The ACD Method

redbaron1981 · Mar 15, 2016

Thanks for clearing that up Mav great examples.

redbaron1981 · Mar 15, 2016

Maverick74 said:
Here is a recent example with USD/CAD. It looked to be basing at the QTR A down over a 3 week period. But look at how much time it's giving you to get long. I mean when the train starting leaving the station, the conductor stopped the train and reversed it and came back to get you if you really wanted to get long. LOL. Then of course the bottom fell out.

Is there anyway to identify basing rather than a trap? I would assume that this more depends on what's going on under the hood, in relation to number lines and related asset classes.

Thanks.

Maverick74 · Mar 15, 2016

redbaron1981 said:
Is there anyway to identify basing rather than a trap? I would assume that this more depends on what's going on under the hood, in relation to number lines and related asset classes.

Thanks.

I just believe in principle that the easy trade is almost ALWAYS the wrong trade. So when markets are "overbought" it's easy to sell them and vice versa when they are "oversold". Basing patterns are easy traps because you get the bus people saying "it's can't break through". LOL. But yeah the number lines help. I think the best way to decipher is look at underlying stocks. I see a lot of fresh breakouts. I think the likely outcome is more chop though as the number lines have returned to choppy mode. So any spikes up will probably get faded and any sharp drop after the Fed will probably get bought, but the stocks that broke out will keep going up and up and up...

Maverick74 · Mar 16, 2016

Here comes the steam....

Maverick74 · Mar 16, 2016

VX right at the QTR and monthly A down. This premo looks attractive here.

Maverick74 · Mar 17, 2016

Maverick74 said:
Here comes the steam....

Steam! More and more steam!

redbaron1981 · Mar 17, 2016

Maverick74 said:
Steam! More and more steam!

Think you need to throw a little more KOL on the fire :-)

hoop121 · Mar 17, 2016

CL curve flattening out and fundy traders are pulling their hair out

Maverick74 · Mar 17, 2016

hoop121 said:
CL curve flattening out and fundy traders are pulling their hair out

A lot of people are pulling their hair out. Bond shorts, Gold shorts, ES shorts, Bill Ackman. LOL. Even Natty is up 20% off the lows, although got a buy signal on the widowmaker last week. No wonder Goldman is slashing trading staff. This has been a brutal 2016 for most hedge funds and banks.

Maverick74 · Mar 17, 2016

redbaron1981 said:
Think you need to throw a little more KOL on the fire

Hell, throw the Coal shorts in there too. Why is this up 60% this year with natty close to zero? I haven't heard a peep in the debates about giving any handouts to the coal producers. I thought they had one foot in the grave.