The ACD Method

So it was a big week in the markets with the ECB announcing a start to QE and the NFP adding to the probability of an early hike. I am only following FX at the moment but intend to add more as I get more practice in.

Pairs I am watching at the moment:

EURUSD confirmed an A Down at 1.10487 on the 5th with the monthly reset at -7 confirming this and -8 on the 5day.

USDCHF confirmed A Up at 0.93865 on the 6th with the monthly reset at +6 confirming this and a very nice +10 on he 5 day.

These are the best looking ones out of the +-18 I follow. Some more my get added to the list as the number lines improve.

On the EURUSD I will look to get short on either on a failed weekly A up or on a return to the A down on the monthly. With the USDCHF similar to above but looking to get long on failed A downs or on a return to the monthly A up.

Looking at the Dollar strength we are starting to price in an early hike but any misses on the retail sales or PPI reports could change this and cause some short term covering. There are lots of dollar bulls at the moment and any serious misses might have them running for the exit.

Just my 2 cents.
 
trader31 said:
I was curious how others score a failed A down followed by a failed A up and then a confirmed A down. I was debating -3 vs. -2 and had reasonable arguments for both. Any thoughts? Thanks
More...

Hello trader31,

What did you decide? I'd like to hear your reasoning if you don't mind.

Thanks.
 
Jeese Rob,

You beat me to it. I take it your in Europe somewhere to be posting at this time? It would be really good to have some constructive criticism from the older guys from this thread.

I am up to page 700 at the moment and have read the book around 3 times. It is the best thread in this place for sure.
 
redbaron1981 said:
Jeese Rob,

You beat me to it. I take it your in Europe somewhere to be posting at this time? It would be really good to have some constructive criticism from the older guys from this thread.

I am up to page 700 at the moment and have read the book around 3 times. It is the best thread in this place for sure.
More...

Hands down best thread ever. :)
 
Considering assets classes of Currencies,equities,commodities and sovereign rates,
I would like to learn more of the close interplay between rates and currencies rather than the other two. I smile at Mavericks warning months ago of these currency moves as possibly historic and seeing it playing out. Euro all time low of .82ish in year(s) to come? Its probably not too late to still make some money.
 
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