The ACD Method

redbaron1981 said:
CNBC might have ruined that short trade now...

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Ugh......good old CNBC. Yeah this trade just got a lot messier. God that CNBC reporter is such a drama queen. "What if it gets colder in Chicago?" LOL. Chicago's avg Feb temps get into the single digits and teens. Of course it's going to get colder. LOL.
 
SteveM said:
redbaron,

I created an excel spreadsheet that runs a webquery and pulls intraday price data for about 3,000 stocks, with a 15 trading day lookback.

It then does automatic numberline scoring for each of the stocks. My spreadsheet also has has a summary tab that shows 1D pivot high-lows, profit per stock from trading ACD over prior 15 days, # of winning trades, # of losing trades, % of trades profitable, average volatility, avg daily range/avg daily opening range, whether today was an inside day, NR7 day, etc. It calculates these results both with straight opening range breakouts, and taking opening range breakouts with the % of ATR buffer (ACD method).

I then have a separate spreadsheet that I load this data into for tracking purposes.

At the current moment I am finding this to be a bit of information overload, and think it will take some time to draw meaningful insights from the data (once my tracking spreadsheet gets has a longer history of data).

For example, up until last week 75% of the stocks with weakest number lines are in oil services - no surprise there. There probably is value in going through 20 oil services stocks to determine which is the best to trade using intraday ACD but that means your time is taken away from other things that you could be researching. I think narrowing the list of 3,000 stocks down will be helpful in the future.

If anyone would like to collaborate, feel free to PM me. I'd be happy to share automated ACD tools in exchange for some collaboration/mentoring in terms of actually trading intraday, as this is where I am still struggling.
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I have sent you a PM.
 
Mav its possible for you to go over the situation in brazil with regards to the economics , be interesting and educational for the thread and myslef and on that note is they any instruments that you trade to best take advantage of the situation and how you would go about creating assymetrical risk to reward through dynamics of acd if possible. Thankyou
 
wow12 said:
Mav its possible for you to go over the situation in brazil with regards to the economics , be interesting and educational for the thread and myslef and on that note is they any instruments that you trade to best take advantage of the situation and how you would go about creating assymetrical risk to reward through dynamics of acd if possible. Thankyou
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I think there is some good value in Brazil. The currency move is not sustainable i.e the BRL is undervalued. Ten year govies are paying 16% yields which equates to 6% in real rates which is 3 times higher then our treasuries. Buying the bonds gives you a decent real return plus the tailwind of a stronger BRL I think in the coming year. Oil is hurting them obviously. There are a few major corporate scandals hitting them similar to the US in the early 2000's. I wouldn't try to pick a bottom here and I don't have ACD levels on their bonds or their currency but the second there is some strength showing, I think there is a very nice trade to be had.
 
Thankyou mav. you may have to change your name to saint mav of wallstreet :rolleyes:. Your making the game look bad mav , its meant to be cut throat.
 
GBPJPY-daily.png
LOL

Timing is everything re: short GBP/JPY

Unless you like taking heat like Rearden...


GBP/JPY went UP from ~ 181.00 (28 Sep 2015) to ~ 188.50 (Nov 19)

GBP/JPY only started its descent from 188.50 (Nov 19 2015)

Sep 23
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-1036#post-4182459

Sep 28
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-1039#post-4185028

Oct 22
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-1046#post-4197715
 
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