Ammo, sorry I didn't get back to this. I've been swamped lately. I haven't updated these number lines in a few weeks. I'll try to update them this weekend.
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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Ammo, sorry I didn't get back to this. I've been swamped lately. I haven't updated these number lines in a few weeks. I'll try to update them this weekend.
Mav,
Curious how much time you spend daily updating number lines checking price action etc?
Honestly, number lines are extremely time consuming because it's qualitative work, not quantitative. You can try to skimp on time if you want, but then you get the old, "get what you pay for" problem. Usually an hour to hour and half a night just do them. Then you have to analyze them and go through all your charts.
CL at QTR Aup for me. However my 30NL has a count of zero. I take OR at pit open, but use the entire 24 hr period for determining the NL for each day. Is this wrong ?
I am trying to see why an obviously bullish chart for the past 5 weeks would yield a 30NL that never broke above 5 during the entire QTR ADn to Aup trace.
Appreciate if anyone can educate me.
I am trying to see why an obviously bullish chart for the past 5 weeks would yield a 30NL that never broke above 5 during the entire QTR ADn to Aup trace.
Appreciate if anyone can educate me.
CL at QTR Aup for me. However my 30NL has a count of zero. I take OR at pit open, but use the entire 24 hr period for determining the NL for each day. Is this wrong ?
I am trying to see why an obviously bullish chart for the past 5 weeks would yield a 30NL that never broke above 5 during the entire QTR ADn to Aup trace.
Appreciate if anyone can educate me.
Again, sorry for the late response. So another good question and one we've talked a lot about in the archives. What I've said before is the number line is not a buy and sell indicator. And the number line does not get you into trades that break out on fast breaks without some sort of basing price action. For example, this ENTIRE rally in nat gas came on a negative number line!
Understanding the structure of ACD is FAR more important then having the "right"levels or the "right" OR times or whatever. Anytime you deal with data of any sort, one has to understand the limitations of that data. Number lines are very SLOW moving. For example, if AAPL went up 100 pts today, the highest value the NL could score it would be a +2 or +3 (+4's are rare). It does not matter how much a % move AAPL makes, the number line does not take magnitude of move into account. So any "sharp" move in any product, such as in natty and oil recently, the number line is not going to get you in that ahead of the move. THAT is one of the limitations of the data.
Where number lines DO have the most value is finding sleepy products that are awaking from long naps. Also, they are good at alerting you to moves that are not OBVIOUS to other traders. They are NOT to be used as breakout vehicles or momentum trades. That is what the A levels are for. Both natty and oil gave great levels to get long on both on various time frames. Both also gave you great entries on pullbacks. Also, both gave you great +5 confirmations to TAKE those A level trades. Remember, the 5 day is useful for momentum because they "adjust" very fast. The 30 days are slow and calculating.
The other limitation you have with ALL the number lines is the time period in which you are tracking them. In the case of natural gas, they were making huge moves over night and early morning and then traded sideways and down during the US trading hours. Again, one has to understand the limitations of the data. I have and use secondary number line derivatives to compensate for this stuff. Hopefully, this helped explain what you are seeing.
What does that mean?both gave you great +5 confirmations.
Do you mean by "confirmation" that now not only is the 30 day line over/under 9/-9, but that also now the 5 day number line is also over/under 9/-9?
What does that mean?
Do you mean by "confirmation" that now not only is the 30 day line over/under 9/-9, but that also now the 5 day number line is also over/under 9/-9?
No. Do a search in the archives and you'll get a lot of info on this. The 5 day has nothing to do with the 30 day. It's a momentum number line. It either "confirms" or "rejects" various A levels. The 5 day has significant readings at the +/-5 level. They rarely track the 30 day as both are dropping off different values every day.
The other limitation you have with ALL the number lines is the time period in which you are tracking them. In the case of natural gas, they were making huge moves over night and early morning and then traded sideways and down during the US trading hours. Again, one has to understand the limitations of the data. I have and use secondary number line derivatives to compensate for this stuff. Hopefully, this helped explain what you are seeing.
Mav...CL has had this overnite "problem" as well and I remember Fish has been using the post Brent close as a possible OR...any insight into how to handle this? multiple ORs and numberlines?....also seems to be a lot of games to artificially influence settlement in the last 15mins of the pit session and then the post close moving significantly esp in products. Any thoughts?
Thanks
No. Do a search in the archives and you'll get a lot of info on this. The 5 day has nothing to do with the 30 day. It's a momentum number line. It either "confirms" or "rejects" various A levels. The 5 day has significant readings at the +/-5 level. They rarely track the 30 day as both are dropping off different values every day.
I did a search of the archives and as you predicted saw much discussion about using the 5 day momentum number but was unable to find anything about what it is, or how it is calculated. Also, did not see anything like it on Fisher's nightly web "Commodity Numberline" page
In "Logical Trader" pp137-8, momentum is discussed as a binary, the market today is or is not higher than x days ago. Is this the basis for your 5 day momentum number?
I am not a lazy sob but I am stumped on this, especially realizing that you give the 5 day momentum line great importance.