The ACD Method

BTW, the ES never took out my yearly A up. Failed a half dozen times there. If we get a deep correction that 1900 level is a good target which is the yearly A down.
 

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The thing is, There is no longer any flight to safety, heres the situation my old man is in, he just sold his business, he owned a bunch of bars, hes turning 70 this year, and he doesnt want to quit working, for the last 2 years hes had his money in short term cash deposits, making 1%........ hes now working for the people he sold his bars to because he cant even retire with 5 million dollars. Hes only getting 1 percent. Something has to give, at some point people wont sink their money in for a 1-2 percent return.

He tried some commodity trader who promptly blew out his account when oil went down the tank. There is just no place left for wealthy people to park money and expect a reasonable rate of return. At some point theyve got to pull the pin and say whats the point risking my money for a measly couple percent, id rather be in cash.

Im fully in with you on investing in the spy's, whenever a friend tries to ask me how to make money in the market they think im a guru who can turn them over 100% per year, i just had this argument with a buddy last night, i told him to sink his money in the spys and forget about it cause it will beat most fund managers, but hes convinced that some scheister out there will provide him a 50% return.

I think that one thing alot of people in Canada are underestimating is the amount of damage oil is going to do...... Deutchebank rated Canadian housing as the most overvalued in the entire world, and this was before oil collapsed....... There has been a little pain in Canada with oil but nothing like what i think we could see if prices remain below 50, and all these junior companies trading at a couple bucks a share get completely whiped out. Right now theres alot of layoffs but those companies are still running an operation, wait till the rig pigs drive into work one day to see a no trespassing sign because the rig is now owned by the bank.

Love that movie Max. There already has been a pretty big breaking point. Commodities have gotten absolutely destroyed. Yields are back down to nothing. Emerging market currencies have gone to toilet paper. People buy equities these days because on avg, they are kicking out about 3% in yield which is beating all the other horses soundly. There actually are a lot of stocks that have gotten destroyed too. The thing you have to keep in mind Max is, that the large cap indices are self adjusting to a degree. Meaning every quarter it kicks the losers out and puts the new winners in. So if one does nothing but hold say the SPY, they are in fact trading that portfolio every quarter adding to winners and getting rid of losers. That is why it's so hard to beat the S&P 500. It's not a static index. Individual mutual funds have gotten smoked and so have investors. There actually has been a lot of damage out there. Look at energy stocks and transportation stocks. And quite frankly, look at some of the other indices around the world, the US is really under performing. I do agree though that volatility is seriously under priced and there should be far more risk priced into the market then there is.
 
BTW, the ES never took out my yearly A up. Failed a half dozen times there. If we get a deep correction that 1900 level is a good target which is the yearly A down.


Do you got a couple good posts i could go to to bone up on this strat, or would i have to do the whole thread?
 
The thing is, There is no longer any flight to safety, heres the situation my old man is in, he just sold his business, he owned a bunch of bars, hes turning 70 this year, and he doesnt want to quit working, for the last 2 years hes had his money in short term cash deposits, making 1%........ hes now working for the people he sold his bars to because he cant even retire with 5 million dollars. Hes only getting 1 percent. Something has to give, at some point people wont sink their money in for a 1-2 percent return.

He tried some commodity trader who promptly blew out his account when oil went down the tank. There is just no place left for wealthy people to park money and expect a reasonable rate of return. At some point theyve got to pull the pin and say whats the point risking my money for a measly couple percent, id rather be in cash.

Im fully in with you on investing in the spy's, whenever a friend tries to ask me how to make money in the market they think im a guru who can turn them over 100% per year, i just had this argument with a buddy last night, i told him to sink his money in the spys and forget about it cause it will beat most fund managers, but hes convinced that some scheister out there will provide him a 50% return.

I think that one thing alot of people in Canada are underestimating is the amount of damage oil is going to do...... Deutchebank rated Canadian housing as the most overvalued in the entire world, and this was before oil collapsed....... There has been a little pain in Canada with oil but nothing like what i think we could see if prices remain below 50, and all these junior companies trading at a couple bucks a share get completely whiped out. Right now theres alot of layoffs but those companies are still running an operation, wait till the rig pigs drive into work one day to see a no trespassing sign because the rig is now owned by the bank.

I think most seniors are in your dad's shoes minus the 5 million. LOL. And of course now your dad has to worry about your currency going to shit. Doesn't Canada have a nice Cadillac retirement program for seniors?

Truthfully Max, there are some places your dad can put his money. There is some decent high grade corp debt out there with some yield on it. My mother is in some nice 7.50% paper and has been in it for years now. I only wish I put more of her money in that. But even with your currency going to shit, 5 million is a nice nest egg. Is that in US Dollars or Canadian?
 
In the old pagination I found most of the good stuff in the first 450-500 pages. You still have to go through the rest because here and there some really useful stuff was discussed. So we're probably talking about the first 400 pages that will take time, with notes and stuff, after that it gets faster.
 
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