I'll give you an example I posted on this thread just a few days ago. Gold made a confirmed monthly A up. Shan asked me about it. I told him I was suspect of the breakout because the entire commodity complex was getting sold hard. All the grains rolled over hard. Coffee, coco, sugar, all them were getting hit. That is not the best environment to be buying a breakout in Gold. So I told Shan I didn't like the trade. Sure enough the next morning Gold came off 30 handles. Now it still might end up breaking out. All the other commodities are sitting at their monthly A downs. If those levels hold and they lift then Gold might have enough energy to break out. I would be shocked to see Gold actually trade higher with grains going in free fall. There is an example where watching the price action of other products kept me out of a trade that technically on paper confirmed a buy signal.
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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
I'll give you an example I posted on this thread just a few days ago. Gold made a confirmed monthly A up. Shan asked me about it. I told him I was suspect of the breakout because the entire commodity complex was getting sold hard. All the grains rolled over hard. Coffee, coco, sugar, all them were getting hit. That is not the best environment to be buying a breakout in Gold. So I told Shan I didn't like the trade. Sure enough the next morning Gold came off 30 handles. Now it still might end up breaking out. All the other commodities are sitting at their monthly A downs. If those levels hold and they lift then Gold might have enough energy to break out. I would be shocked to see Gold actually trade higher with grains going in free fall. There is an example where watching the price action of other products kept me out of a trade that technically on paper confirmed a buy signal.
Quote from Maverick74:
I'll give you an example I posted on this thread just a few days ago. Gold made a confirmed monthly A up. Shan asked me about it. I told him I was suspect of the breakout because the entire commodity complex was getting sold hard. All the grains rolled over hard. Coffee, coco, sugar, all them were getting hit. That is not the best environment to be buying a breakout in Gold. So I told Shan I didn't like the trade. Sure enough the next morning Gold came off 30 handles. Now it still might end up breaking out. All the other commodities are sitting at their monthly A downs. If those levels hold and they lift then Gold might have enough energy to break out. I would be shocked to see Gold actually trade higher with grains going in free fall. There is an example where watching the price action of other products kept me out of a trade that technically on paper confirmed a buy signal.
This would be great start to an ACD' commodities thread.....
Quote from Maverick74:
Can you kindly explain where your frustration is coming from? You said earlier you don't want people putting their trades out. Then you said you did want them to with more detail. Then you said you want more discussion of the method. I have put over 500 pages of in depth explanations of the method. In fact, I'll argue there are more details, more explanations, more examples of this method on this thread then any thread existing now or have ever existed on the history of this web site. So where "exactly" is your frustration coming from?
Trades are not what I am after. Its about the method to madness that can be tested to a certain degree..... thanks
I dont like sigle calls on a stock for example, more interested in what indications would make me shy away from a trade. Such as you explain of gold
Quote from MBC:
Trades are not what I am after. Its about the method to madness that can be tested to a certain degree..... thanks
I dont like sigle calls on a stock for example, more interested in what indications would make me shy away from a trade. Such as you explain of gold
See, here is the problem I have. In order to keep a thread active and moving, I have to make it appealing to a wide audience. Some guys here hate stocks. Some hate commodities. Some hate FX. If I make this thread too specific it will have very little activity and it will die. So I try to show how ACD can be used to trade any product in any time frame in any market environment. I welcome people to ask about any product under the sun.
I understand that every person on here has specific interests but I have to make it more broad based then that. Have you read this thread from start to finish?
Quote from Maverick74:
See, here is the problem I have. In order to keep a thread active and moving, I have to make it appealing to a wide audience. Some guys here hate stocks. Some hate commodities. Some hate FX. If I make this thread too specific it will have very little activity and it will die. So I try to show how ACD can be used to trade any product in any time frame in any market environment. I welcome people to ask about any product under the sun.
I understand that every person on here has specific interests but I have to make it more broad based then that. Have you read this thread from start to finish?
Cant say that I read EACH page but many. I have and stil do refer to the logical trader.
Also going to have to learn more about how I can prepare the montly A' levels , I have been focusing on daily.
You use continuation contract ?
Quote from Maverick74:
I'll give you an example I posted on this thread just a few days ago. Gold made a confirmed monthly A up. Shan asked me about it. I told him I was suspect of the breakout because the entire commodity complex was getting sold hard. All the grains rolled over hard. Coffee, coco, sugar, all them were getting hit. That is not the best environment to be buying a breakout in Gold. So I told Shan I didn't like the trade. Sure enough the next morning Gold came off 30 handles. Now it still might end up breaking out. All the other commodities are sitting at their monthly A downs. If those levels hold and they lift then Gold might have enough energy to break out. I would be shocked to see Gold actually trade higher with grains going in free fall. There is an example where watching the price action of other products kept me out of a trade that technically on paper confirmed a buy signal.
Thats a really good example...definately saved some money there. We were also at the end of the week(Friday), I'm assumming late week moves tend to fail more often than early cycle(week) moves.
Here's a good intraday example that I still remember from last month. on 12/20 we gapped up close to 2% on the SPY and I remember missing a trade in RIMM when it was getting sold on a day like that. I ended up taking a failed A-trade in the SPY partly because i missed my RIMM trade and that the market was so extended volatility-wise I thought we would get a pullback at the A level( we were up close to 2.5%).
I remember Mav mentioned that the market would go higher and that was a bad trade. Every spread had been choppy indicating there was wide participation in the rally. When you have that kind of wide participation in a rally or sell off it is very likely to continue. It's the same with the Gold trade, the commodity complex was showing weakness and it is very hard for Gold to lift off without the ag's and other commodities.
Let me know if I screwed anything up in my explanation Mav, I thought this was a pretty good recent example.
Quote from Shanb:
Thats a really good example...definately saved some money there. We were also at the end of the week(Friday), I'm assumming late week moves tend to fail more often than early cycle(week) moves.
Here's a good intraday example that I still remember from last month. on 12/20 we gapped up close to 2% on the SPY and I remember missing a trade in RIMM when it was getting sold on a day like that. I ended up taking a failed A-trade in the SPY partly because i missed my RIMM trade and that the market was so extended volatility-wise I thought we would get a pullback at the A level( we were up close to 2.5%).
I remember Mav mentioned that the market would go higher and that was a bad trade. Every spread had been choppy indicating there was wide participation in the rally. When you have that kind of wide participation in a rally or sell off it is very likely to continue. It's the same with the Gold trade, the commodity complex was showing weakness and it is very hard for Gold to lift off without the ag's and other commodities.
Let me know if I screwed anything up in my explanation Mav, I thought this was a pretty good recent example.
The trade that day would've been being long the strongest stocks of the day, like AAPL(directional). Or with a spread Being long SPY, short FXE...or long a strong sector and short a lagging one.
Quote from Shanb:
Thats a really good example...definately saved some money there. We were also at the end of the week(Friday), I'm assumming late week moves tend to fail more often than early cycle(week) moves.
Here's a good intraday example that I still remember from last month. on 12/20 we gapped up close to 2% on the SPY and I remember missing a trade in RIMM when it was getting sold on a day like that. I ended up taking a failed A-trade in the SPY partly because i missed my RIMM trade and that the market was so extended volatility-wise I thought we would get a pullback at the A level( we were up close to 2.5%).
I remember Mav mentioned that the market would go higher and that was a bad trade. Every spread had been choppy indicating there was wide participation in the rally. When you have that kind of wide participation in a rally or sell off it is very likely to continue. It's the same with the Gold trade, the commodity complex was showing weakness and it is very hard for Gold to lift off without the ag's and other commodities.
Let me know if I screwed anything up in my explanation Mav, I thought this was a pretty good recent example.
Sounds good to me. We have given 100's of examples on this thread over the last few years of these types of trades. All one has to do is go back over and read the thread.
Quote from Shanb:
Thats a really good example...definately saved some money there. We were also at the end of the week(Friday), I'm assumming late week moves tend to fail more often than early cycle(week) moves.
Here's a good intraday example that I still remember from last month. on 12/20 we gapped up close to 2% on the SPY and I remember missing a trade in RIMM when it was getting sold on a day like that. I ended up taking a failed A-trade in the SPY partly because i missed my RIMM trade and that the market was so extended volatility-wise I thought we would get a pullback at the A level( we were up close to 2.5%).
I remember Mav mentioned that the market would go higher and that was a bad trade. Every spread had been choppy indicating there was wide participation in the rally. When you have that kind of wide participation in a rally or sell off it is very likely to continue. It's the same with the Gold trade, the commodity complex was showing weakness and it is very hard for Gold to lift off without the ag's and other commodities.
Let me know if I screwed anything up in my explanation Mav, I thought this was a pretty good recent example.
Best said "really good example" ... not actual