The ACD Method

interesting little late day rally in the WTI spreads. flat price only up .40, but the Sep/Oct is up .09 from the lows. z/z .25 off the lows. wti/brent .50 off the lows
 
One of these days when we bounce the highs on the market for the millionth time, some big player in the market is going to come to the conclusion that the music is about to stop. This is the same pattern stocks follow on a minute to minute, hour to hour, day to day, month to month basis. It really is just different time frames, the charts all look the same.

I had a pretty big week, but im pissed cause i missed the ES short this time by a point, i tried to get too cute, and put it at 2126 the day after we bounced the 2126.25 high, and we only got to 2125 in the premarket that day.

I honestly believe there is going to be a breaking point where some whale who is only slightly positive on the year decides to offload, and then all the fishies underneath will have no choice.

 
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Max E. Pad said:
One of these days when we bounce the highs on the market for the millionth time, some big player in the market is going to come to the conclusion that the music is about to stop. This is the same pattern stocks follow on a minute to minute, hour to hour, day to day, month to month basis. It really is just different time frames, the charts all look the same.

I honestly believe there is going to be a breaking point where some whale who is only slightly positive on the year decides to offload, and then all the fishies underneath will have no choice.

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Love that movie Max. There already has been a pretty big breaking point. Commodities have gotten absolutely destroyed. Yields are back down to nothing. Emerging market currencies have gone to toilet paper. People buy equities these days because on avg, they are kicking out about 3% in yield which is beating all the other horses soundly. There actually are a lot of stocks that have gotten destroyed too. The thing you have to keep in mind Max is, that the large cap indices are self adjusting to a degree. Meaning every quarter it kicks the losers out and puts the new winners in. So if one does nothing but hold say the SPY, they are in fact trading that portfolio every quarter adding to winners and getting rid of losers. That is why it's so hard to beat the S&P 500. It's not a static index. Individual mutual funds have gotten smoked and so have investors. There actually has been a lot of damage out there. Look at energy stocks and transportation stocks. And quite frankly, look at some of the other indices around the world, the US is really under performing. I do agree though that volatility is seriously under priced and there should be far more risk priced into the market then there is.
 
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