The Beauty of Options - Portfolio Insurance at a Discount

[Sweet Bobby]

So you'd spend 5*$1.35 for the longs for a total of $6.75. And then you'd try to sell 3 puts 50 strikes above 30 dte further out and try to get $2.25 each or better for a total of $6.75?

What do you do if the price moves against you since you bought the longs? (E.g. the GTC order triggered overnight and you had a big move during the rest of the night and were not able to get anywhere near 2.25 in the morning?)

Lets say you get the $2.25 each for those new short puts. What price will you use for the new GTC buy order? Still $1.35 or use the same ratio (2.22) and have the gtc order for $1.00 ?

Yes, for the total price of the longs. No, I would not try to sell the shorts for $2.25. I would go out to the next farthest out expiration and try to sell the shorts at $3.00 or better.

So if my longs fill in the middle of the night and there is a big move down, that's awesome because I can now collect more premium on the shorts that I sell. If price moves up big, it's not ideal, but I will still sell $3 puts in the morning. Once I sell the $3 shorts, I will put in a GTC order to buy puts 50 points below in the same expiration for $1.35.

 

[Sweet Bobby]

Thanks, a few more questions

So, at one hand, you have this structure on as a big lottery ticket in case of a crash. On the other, you do some income trades on top of the structure, which would decay the power of that lottery ticket. How do you decide how much income trades to have on, so to still have the hedge work and have the lottery ticket power in case of a crash?

Lets say a market crashes. When would you take the structure off for a profit instead of waiting for an even bigger crash (or losing the paper profit due to a bounce) ?

I model everything on the Thinkorswim analyze tab. The goal of my strategy is to make money in any market condition. I never want to lose money on a crash. So, I just model all the combined positions out and make sure that my t0 line is positive if the market goes up, and that I still collect a good profit if the market crashes. It's not an exact science. I just don't want to lose money on the crash. So, I will sell enough puts to generate income but not have an overall portfolio loss during a correction.

 

[Sweet Bobby]

Here's another income trade that I put on yesterday. It is Ron Bertino's Space Trip Trade (STT). This is the bullish version. This gives me a little positive theta and raises my t0 line a bit. Looks pretty scary until you consider the position in context with the entire portfolio. See below.

Even with two of these STT positions on, looks like the portfolio will still generate $56k in the event of a 20% correction. Now, if I'm bullish on the market, I can add a few more income trades. Either way, I'm going to hedge my bets a little bit. Right now, I think another correction is on the way, so I set up the portfolio to make "the big money" on a down move. If and when I get bullish, I just switch things around and make sure the big money is on the upside, while breaking even or up a little money on the downside. Hope this helps!

 

[shh]

View attachment 231809

Here's another income trade that I put on yesterday. It is Ron Bertino's Space Trip Trade (STT). This is the bullish version. This gives me a little positive theta and raises my t0 line a bit. Looks pretty scary until you consider the position in context with the entire portfolio. See below.

View attachment 231810

Even with two of these STT positions on, looks like the portfolio will still generate $56k in the event of a 20% correction. Now, if I'm bullish on the market, I can add a few more income trades. Either way, I'm going to hedge my bets a little bit. Right now, I think another correction is on the way, so I set up the portfolio to make "the big money" on a down move. If and when I get bullish, I just switch things around and make sure the big money is on the upside, while breaking even or up a little money on the downside. Hope this helps!

One beautiful thing about what you are doing is that the left tail is capped on the income trade, but can theoretically gain infinite on the put ratio in case of a severe market crash.
As a separate note, the income trade might lose more than its t0 line shows, since IV will rise, but this rise in IV is probably completely offset by IV gains of the put ratio. Good job man

 

[Sweet Bobby]

One beautiful thing about what you are doing is that the left tail is capped on the income trade, but can theoretically gain infinite on the put ratio in case of a severe market crash.
As a separate note, the income trade might lose more than its t0 line shows, since IV will rise, but this rise in IV is probably completely offset by IV gains of the put ratio. Good job man

Thank you, SHH. It appears to be a good overall strategy. Plus, I'm able to scalp a few micro futures here and there to adjust my deltas of the overall portfolio.

 

[destriero]

lol you fvcks are gullible. He's carrying $20 theta on his "income" (sic) trade and now ($350) on his bear backspread/diagonal? Right, the dude has no money but he's taking $350 per day in gamma loan.

He pulled the same scam in his other thread. Posting a tiny production account that was bullish and then showed bear deltas in 10x the position two days later in him sim/paper money TDA account. The legit bull trades disappeared and then reappeared when the mkt recovered.

100% the STT BS (-350 theta) is SIM. I don't doubt the "income" trade (+20 theta) is real.

Blocking shh.

 

[destriero]

View attachment 231809

Here's another income trade that I put on yesterday. It is Ron Bertino's Space Trip Trade (STT). This is the bullish version. This gives me a little positive theta and raises my t0 line a bit. Looks pretty scary until you consider the position in context with the entire portfolio. See below.

View attachment 231810

Even with two of these STT positions on, looks like the portfolio will still generate $56k in the event of a 20% correction. Now, if I'm bullish on the market, I can add a few more income trades. Either way, I'm going to hedge my bets a little bit. Right now, I think another correction is on the way, so I set up the portfolio to make "the big money" on a down move. If and when I get bullish, I just switch things around and make sure the big money is on the upside, while breaking even or up a little money on the downside. Hope this helps!

Top pic... legit production account with tiny position.

Pic with "STT" position... TDA PAPER MONEY account with the top/right cut off which would show the pale orange simulated account bar as below:



Interesting that he goes to great lengths to disguise the larger account (simulated).

 

[xasmx]

Thank you, SHH. It appears to be a good overall strategy. Plus, I'm able to scalp a few micro futures here and there to adjust my deltas of the overall portfolio.

Thanks for answering the questions. Yep, the strategy sounds pretty close to what Ron advocates. They have a factory type strategy for building a hedge, too, with some differences as to what you are detailing.

 

[ironchef]

@destriero, I am not smart enough to understand what you wrote.

This I understand:

If @Sweet Bobby sells a put and then immediately executes a "hedge" using his ratio spread, it is just some combination spreads and I can't see how it could generate a guaranteed profit. It is similar to buying a stock, immediately executes a zero cost collar and expects to generate a profit.

His put selling is selective, the puts were sold only under certain conditions (according to @Sweet Bobby). The ratio spreads were also selective, they were executed only under certain conditions. There is no profit if both are done blindly and together. Until we know the selectivity, we really cannot say if his method has any merits.

This is not unlike your situation:

You make a living trading flies, but I lost my shirt trading flies. I can't say you fake it because I can't duplicate. But I make a living buying and selling stand alone calls and puts. You can't say I fake it because generally buying and selling calls/puts won't net a profit.

So @Sweet Bobby makes a good living selling puts and catching an occasional black swan. He disclosed his approach, it is testable. Whether it works or not I appreciate him sharing.

Best to you.

 

[Sweet Bobby]

@destriero, I am not smart enough to understand what you wrote.

This I understand:

If @Sweet Bobby sells a put and then immediately executes a "hedge" using his ratio spread, it is just some combination spreads and I can't see how it could generate a guaranteed profit. It is similar to buying a stock, immediately executes a zero cost collar and expects to generate a profit.

His put selling is selective, the puts were sold only under certain conditions (according to @Sweet Bobby). The ratio spreads were also selective, they were executed only under certain conditions. There is no profit if both are done blindly and together. Until we know the selectivity, we really cannot say if his method has any merits.

This is not unlike your situation:

You make a living trading flies, but I lost my shirt trading flies. I can't say you fake it because I can't duplicate. But I make a living buying and selling stand alone calls and puts. You can't say I fake it because generally buying and selling calls/puts won't net a profit.

So @Sweet Bobby makes a good living selling puts and catching an occasional black swan. He disclosed his approach, it is testable. Whether it works or not I appreciate him sharing.

Best to you.

I can’t see what Dest said. Is there any way you could copy and paste it below? Thanks!