The ACD Method

kinggyppo said:
I hear you Mav just checking you on this, he makes a great point that higher dollar = lower commodities. Deflation is always the risk. Problem is these macro themed trades take forever to play out. I would think that China devaluing is pretty bad for emerging export based economies.
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One of his best trade ideas is being long US Equities/short emerging market equities or SPY/EEM.
 
Mav/King, strong $ is deflationary sure but why is Eurozone grappling with deflation given that the euro is about 20% weaker than it was against the commodity currency/greenback?
Thanks for R.Pal vid Mav...gains more kudos when one knows it is from January.
 
After saying to watch the bonds closely, I hope Mav is ready to pony up for motion sickness pills for everyone this morning haha! :) Just had to rib ya, have a great Friday everyone, its gonna be a wild one....
 
on a more serious ACD note, a lot of our ACD derivative data is putting out a lot of basically "neutral" or "stay away" signals this morning. Anyone else seeing this? By our models, won't be much worth trading for a day or two...worth the risk anyway.
 
Yeah if you are just referring to the energy landscape and the broader indices as well. All the action right now is in currencies. The market is in chop mode right now with wider ranges. Don't let the vol deceive you. It's easy to see the large moves and mistake them for trends. What ACD does is widen the A levels to adjust for this. The market this past week has been trading pretty normally within it's wider A levels. This is why it's so important to allow for volatility calibration in your trading style.
 
yes, was just referring specifically to energies/ grains/livestock. Thats our bread and butter. We don't trade indices and have only used currency trade as a macro view, never have traded them. Probably should
 
One thing I would argue with ACD is that, unlike what Fisher talked about originally, it DOES work on thin markets, just not intra-day. I saw on another forum posters mocking the idea of anyone actually trading dairy products. I agree, butter isn't really tradeable, but things like milk and lumber do actually work with ACD if your timeframe is days rather than minutes.

But then again, I'm a little different, and likely do not fit in with 99% on ET...which I don't see as a bad thing ;)
 
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