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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Honestly, number lines are extremely time consuming because it's qualitative work, not quantitative. You can try to skimp on time if you want, but then you get the old, "get what you pay for" problem. Usually an hour to hour and half a night just do them. Then you have to analyze them and go through all your charts.
Hello Mav,
I know from a number of your previous posts how important it is for us newbies to be tracking currency A levels and numberlines. In the very near future I will open the appropriate accounts to get the necessary data to do just that.
In addition to currency numberlines and the individual stocks we might track, if you get a chance perhaps you could suggest to us newbs some of the other items you suggest we track and observe.
Thank you sir.
Hello Mav,
I know from a number of your previous posts how important it is for us newbies to be tracking currency A levels and numberlines. In the very near future I will open the appropriate accounts to get the necessary data to do just that.
In addition to currency numberlines and the individual stocks we might track, if you get a chance perhaps you could suggest to us newbs some of the other items you suggest we track and observe.
Thank you sir.
I posted the list of ETF's earlier in the thread. I think you have those. From that ETF list specifically I like to focus in on the VIX, Steel, IYT, XLF, XLB. On the commodity side, Copper and Bonds. And of course the currencies. You can throw the yield curve in there as well.
I posted the list of ETF's earlier in the thread. I think you have those. From that ETF list specifically I like to focus in on the VIX, Steel, IYT, XLF, XLB. On the commodity side, Copper and Bonds. And of course the currencies. You can throw the yield curve in there as well.
That's good stuff sir.
I have all your past posts where you listed 20 commodity ETF's, the 9 sectors etc and I have them in watch lists. However, I really appreciate this focused down list.
Thank you.
This thread is full of insightful and informative trading posts from Mav and a number of other good folks that have nothing to do with ACD. Thereâs trading gold in this here thread.
As a sampling of excellent general trading info with no reference to ACD, this evenings Presidentâs Day greatest hits comes from the underground ebook, Mav the ACD Mentor, Chapter 25, Trading Wisdom, Page 1 of 8:
2-22-11 05:51 PM
I'm dead serious. Look, what kills most guys is leverage. The reason why retail guys actually have a "slightly" higher success rate is that most of them are not using the same leverage as prop guys. Leverage speeds up the game very fast. Very few people can trade at that speed over the long term.
Another problem for most of them is over trading. Over trading with leverage is not a good formula. Most of them also lacked discipline. Most of them were just in this game for the quick money, not because they had a real passion for trading. You would be amazed at how many people came into my office and the first thing they told me is that they were passionate about trading and passion was one thing they actually didn't have. At the end of the day, most people lie to themselves as much as they lie to others.
Another factor was directional trading. The market neutral guys tend to survive in this game. Even Fisher himself started saying this recently that they were spreading everything. Just punting on direction each and every day over and over is a tough gig. Directional trading is pretty simple and straightforward if one is not using leverage. But directional trading with leverage is a whole other beast.
12-22-11 09:00 PM
I would say most traders blow up a few times before they become successful. So by default, all successful traders probably blew up as well. I think ego is a big problem with most traders. Learning to admit you are wrong and need to fix something. Ideally you want to be around other traders if you are going to do this for a living. Trading from home or from work is just not feasible. This doesn't mean you need to join a prop firm, but maybe rent a space and share with other traders. Most of the guys that blew up at my firm were remote traders trading from home by themselves.
And let me say this, intuitively you would think traders want to trade the most volatile product they can find, like Crude Oil. But my experience has been over the last 15 years, is that traderâs who focus on the most volatile products doesnât make it. The ones that trade the calmer stuff seem to have more longevity.
The stocks I use to trade back in the day where stocks most guys on here have never heard of, but I made money every day and took home paychecks. The guys that tried to trade all the high flying NASDAQ stocks rarely took home a check. One of the biggest myths out there is that traders want to trade volatile stuff. I don't buy that for a second. At least my experience tells me not to.
10-26-11 03:23 AM
The thing with fading is it's synthetically the same as selling option premium. It has a high win rate with small wins but it can get ugly. Right now we are in an environment where stocks are not moving much because they are waiting for this news out of Europe. Fading everything is working right now! I assure you, it gets ugly when it stops working. And I don't mean that you will have one large loss. It's just the environment will change where you will take hit after hit after hit. Mean reversion is the one strategy that never seems to go away yet it is solely responsible for eliminating more trading careers than any other strategy. The trading Gods are cruel like that.
10-26-11 03:35 AM
Well, as I said before, if one is going to trade equities, your long term success will be almost entirely dependent on your ability to select the right stocks. Not an easy task, but then, trading is not easy. After you have been doing this for a while, you will develop a feel for what's going to move and what's not and what will have follow through. The problem is once you set your mind to looking for fades, all the momentum moves disappear from your sight. It's funny how that works. It's all about how your train your mind to look for opportunity
As a sampling of excellent general trading info with no reference to ACD, this evenings Presidentâs Day greatest hits comes from the underground ebook, Mav the ACD Mentor, Chapter 25, Trading Wisdom, Page 1 of 8:
2-22-11 05:51 PM
I'm dead serious. Look, what kills most guys is leverage. The reason why retail guys actually have a "slightly" higher success rate is that most of them are not using the same leverage as prop guys. Leverage speeds up the game very fast. Very few people can trade at that speed over the long term.
Another problem for most of them is over trading. Over trading with leverage is not a good formula. Most of them also lacked discipline. Most of them were just in this game for the quick money, not because they had a real passion for trading. You would be amazed at how many people came into my office and the first thing they told me is that they were passionate about trading and passion was one thing they actually didn't have. At the end of the day, most people lie to themselves as much as they lie to others.
Another factor was directional trading. The market neutral guys tend to survive in this game. Even Fisher himself started saying this recently that they were spreading everything. Just punting on direction each and every day over and over is a tough gig. Directional trading is pretty simple and straightforward if one is not using leverage. But directional trading with leverage is a whole other beast.
12-22-11 09:00 PM
I would say most traders blow up a few times before they become successful. So by default, all successful traders probably blew up as well. I think ego is a big problem with most traders. Learning to admit you are wrong and need to fix something. Ideally you want to be around other traders if you are going to do this for a living. Trading from home or from work is just not feasible. This doesn't mean you need to join a prop firm, but maybe rent a space and share with other traders. Most of the guys that blew up at my firm were remote traders trading from home by themselves.
And let me say this, intuitively you would think traders want to trade the most volatile product they can find, like Crude Oil. But my experience has been over the last 15 years, is that traderâs who focus on the most volatile products doesnât make it. The ones that trade the calmer stuff seem to have more longevity.
The stocks I use to trade back in the day where stocks most guys on here have never heard of, but I made money every day and took home paychecks. The guys that tried to trade all the high flying NASDAQ stocks rarely took home a check. One of the biggest myths out there is that traders want to trade volatile stuff. I don't buy that for a second. At least my experience tells me not to.
10-26-11 03:23 AM
The thing with fading is it's synthetically the same as selling option premium. It has a high win rate with small wins but it can get ugly. Right now we are in an environment where stocks are not moving much because they are waiting for this news out of Europe. Fading everything is working right now! I assure you, it gets ugly when it stops working. And I don't mean that you will have one large loss. It's just the environment will change where you will take hit after hit after hit. Mean reversion is the one strategy that never seems to go away yet it is solely responsible for eliminating more trading careers than any other strategy. The trading Gods are cruel like that.
10-26-11 03:35 AM
Well, as I said before, if one is going to trade equities, your long term success will be almost entirely dependent on your ability to select the right stocks. Not an easy task, but then, trading is not easy. After you have been doing this for a while, you will develop a feel for what's going to move and what's not and what will have follow through. The problem is once you set your mind to looking for fades, all the momentum moves disappear from your sight. It's funny how that works. It's all about how your train your mind to look for opportunity
Good stuff Robert. This thread is long enough now that reading some of the older stuff from different market cycles gives one interesting perspective when comparing it to the current environment.
Good stuff Robert. This thread is long enough now that reading some of the older stuff from different market cycles gives one interesting perspective when comparing it to the current environment.
Mav, isn't spreading very similar to mean reversion (trading convergences and divergences)?
Mav, isn't spreading very similar to mean reversion (trading convergences and divergences)?
Well, I'm using the term in a very broad fashion. For example, when I held equity baskets, I always had downside index exposure. That is one way of "spreading". Another could be as you mentioned, doing con/div trades in futures spreads. Another way could be creating directional positions expressed as a spread. The way I trade, a spread almost always represents a directional view.
Hey CD, are you in any of these oil spreads?
Aren't you always taking some kind of directional risk? Isn't that what the market is paying us to do? It doesn't matter if you are in a spread or not. Traders get paid for taking on some sort of risk that others are not willing or capable of taking.
I can't find any scenario where you get paid money and take zero risk.
I can't find any scenario where you get paid money and take zero risk.