The ACD Method

Mav did you also have a deteriorating number line going up to those new monthly highs? My 30 day started to break down just after the start of the month.
 

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DT3 said:
OK say you got long the quarterly A up (our NLs confirmed around same time) where would you have placed your stop? My monthly Feb level was actually higher then my quarterly.
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If you are long an outright, for futures, there are two possible stops I use. One, a confirmed weekly A down. Two, a -7 or greater on the 5 day NL. I had an option position on so I trade those differently depending on the structure.
 
All the indices seem to be having trouble breaking the monthly Aup and I am starting to see a little internal weakness in the market.

Starting to look like this rally is running out of steam. Are you guys seeing the same?
 
Not that I am a ACD practitioner yet, but I do feel like it is somewhat running out of steam. I've been buying some value plays over the past few weeks, but the past couple days I've sold some positions to lock in gains and free up some cash to buy with in the event we start moving down.
 
redbaron1981 said:
All the indices seem to be having trouble breaking the monthly Aup and I am starting to see a little internal weakness in the market.

Starting to look like this rally is running out of steam. Are you guys seeing the same?
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I see this exactly the opposite. And this is not even ACD related. When you see price levels holding at some level, in this case the monthly A up, the high percentage play is a breakout to the upside. The market does NOT give you this long to sell it and build your short position. It's a bear trap. The best failed monthly A ups are the ones you miss because they spike hard into them and roll over so hard that you have to chase it down. Yes, the market is taking a breather here. No, I would NOT try to short it. Take some exposure off, sure. I'm actually looking for fresh longs if and when we break.
 
Maverick74 said:
I see this exactly the opposite. And this is not even ACD related. When you see price levels holding at some level, in this case the monthly A up, the high percentage play is a breakout to the upside. The market does NOT give you this long to sell it and build your short position. It's a bear trap. The best failed monthly A ups are the ones you miss because they spike hard into them and roll over so hard that you have to chase it down. Yes, the market is taking a breather here. No, I would NOT try to short it. Take some exposure off, sure. I'm actually looking for fresh longs if and when we break.
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Thanks for that, guess we will have to see what happens over the coming days.
 
Here is a recent example with USD/CAD. It looked to be basing at the QTR A down over a 3 week period. But look at how much time it's giving you to get long. I mean when the train starting leaving the station, the conductor stopped the train and reversed it and came back to get you if you really wanted to get long. LOL. Then of course the bottom fell out.
 

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