The best traders in ET

[R. Raskolnikov]

My system uses PAST PRICE. What would you call it then?

Definition of 'Technical Analysis'
A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technicalanalysis.asp

Quote from CalVolibrator:

well congratulations, you were deceived, you are in fact not a TA evangelist nor disciple. You in fact do not use any TA at all. I am glad we settled that.

 

[nitro]

Quote from CalVolibrator:

OK, I see your point and agree full heartedly IF you can show you apply techniques that quantify the probability of continued price behavior so that you ought to profit by applying your TA techniques. TA by definition is backward looking and ONLY takes into account past prices, it does not take into account any sort of expectations.

You are basically saying so far that: Hey, I saw something in the past worked, I have NO CLUE whether it may work tomorrow or not, but hey, I will do it anyway instead of finding ways to quantify the predictive power. And yes, it may give some enough confidence to trade in such ways, but I hold myself to higher standards and it has saved my life many times.

Well ok, so how do YOU trade? What instruments? What methods?

 

[galvinlee888]

Quote from marketsurfer:

We are likely dealing with a bunch of bored housewives here and or stealth VENDORS who have a vested interest in spreading TA. Oh, well--- I tried to help.

Housewives.. May be not.

Vendors - YES!!! Also, don't forget who own this site?

TA.. Make my day.

 

[sheda]

Quote from CalVolibrator:
a) I never said such but I would not have had to use fancy charts nor any sort of indicators to have traded it, either.

So you could have traded that stock using the chart alone? There is nothing fancy about a chart with a moving average on it, the question I put forth was not is this chart the only thing you could have used to trade with, the question was are you admitting here that there was no way you could have made money, more money than you lost, with the above chart?

b) I did not say that, either.

You could have lost a fortune if instead the stock had whipsawed throughout the day are not the words of a person with the tools and control over their trading to have avoided such a situation.

If you draw such conclusions then I understand why you need charts to aid your pursuit.

I need charts because I trade with charts, the simplest information of the market. You need multimillion pound information systems and quants to make a single decision.

c) you make up stories, imaginations instead of sticking to facts.

Ok bud, taking a position on market direction is not a behavior one takes when they believe they know what is going to happen next, im making it up.

YOU STILL HAVE NOT ADDRESSED MY QUESTION WHY ANYONE WOULD USE TA IF THE MOST TALENTED TRADERS, BANKS, AND TRADING HOUSES DONT ;-)

Another guy who has been a robotic cog in the institutional wheel for his entire career and does not know the reality of the market beyond his own desk.

Quote from marketsurfer:
Because they need pictures, have nothing else, and their brains are far from scientific.

Not to mention, several of them write like they are reciting trading books that I have reviewed--- like a religious fanatic on the the street corner with a bible.

I am nearly convinced this is the get rich quick crowd with nowhere left to turn so they turn to TA and are easily fooled.

What else could be the reason?

The same reason you are not running the systems and edges used by banks and top trading houses, you can not afford it and you have not got access to it. The rest of us make do with what we have, you fantasize about being something you are not and lose anyway, its funny watching you get more desperate by the day.

I have already said the anti ta crowd are scared to be wrong, we all know what needs to happen to the ego in the process of learning to trade if we are going to make it, now, take a look at the ego displayed, the arrogance, the self righteousness, of every anti TA guy on this site lately...explains a lot.

 

[CalVolibrator]

I trade volatility on indexes, foreign exchange, and spot currencies. Parts of the toolset I peruse to trade spot fx are Kalman filters, particle filters, micro market dynamics, order book dynamics. I would hardly classify any of those as TA in the traditional sense of the definition. Again I strongly reject some posters' insistence that all analysis of prices automatically means that one is engaged in TA.

I think the cleanest delineation is TA (purely backward looking and basing the future purely on a continuation of the current state) whereas other non TA techniques make inferences about probabilistic outcomes, governed by distributional assumptions, expected changes in fundamentals...you can see the prevailing theme here is the application of statistical probabilities, which none of the standard TA tools peruses.

Quote from nitro:

Well ok, so how do YOU trade? What instruments? What methods?

 

[CalVolibrator]

you are not reading nor listening after multiple attempts to reason with you. Not all techniques that peruse past price time series are classified under the classic definition of technical analysis.

Even a geometric brownian motion evolves through time and when modeling such through Monte Carlo simulations past prices may have an impact on a derivative security, such as one which is path dependent, that does not mean any TA is applied.

I have no interest to further respond to your posts.

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

My system uses PAST PRICE. What would you call it then?

Definition of 'Technical Analysis'
A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technicalanalysis.asp

 

[nitro]

Quote from sheda:
...I have already said the anti ta crowd are scared to be wrong, we all know what needs to happen to the ego in the process of learning to trade if we are going to make it, now, take a look at the ego displayed, the arrogance, the self righteousness, of every anti TA guy on this site lately...explains a lot. [/B]

I would not be surprised one bit to find a psychological study that the biggest predictor of success with TA/PA is to have a very mild ego, something like this. People that combine a gentle ego with a discerning eye and discipline. If I could go so far, someone like Chance from Being There, or Forrest from Forrest Gump.

Perhaps not that dramatic, but you get the idea.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

I AM, but you are not providing a convincing argument. I use PAST price, past price is included as part of TA, therefore I use TA. You are trying to tell me I do not use TA and I'm telling you you are wrong.

Why are you having such trouble with this?

Quote from CalVolibrator:

you are not reading nor listening after multiple attempts to reason with you. I have no interest to further respond to your posts.

 

[sheda]

Quote from CalVolibrator:

I trade volatility on indexes, foreign exchange, and spot currencies.

Hey surf! He trades what you claim are fake markets, he trades the market that "brings trouble" to the site, is he still going to be your friend?

 

[nitro]

Quote from CalVolibrator:

I trade volatility on indexes, foreign exchange, and spot currencies. Parts of the toolset I peruse are Kalman filters, particle filters, micro market dynamics, order book dynamics. I would hardly classify any of those as TA in the traditional sense of the definition. Again I strongly reject some posters' insistence that all analysis of prices automatically means that one is engaged in TA.

I think the cleanest delineation is TA (purely backward looking and basing the future purely on a continuation of the current state) whereas other non TA techniques make inferences about probabilistic outcomes, governed by distributional assumptions, expected changes in fundamentals...you can see the prevailing theme here is the application of statistical probabilities, which none of the standard TA tools peruses.

Well I have traded or trade all of those. A kalman filter is TA if you simply turn around the definition of an indicator. Particle Filters have no correspondence in the chart world. The others are standard techniques used by all traders, analysing the order book.

Most traders prefer to trust things they can see, so they can tell simply if something works or not by inspecting it visually. Perhaps that is the ultimate definition of TA. That is no small thing, especially if you are not trained in computer science, statistics, and mathematics.

The difference between an Exponential MA and a Kalman filter are subtle, and won't make a hill of beans of a difference when an instrument is tracking and indicator.

I cannot comment much on PFs since I have never used them.

All [non market-making] trading is buying low and selling high. The means to decide if something is high or low is predicting on some tme frame the likelyhood of persistence or anti-persistance. After many years of doing this, I, like George Elliot, am beginning to "understand the place for the first time."