market experience you do not see a single thing on that chart that could have been acted upon as it was developing, understood.
So after your decades of market experience you do not have a single tool, method or perception to recognize tight ranging and whipsawing markets as they are present or developing, understood.
Clearly the words of a man who has never traded. Going long, going short, are both behaviors, which are based on thinking you know what is going to happen, along with having adequate measures in place to address risk and minimize loss. The anti ta brigades main issue is they are Scared of uncertainty and they are Scared to be wrong.
Then just focus on the secret sauce. I agree with you by the way. I don't use indicators at all but I know the instrument I trade very well and have crafted a structured system (100% objective) around it. The secret is in the instrument and its tendencies. The more liquid a mkt, the more those tendencies can be exploited via TA. Thin stocks and the like are much more prone to random occurrences and, for what I do, this is no bueno.
Quote from nitro:
Well, I believe in indicators, as to me they are just signal processing tools applied to financial data. The "secret sauce" is not the indicator, it is the instrument to which it is applied. The whole thing of price action I believe can also work, but only for the most gifted of traders. Imo it cannot be modelled on a computer today, but I have been wrong before.
We are likely dealing with a bunch of bored housewives here and or stealth VENDORS who have a vested interest in spreading TA. Oh, well--- I tried to help.
ha, of course I only believe in ONE way, in the way that has at least been EMPIRICALLY, WITH HARD EVIDENCE, shown to have worked for some, which cannot be said of Technical Analysis. LOL, and you are ABSOLUTELY right, I do not need any artistic skills for my profession, my math and quant skills are fully sufficient to have gotten me where I am today.
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:
Your kind ALWAYS believes there is only ONE way to do things. No wonder you lack the creative thinking ability to forge out a winning system. Don't worry, you have plenty of company.
Quote from CalVolibrator:
<b>
YOU STILL HAVE NOT ADDRESSED MY QUESTION WHY ANYONE WOULD USE TA IF THE MOST TALENTED TRADERS, BANKS, AND TRADING HOUSES DONT ;-) [/B]
Because they need pictures, have nothing else, and their brains are far from scientific.
Not to mention, several of them write like they are reciting trading books that I have reviewed--- like a religious fanatic on the the street corner with a bible.
I am nearly convinced this is the get rich quick crowd with nowhere left to turn so they turn to TA and are easily fooled.
What else could be the reason?
OK, I see your point and agree full heartedly IF you can show you apply techniques that quantify the probability of continued price behavior so that you ought to profit by applying your TA techniques. TA by definition is backward looking and ONLY takes into account past prices, it does not take into account any sort of expectations.
You are basically saying so far that: Hey, I saw something in the past worked, I have NO CLUE whether it may work tomorrow or not, but hey, I will do it anyway instead of finding ways to quantify the predictive power. And yes, it may give some enough confidence to trade in such ways, but I hold myself to higher standards and it has saved my life many times.
You are basically saying so far that: Hey, I saw something in the past worked, I have NO CLUE whether it may work tomorrow or not, but hey, I will do it anyway instead of finding ways to quantify the predictive power. And yes, it may give some enough confidence to trade in such ways, but I hold myself to higher standards and it has saved my life many times.
Quote from nitro:
Here is my research:
Absolutely there are instruments to which TA can work and it is incredible how locked in a particular indicator can be to that instrument, even for weeks or months.
The problem is FINDING those instruments. The system is not the TA, it is the instrument itself.
When someone posted that chart that showed some sort of a MA that worked when I think OTVI broke down through it, I would not take that lightly. Bring that chart up in your own software, write a little program that tests for the last month say if taking breakdowns or breaouts would show a profit. If it does, TRADE IT and be ready to stop trading it if it fails. That in itself requires research. When does something stop working? It takes experience.
That is the secret of TA. It is the instrument, not so much the indicator.
ha, HMM is an excellent example of a model that takes probabilities of futures states (transition probabilities) into account. On the contrary, most all TA is purely backward looking and makes no useful inferences about future states. That is at least how I delineate TA (a.k.a. hocus pocus) from quantifiable and hopefully smarter ways in trading.
Quote from nitro:
Well, I believe in indicators, as to me they are just signal processing tools applied to financial data. The "secret sauce" is not the indicator, it is the instrument to which it is applied. The whole thing of price action I believe can also work, but only for the most gifted of traders - the Picasso and Leonardo of trading. If you think you have that kind of talent, be my guest and trade using price action. Imo it cannot be modelled on a computer today, but I have been wrong before. Hidden Markov Models are probably as close as we are today to modelling this sort of trading, but imo it is very crude.
well congratulations, you were deceived, you are in fact not a TA evangelist nor disciple. You in fact do not use any TA at all. I am glad we settled that.
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:
Then just focus on the secret sauce. I agree with you by the way. I don't use indicators at all but I know the instrument I trade very well and have crafted a structured system (100% objective) around it. The secret is in the instrument and its tendencies. The more liquid a mkt, the more those tendencies can be exploited via TA. Thin stocks and the like are much more prone to random occurrences and, for what I do, this is no bueno.