The ACD Method

Mav, takecare and enjoy yourself, remember your on holiday so no thinking abt trading so relax and enjoy your holiday.:)
 
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Since kinggyppo is the current brass of the thread, I'd like to ask what the recommended OR's for NKD, 6E and 6J are? I know the OR can be discretionary along with almost every other aspect of ACD, but is there a suggested OR for these products?
 
Since kinggyppo is the current brass of the thread, I'd like to ask what the recommended OR's for NKD, 6E and 6J are? I know the OR can be discretionary along with almost every other aspect of ACD, but is there a suggested OR for these products?

This is an interesting question, these are futures that trade practically 24 hours a day. ACD theory is to use the domiciled/home market of the product. Nymex = New York so use the eastern time open. The opening range is a great way to get into a trade. In general terms if you are scalping you are gonna want a small OR, you may be playing for a few ticks on a large position. Fisher always trades hedged whenever I have seen him live, meaning spreads, long es/short bonds etc. Trading as long as he has he knows spreads very well. So maximize size, minimize risk. You can intuit that volatile products will bounce more and whip more than
low vol products. So for Nikkei its the evening here in US. I personally think the London open is important globally as it the center for a lot of currencies/trading. Somewhat inconvenient here in the states if you like to sleep.

To your question can't really answer in a one size fits all. It makes more sense to me to be active when vol is higher and it may be higher in the product. Es was really moving a few weeks ago. Oil is pretty interesting now but not something I like to trade. I like short time frames under 5-10 minutes for opening ranges as you can really get killed with a wide stop.
wide stop, less contracts, look to catch a swing. Euro got beat down pretty good lately its in counter trend and the moment. On a weekly chart its straight sideways. Anyone want to post their weekly A up on the euro?
 
This is an interesting question, these are futures that trade practically 24 hours a day. ACD theory is to use the domiciled/home market of the product. Nymex = New York so use the eastern time open. The opening range is a great way to get into a trade. In general terms if you are scalping you are gonna want a small OR, you may be playing for a few ticks on a large position. Fisher always trades hedged whenever I have seen him live, meaning spreads, long es/short bonds etc. Trading as long as he has he knows spreads very well. So maximize size, minimize risk. You can intuit that volatile products will bounce more and whip more than
low vol products. So for Nikkei its the evening here in US. I personally think the London open is important globally as it the center for a lot of currencies/trading. Somewhat inconvenient here in the states if you like to sleep.

To your question can't really answer in a one size fits all. It makes more sense to me to be active when vol is higher and it may be higher in the product. Es was really moving a few weeks ago. Oil is pretty interesting now but not something I like to trade. I like short time frames under 5-10 minutes for opening ranges as you can really get killed with a wide stop.
wide stop, less contracts, look to catch a swing. Euro got beat down pretty good lately its in counter trend and the moment. On a weekly chart its straight sideways. Anyone want to post their weekly A up on the euro?

Good job King.
 
Have a safe trip Mav.

WTI couldn't get past my WAUp so treating this as a failed weekly A Up and see if we get new lows as the month ends.

Close enough. They might still go for the lows but this is as good as it was going to get I guess. Spot brent actually made it to new lows which was great to end the month.

Mav thanks so much for this post. It really hit home this time:

Say a product has a +40 number line (using extreme values here) and let's say this product is way above the QTR A up. Is there a chance to enter? Well, let's dial down to the monthly levels. Well, it appears as though price is way above the monthly levels as well. Is there a chance to enter? Well, let's dial down in time to the weekly levels. Let's say we are also way above the weekly levels. Can we enter? Let's dial down to the daily levels. There we go. There is an entry on the failed A down even though price on paper looks very very extended. So what is the lesson here. The more extended a move is in time and price, ACD forces you to reduce your time and tighten your stops. Each lower time frame carries tighter stops and shorter time periods thereby reducing your risk. If you have to, you can dial down to the most granular level which is a single day to find the appropriate risk and time level.

The other beauty here is, time eventually let you in. As time moves forward, new levels are formed even if price never retraces! That's the real unicorn here. Every 3 months we get new QTR levels. Every month we get new monthly levels and all you have to do is wait a few more days and you get a chance to lean on a weekly level and if you are really impatient, wait till tomorrow to get your daily level. Time is one of the biggest hidden value variables that 99% of traders on ET ignore and to their own detriment. Remember, value exists in time, not in price!!!!!!!!!!! Very very very few people understand this. Once this gets into your head, a whole new world will open for you.

Today could be scored a -4 in WTI, Brent is most probably a -3. I will get stats on this but +/-3 days seem to have some steam left going into the next session so we may still have more of this move left.
 
My yearly A down is around $36 in WTI which is one puke away from tagging that. Rbob about to confirm on the 30 day. Heating oil already confirmed. You know what this means? USD/CAD and USD/MXN probably going to keep pushing higher.


No doubt about it if WTI hits 36 USDCAD is going to 1.4
 
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