The ACD Method

ignl said:
Hi! Here I have some statistics from my application for currencies and their OR. As you know OR is important because it is statistically significant and OR high/low is often session high/low. This statistics are for currencies for or 3:00-3:30 est (london open). Results I found are ~30+% of the time OR high/low is also session high/low. By session I mean from 3:30 till 17:00. Please find an attachment, I hope it will be interesting to someone :) One anomaly is EUR/USD which happens 89% of the time. I think I will need to take a look into that :) If someone have similar statistics I would be interested to see them and compare.
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Sorry I forgot to save file before uploading. There are data on more currencies. Attaching a new one.
 
ignl said:
Sorry I forgot to save file before uploading. There are data on more currencies. Attaching a new one.
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Very interesting to me, thanks. :)

I have been trying a 30 minute OR at the London open, but score on a 24 hour day. Sometime in future I will need to isolate the Asian session and see what difference this makes. Observation from the scoring process is that there is often a move back into the OR or even across just before the London Open, but no stats on this.
 
DT3 said:
The EUR/USD figure has to be off right? Very interesting stuff thx for posting.
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Yeah those are preliminary results I need to check my code as EUR/USD is really a red flag that something is wrong :) Will update later with new findings. I'm not strong at math, but my calculation would be that there are 14 hours from 3 am to 17 pm that means 28 30 min intervals. So there should be 1/28(3.5%) probability that interval is high of whole session and 1/28(3.5%) probability that interval is low of the session. That would be ~7% percent probability that interval is low or high of the session. ~30% for opening range would look quite good then. Let me know if my math is off :)
 
koolaid said:
so according to these extremes, low readings indicate mass fear and put buying; thus, a bullish contrarian indicator?
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No. It's not really meant to be used like that. The indicator is sold as more of a trend. The trading signals are really generated when the moving averages of the ISEE reading get to extremes. In other words, when you get a huge series of extreme readings. I have noticed when you have spikes on one day at the end of "long" moves it tends to give a great warning sign. Well, a 3 day selloff does not qualify as a long move. LOL. Now a reading that low obviously shows the panic that overcame this market from what was some very high call readings. And that print that I posted a week back was really a series of really high prints that I have noticed for about a month now. So it really wasn't just "one" day. I do think you can probably get a bounce off that reading for a day or two but my opinion is to avoid the index markets altogether. It's going to be really messy now for a few months after that long sustained smooth rally. Markets don't just race back to the highs and they are not just going to roll over nice and smooth. It's going to be very choppy.
 
Maverick74 said:
BTW I've just started tracking the number lines again for Cotton, Coffee, Sugar, Coco, Corn, Wheat and Soybeans if anyone wants to begin a dialogue on any of those products. I'm tracking everything but the sun now. :)
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Good to see other traders using the ACD method.....soybeans is one of my favorite instruments....it moves like a freight train......I'm having trouble getting data for Coffee and Sugar.......the little back testing that I have done on Coco and Corn looks a little thin to me........maybe I need to change the OR times.

Also me and another ACD trader have a free chat room where we can share screens and talk about set ups......send me a PM with your e-mail and we can send you an invite to join the room
 
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