FYI...my vol indicators are saying this market might be ready for a nice leg up or at least some short term stability. Also WTI is starting to change behavior here.
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
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I highly recommend this video. He doesn't an excellent job explaining back in January exactly what is going on in the markets today. It's educational and is chock full of great trading ideas.
ISEE 67 today.
Watch Bonds very closely today and tomorrow. Getting close to a re-set. And also watch the FX flows for tells in equities. But you guys already knew that....
For those of you who watched the above video from Raoul Pal, his explanation of the dollar and it's effect on global markets is worth a degree in Economics. I cannot stress how important it is to understand this stuff.
Monthly A up in the ES is 1972. Session high so far a tick shy of 1969.
WTI will likely test that 50 level which is the monthly A up.
this is bs man he is a run of the mill deflationist, just cause oil is down 50% that doesn't have
any effect on the economy does it??
Oil is a raw material that get's factored one way or another into almost every product and service. When your input costs go down, your price level goes down. Low oil prices can stimulate demand to some extant but that gets offset by lower overall demand for those goods. When you have a strong dollar and all of a nation's goods are priced in dollars, raising the value of the dollar lowers the price level of all goods and services holding all else constant. The argument he was making is that a strong dollar is deflationary in nature and it explains why we have seen such a strong bid in bonds despite the forward expectations of higher rates by the FED.
I hear you Mav just checking you on this, he makes a great point that higher dollar = lower commodities. Deflation is always the risk. Problem is these macro themed trades take forever to play out. I would think that China devaluing is pretty bad for emerging export based economies.