agreed,
whatever you do, take great notes. and categorize them so you can filter back through them easily. that will prevent you from asking the same questions that have already been asked 1000x.
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
agreed,
whatever you do, take great notes. and categorize them so you can filter back through them easily. that will prevent you from asking the same questions that have already been asked 1000x.
Its in canadian, funny thing is he invested a few hundred k with a commodity trader, and invested a mill with an energy trader, and the commodity guy was up like 75% in a couple months, while the energy guy was down about 3% (but he invested at the peak of oil) I screamed at him to scrap the commodity guy who was up 75%, but he wouldnt listen, he thought this guy was some golden boy who could make those returns without excessive risk, i told him and told him and told him the guy was going to blow out and it only took a few months. Meanwhile the energy guy only lost 3% and is back to positive returns when he invested at the peak of oil, right around July last year, but he does safe stuff lots of utilities.
Its all Canadian, Id be super interested to hear your thoughts on that corporate paper, as thats not really my thing.... you mind pointing out a few?
Its all Canadian, Id be super interested to hear your thoughts on that corporate paper, as thats not really my thing.... you mind pointing out a few?
Max, does your dad know he lost 1 million large alone just in currency over the last year? Kind of shocking when you think about it. When I get some time I'll post a little bit about the corp stuff. I want to be very careful here not to recommend stuff. Usually when I do people like the King rush out and buy with both hands. 
I try to post some long term ideas here from time to time. Stuff I like that I would sock away. STPP is an ETF that is long the yield curve. It's a much better way I think to be long risk assets then holding stock outright.
DXJ is long Japanese stocks and short the Yen. Japan is going to inflate the living shit out of their economy and even if their policy fails, it will boost stocks and kill their currency.
There is an ETF that is long all the BRIC countries (Brazil, India, Russia, China). It's ugly now, but when that bottoms, that will be a great long term hold. EEB is the ticker there.
I try to post some long term ideas here from time to time. Stuff I like that I would sock away. STPP is an ETF that is long the yield curve. It's a much better way I think to be long risk assets then holding stock outright.
DXJ is long Japanese stocks and short the Yen. Japan is going to inflate the living shit out of their economy and even if their policy fails, it will boost stocks and kill their currency.
There is an ETF that is long all the BRIC countries (Brazil, India, Russia, China). It's ugly now, but when that bottoms, that will be a great long term hold. EEB is the ticker there.
Max, does your dad know he lost 1 million large alone just in currency over the last year? Kind of shocking when you think about it. When I get some time I'll post a little bit about the corp stuff. I want to be very careful here not to recommend stuff. Usually when I do people like the King rush out and buy with both hands.
Yes hes very aware of that lol, only good thing is the energy trader has him in USD.
All the things you mention still have degree of risk hes just not willing to take, i told him to put his money in the spys if he wants to be in the market, and forget about it but like i said he started at the top so he cant bring himself to do it.
I tried to tell him USD cash was not a bad position, right now, cause i think even if we go up for a couple more years we are bound to correct to this position, like i think worst case you could still buy the sandp at these prices 4-5 years from now even if the market goes up its bound to correct.
Trust me i take any advice you give with a grain of salt, and hed take any of my advice the same way hes not a dumbass so id love to hear more ideas. Tried pointing him to some solid dividend paying utilities the other day off a seeking alpha article but even that has a bit of risk with oil and gas prices right now.
Max, STPP has 1/3rd the volatility of SPY with 3 times the return. Or put a different way, for each unit of risk in terms of SPY, it earns 9 times the return of the SPY. In fact, the volatility of his own currency has been more volatile then both STPP and SPY. But I know most of the public doesn't understand this. BTW, there are some decent long/short type mutual funds out there that do a decent job navigating the few corrections we do have.
Seems what you are saying is that when you can find a trend in the difference between two highy , + correlated assets (2yr and 10yr rates in this case), that the volatility of the net of the two is much less than the volatility of each leg.
If I am close to being on target with this interpretation of your idea, are there other examples where this type of relationship exists? Or is this just fundamentally "what you get" with intermarket calander type spreads.
Yeah that is one way to look at it. But the yield curve in general is much more of a macro trade long term. The forces that drive it don't really change that fast. It's not popping up and down every time AMZN has a blowout earnings QTR or getting crushed if MSFT misses the whisper number. Of course the downside is it's a lot less sexy. It moves pretty slow and you might get frustrated when the S&P rallies 100 handles and the curve steepened 5 ticks. LOL.
Man, this place really is dead. LOL. Didn't I put enough fish in the lake?
So going forward this is my new rule. I will re-visit this thread one day a week on Sundays. I'll respond to any questions or comments and maybe add a few of my own. This will keep me two involved but not so much where I need to pay for ET therapy. LOL.
Hello Mav,
As you know, Fisher goes from an A Up bias to a neutral bias if price closes below the lower OR (reversed for an A Down).
Do you generally follow that or something different? Seems like someone on here changed to a neutral bias with a close in the OR and I can't remember if it was you?
Thanks
A few HomeGamer weekend Number Lines created with a 10 minute OR and 10 minute confirmations.
A number of 30 day confirms this week including: Midcap Index (IJH), Smallcap Index (IJR), Telecommunications Sector (IYZ), Market Vectors Oil Service (OIH), 20+ Year Bond (TLT), United States Oil (USO) and Energy Sector (XLE).
A number of 30 day confirms this week including: Midcap Index (IJH), Smallcap Index (IJR), Telecommunications Sector (IYZ), Market Vectors Oil Service (OIH), 20+ Year Bond (TLT), United States Oil (USO) and Energy Sector (XLE).
YINN starting to roll over again. You can pretty much tie any chart that is going down to China. King...you might want to get long some YANG.
good call, you must be one of those "malicious sellers" we keep hearing about. Zerohedge losing their mind today!!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...rash-history-1500-companies-halted-limit-down