The ACD Method

kinggyppo said:
This is an interesting question, these are futures that trade practically 24 hours a day. ACD theory is to use the domiciled/home market of the product. Nymex = New York so use the eastern time open. The opening range is a great way to get into a trade. In general terms if you are scalping you are gonna want a small OR, you may be playing for a few ticks on a large position. Fisher always trades hedged whenever I have seen him live, meaning spreads, long es/short bonds etc. Trading as long as he has he knows spreads very well. So maximize size, minimize risk. You can intuit that volatile products will bounce more and whip more than
low vol products. So for Nikkei its the evening here in US. I personally think the London open is important globally as it the center for a lot of currencies/trading. Somewhat inconvenient here in the states if you like to sleep.

To your question can't really answer in a one size fits all. It makes more sense to me to be active when vol is higher and it may be higher in the product. Es was really moving a few weeks ago. Oil is pretty interesting now but not something I like to trade. I like short time frames under 5-10 minutes for opening ranges as you can really get killed with a wide stop.
wide stop, less contracts, look to catch a swing. Euro got beat down pretty good lately its in counter trend and the moment. On a weekly chart its straight sideways. Anyone want to post their weekly A up on the euro?
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Getting comfortable in that King's chair are ya? :)
 
Most here seem to be day traders and i can see that common wisdom or better, possibly, an individuals rigorous testing prove that the opening range , intraday is statistically significant.
Frankly though, i dont see that the first day, or couple days, of a month are significant.
Granted, thats just me and my testing methods are not rigorous or well practiced, but i do wonder if i am simply putting up some 20 day volatility bands based on the opening day, or few days of the month.
Personally, i am more inclined to float the starting time , asynchronous, not clocked, as to when i draw the 20 day Aup and Adown. It is usually a major technical breakout or catalyst( such as a central bank event) that triggers Aup and Adown levels for me.
Any comment as to "what i am not seeing" in terms of standard ATR based , 20 day ,Aup and Adown levels?
Thanks.
 
A few Sunday night HomeGamers number lines of the general market. (These numbers constructed with 10 minute OR’s and 10 minute confirmations.)

Note all the broad market and sector 30 day negative number line confirmations. Also, the US Treasury Flattener FLAT could go confirmed positive tomorrow (a -2 falls off).

On a separate matter, I’ve recently been thinking at what levels I want confirmed A’s to change to neutral. (We all know what Fisher said but I want to confirm my own levels.)

So, I've been compiling look back stats on intraday, weekly, monthly and quarterly A levels and how they played out over ensuing time periods.

For instance, I've attached a portion of a 2010 to 2015 monthly A levels study and how they played out (I also took a few interesting years like 99, 02, 07, 08 etc). Not very fancy but I can say definite patterns occur over and over.

I tip my hat to Ole Master Mav (Mav Griswald in a new production of “European Vacation”? :)) who has passed on sooooo many solid gold items about A levels (for instance how often failed A’s pop right back to the other A). It’s one thing to read it but when you see it in front of you it’s very reassuring.
 

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eurusdzn said:
Most here seem to be day traders and i can see that common wisdom or better, possibly, an individuals rigorous testing prove that the opening range , intraday is statistically significant.
Frankly though, i dont see that the first day, or couple days, of a month are significant.
Granted, thats just me and my testing methods are not rigorous or well practiced, but i do wonder if i am simply putting up some 20 day volatility bands based on the opening day, or few days of the month.
Personally, i am more inclined to float the starting time , asynchronous, not clocked, as to when i draw the 20 day Aup and Adown. It is usually a major technical breakout or catalyst( such as a central bank event) that triggers Aup and Adown levels for me.
Any comment as to "what i am not seeing" in terms of standard ATR based , 20 day ,Aup and Adown levels?
Thanks.
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I think most here are swing traders. It would be interesting to take a poll. I actually think intra-day OR are the toughest and I personally use a floating for intra-day. But for swing trading the key is to use a "significant" and meaningful time period where "new" money flows come into the market. This is important for the signaling effect. The weekly OR incorporates weekend news events. The monthly and QTR OR incorporate new fund flows from mutual funds and hedge funds. That is not to say one can't have "other" significant periods. Since we all use different levels, it's really up to the user. I use my levels for different purposes. This is where we need to make the system fit into what our individual goals and objectives are and why I'm always hesitant to tell people how "I" do things as if it's universal and should work for everyone.
 
Emerging Markets (EEM) confirmed negative and US Treasury Flattener (FLAT) confirmed positive today.

The SP-500 had five Quarterly A Ups today in CTXS, MDT, DHR, TMK and MDLZ. Many of them at or flirting with 52 week highs. Only two Qtr A Downs in DD and WFM.

There were also 15 downside Sushi Rolls and only two upsiders in ADSK and VRTX (which was also a 52 week high).
 
I don't typically chime in with specific trades, but I don't recall seeing these talked about often. One trade we put on yesterday was long december wheat. A classic Fisher Trend Reversal Trade....an A-up at or above 2 or more consecutive A-down levels. wheat made the A-up and confirmed above 504, and we got in on a pullback to near the top of the opening range. We do quite a bit of work in grains here, and I don't see them mentioned much, so thought I'd try to add something.
 
....and of course, as soon as I do post a trade, it doesn't work ;) Scratched it just below the A-down today, same price I bought it at. A lot of A-ups / downs lining up the past few days at this 504 level. Just for future reference.

Also, to the earlier comment regarding # of daytraders / swing traders. For us, depends on the market. We tend to swing trade the grains and all spreads, and daytrade around those positions in the flat price. In energies we typically keep it to daytrades in products just due to some of the volatility and thin trade overnight. slippage has a whole new meaning on even a 20 lot stop market in RBOB at midnight :)
 
rt5909 said:
....and of course, as soon as I do post a trade, it doesn't work ;) Scratched it just below the A-down today, same price I bought it at. A lot of A-ups / downs lining up the past few days at this 504 level. Just for future reference.

Also, to the earlier comment regarding # of daytraders / swing traders. For us, depends on the market. We tend to swing trade the grains and all spreads, and daytrade around those positions in the flat price. In energies we typically keep it to daytrades in products just due to some of the volatility and thin trade overnight. slippage has a whole new meaning on even a 20 lot stop market in RBOB at midnight :)
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maybe you could expand on your thoughts regarding the grains in general. Personally I haven't a clue where any of this is trading but many lurkers would be interested in how you approach this part of the market. I imagine you get some good trending markets in grains.
 
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