RCG, it's all notional based. A 3% drop in a currency is huge! I don't care if it moves in 100 pip increments. LOL. You get paid on notional value, not demarcation! LOL.
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
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RCG, it's all notional based. A 3% drop in a currency is huge! I don't care if it moves in 100 pip increments. LOL. You get paid on notional value, not demarcation! LOL.
Quote from Maverick74:
Ahh, I see part of the issue here. You are using wider OR. I have a nice confirmed A down in BIDU with great follow through. Stock came in 3 1/2 pts after it went through my A down. No wonder you are not finding good A downs!!!!! Christ man. We were talking apples and oranges. Yes, if you set your OR wide enough, then all you will find are fades! Use a 5 min OR "if" you want to find good confirmed A trades.
I use 5 min too. But you have to treat currencies like commodities. Not quite sure why yet. So if you do have another bone
I got that, but I have seen moves in Aud/Usd that are moves more than three percent. I have not yet figgered the exotics so I am posting out of my hip pocket and not on solid ground. Not debating, questioning.
Quote from Maverick74:
Ahh, I see part of the issue here. You are using wider OR. I have a nice confirmed A down in BIDU with great follow through. Stock came in 3 1/2 pts after it went through my A down. No wonder you are not finding good A downs!!!!! Christ man. We were talking apples and oranges. Yes, if you set your OR wide enough, then all you will find are fades! Use a 5 min OR "if" you want to find good confirmed A trades.
LOL. I tried using a 5-minute OR originally and I was missing so many good moves. So hard to plug in the OR in excel, see the ATR %, plot it, confirm the a, take the trade lol!
These A-levels work great tho, I see things bounce right off of these levels so often...sometimes they go right back through. The wider 20 minuted OR does provide good fades tho.
One thing I look at the confirm a ranging stock. plot the volume histogram for the day. If the VWAP=POC(or the peak volume thing) then it is ranging(symmetric distribution). If it the VWAP is below it...then the distribution is skewed and fading it is a quick way to lose your shirt! I may be complicating the issue, but there is a difference between a stock that is stretched to the A and as a normal distribution or one that is skewed and trending!
Yeah I've seen 3% moves all over the place, but I was pointing out this pair to you because it is the cleanest breakdown of the dollar I see across all the pairs right now. This thing ran up from 1.38 to 1.90 in less then a year. I think it could easily hit 1.50 again. But you missed the monthly A down at 1.82 so I would look for a failed weekly A up next week or perhaps a failed monthly A up in Nov to get in. This thing could drop 2000 to 3000 pips. I don't see the AUD/USD rallying to 1.35 or 1.40 in the same time frame. This monthly alone the pair has dropped almost 15%. This might just be the opening act.
Well, all currencies are not 1:1 as far as payment is concerned. Overly simplified, but I am sure you get the point.
Got that, I'm on it.
Well cross rates are not 1:1 but USD based ones are.
Anyway, the point I'm making here...is that the dollar index is up sharply today right? Risk assets are getting sold today right? Yet the dollar is getting killed against the TRY. That my friend is called price action! I look for pairs where the dollar is getting killed when risk assets are down. Heaven forbid we get an end of year rally in risk assets and this pair will totally collapse.
The answer is.....leverage!!!!!!!!!