-20 on the Monthly now. -18 on the 30day. It's the 4th -3 day of the month.
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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
-20 on the Monthly now. -18 on the 30day. It's the 4th -3 day of the month.
-20 on the Monthly now. -18 on the 30day. It's the 4th -3 day of the month.
A few of the other strips I track look the same. Once the London 30 day confirmed negative near $60 WTI, all hell broke loose. That London confirm was a great tell as it came near the highs.
speaking of....so far, z/z cl is on a hard A-up, and back into yesterdays failed Aup range and flat price really not responding, with only a feeble attempt out of the OR. HO definitely lead in rotation....for us, we are keeping any energy length to HO and applicable inters for now. Bonds on a failed A-down this morning....I don't trade index products, and rarely rates, but makes a guy wonder if people have given up shorting the SP and are taking risk bets in the long end....
speaking of....so far, z/z cl is on a hard A-up, and back into yesterdays failed Aup range and flat price really not responding, with only a feeble attempt out of the OR. HO definitely lead in rotation....for us, we are keeping any energy length to HO and applicable inters for now. Bonds on a failed A-down this morning....I don't trade index products, and rarely rates, but makes a guy wonder if people have given up shorting the SP and are taking risk bets in the long end....
yeah, Z/Z had a pretty uneventful opening range this morning. it makes for tight Alevels and usually leads to less effective fades.
speaking of....so far, z/z cl is on a hard A-up, and back into yesterdays failed Aup range and flat price really not responding, with only a feeble attempt out of the OR. HO definitely lead in rotation....for us, we are keeping any energy length to HO and applicable inters for now. Bonds on a failed A-down this morning....I don't trade index products, and rarely rates, but makes a guy wonder if people have given up shorting the SP and are taking risk bets in the long end....
Bonds confirmed yesterday. The long Bond trade has been the pseudo short risk trade since 2008.
Just making sure I understand what you're saying. Is the number line score an example of a first order effect? And something like the 5-day change a second order effect?Everything I do with ACD is a derivative. In other words, I look for second and third order effects. I never look at first order effects. And yes, it's VERY valuable.
speaking of....so far, z/z cl is on a hard A-up, and back into yesterdays failed Aup range and flat price really not responding, with only a feeble attempt out of the OR. HO definitely lead in rotation....for us, we are keeping any energy length to HO and applicable inters for now. Bonds on a failed A-down this morning....I don't trade index products, and rarely rates, but makes a guy wonder if people have given up shorting the SP and are taking risk bets in the long end....
Z/Z back to unchanged. Had it had a slightly larger opening range, this would have been another failed Aup for you. Maverick taught me the importance of being familiar with the wide/narrow opening ranges and how they ultimately effect how wide/narrow the Alevels are. If your Alevels are a lot more narrow than usual, price is naturally going to be more inclined to make confirmed A's.
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also depends on your timeframe / size of OR....it WAS a failed A-up for us. Obviously not for everyone, but on that particular spread right now, we are using a 10 min OR with A levels at 8 cents. Agree on wide / narrow. We also look at width of OR vs overnight range. Flat price CL was great example of that....OR was just over 50% of total overnight range, makes it very choppy usually
also depends on your timeframe / size of OR....it WAS a failed A-up for us. Obviously not for everyone, but on that particular spread right now, we are using a 10 min OR with A levels at 8 cents. Agree on wide / narrow. We also look at width of OR vs overnight range. Flat price CL was great example of that....OR was just over 50% of total overnight range, makes it very choppy usually
gotcha, guess i was confused by your terminology of "Z/Z on a hard Aup". I thought you meant it was making an Aup for you.
I see...when I said "hard" I meant it went to a-up but so far (when I wrote it) was having a hard time sustaining. For us it confirmed the a-up, but flat price was failing to move out of OR, so we were looking for either a confirmation move in flat price or the a-up in the spreads to fail. Obviously the latter occured. We very much use ACD as a gauge, not a hard and fast rule...I think this has been discussed and utilized by folks a lot smarter than me in this forum before.