I'm going to start pounding the table on another trade here. That trade is live cattle. Live cattle is in a huge bull market. It's a quiet trade that very few people are talking about. It's above my monthly and QTR A up and confirmed a weekly A up today. Many fundamental guys are saying 165 as a minimum price target.
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
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Quote from Maverick74:
I'm going to start pounding the table on another trade here. That trade is live cattle. Live cattle is in a huge bull market. It's a quiet trade that very few people are talking about. It's above my monthly and QTR A up and confirmed a weekly A up today. Many fundamental guys are saying 165 as a minimum price target.
Does anybody else trade off monthly and weekly A down levels in here besides Maverick?
If so, i would like to know framework for calculating weekly and monthly levels.
Maverick is nice enough to pound the table of these monthly and weekly A levels trades but i can not trade or use them as i am not sure how he is coming up with these levels?
What time frame you trade off, daily like me or you also use weekly or monthly to filter daily ACD system?
You can use monthly pivots, the number line, etc. I'm not a fundamental guy so I don't want to act like I know anything about live cattle because I don't. But there are some people in this industry that think this product could go parabolic due to all the cattle being slaughtered right now due to the drought in TX.
From a technical perspective, this market looks nice. It has not gotten to a point where you look at the chart and say, I don't want to chase it. Just watch the price action. BTW, there is an ETF, of course called COW.
Mfbreakout,
My weekly, monthly, qtr, half year, and yearly levels, (and yes, I'm working on some longer term time frame stuff too-like decades etc) are super simple. Just take your OR and whatever percentage it is in relation to the larger time-frame should be translated across time-frames. So for instance, if your daily OR is 10 percent of a trading day, then make your weekly and monthly ORs 10 percent of the trading week or month.
Same for qtr, half year, full year, etc. Not sure how others are doing it, but this seems to work for me anyway.
With regard to your A level, if you use 20 - 25 percent of the ATR, (5 day, 10 day, 30 day etc) just be sure you're using the correct time-frames. So a monthly A level would be 20-25 percent of the last 5,10,or 30 months.
Let me know if this doesn't make sense, and if others have anything else to share please add. I'm always looking to improve too.
My weekly, monthly, qtr, half year, and yearly levels, (and yes, I'm working on some longer term time frame stuff too-like decades etc) are super simple. Just take your OR and whatever percentage it is in relation to the larger time-frame should be translated across time-frames. So for instance, if your daily OR is 10 percent of a trading day, then make your weekly and monthly ORs 10 percent of the trading week or month.
Same for qtr, half year, full year, etc. Not sure how others are doing it, but this seems to work for me anyway.
With regard to your A level, if you use 20 - 25 percent of the ATR, (5 day, 10 day, 30 day etc) just be sure you're using the correct time-frames. So a monthly A level would be 20-25 percent of the last 5,10,or 30 months.
Let me know if this doesn't make sense, and if others have anything else to share please add. I'm always looking to improve too.
Anybody have an opinion about the 30 day trading cycle. If there was a plus or minus day 30 days ago, does it increase the liklihood of it happening today? Any observations about what you have noticed?
I've been going through the SPY for the past 90 days or so and it doesn't seem to be significant...just my observation after looking at it over this short period of time
I've been going through the SPY for the past 90 days or so and it doesn't seem to be significant...just my observation after looking at it over this short period of time
You want to be a little careful with this. A lot of this depends on what type of trader you are. Are you a breakout trader or a fader. I would exercise some caution in using similar opening ranges for crude oil and ES for example. One is a momentum product, the other is a mean reversion product.
Also, the intra-day time scale is very unique and does not translate well to larger time frames. Just try to think about the product you are trading and try to ask yourself what are you asking ACD to show you about that product.
Shan, it is my understanding that he only used the 30 day look back if other factors lined up as well. For example, say with crude oil 30 days ago it made an A up. And coming into today you have a plus 11 on the number line and crude is opening above the daily pivot range. Then factoring in that it made a good A up 30 days ago is in play.