The ACD Method

[justrading]

Well, I constructed a position that acts like a long straddle while technically being short vol. The profits are going to come from the movement in the Euro, not from being short vol.

Your point about the movement in the Euro reminds me of a saying from the great Atticus when CDCaveman and I were arguing about the esoterica of options.

"None of this amounts to a hill of d*cks if you can't forecast price or vol with some degree of accuracy."

About sums up your position.

 

[Maverick74]

Sorry, I did not mean to reduce your research and insights into simply "selling vol".

I just wanted to further clarify...in case anyone interpreted my comments into this being simply an event driven vol scenario. I'm actually betting on "movement". If the Euro goes no where I won't make any money which is usually the opposite of the case of someone who say would sell a straddle. There is potential for some huge moves here and that point cannot be lost on the trader.

 

[MoneyMatthew]

There is potential for some huge moves here and that point cannot be lost on the trader.

You are right about that, the Le Pen train is leaving the station and it ain't gonna stop! LOL.

 

[justrading]

And in other news today.

Positive for cable?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...b910&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

 

[justrading]

As has been noted, today is the first round in the French Presidential elections, and after whatever volatility, we will have the second round in May to contend with.

There is also June, so much going on in FX land.

"France holds two rounds of legislative elections in June, however, and without a parliamentary majority, any new president’s powers would in practice be limited."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...g-begins-eu-le-pen?CMP=twt_a-world_b-gdnworld

 

[justrading]

Mav or anyone else, you track VALE, BHP, RIO?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ructure-plan-a-boon-for-iron-ore-cormann-says

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=60

P/E for BHP is a bit rich, 38.37 (17.57 forward earnings), the other two are more reasonable, but even then it manages a 3% dividend so maybe that's just the way the market sees it.

 

[i960]

https://twitter.com/x/status/854836440907128832

 

[justrading]

Three hours before the polls close and the Interior Ministry has reported 69.42% turnout v 70.59% at the same time in the last election. Pundits have maintained a low turnout would be positive for Le Pen, let's see.

 

[Maverick74]

As I've said before, one thing the market will know for sure after this round today is who will NOT win. This should dampen volatility for the 2nd round.

 

[SteveM]

Le Pen, Macron Jostle for Lead in Early Count of French Vote

"The National Front’s Le Pen, 48, has 24.3 percent, according to initial estimates by the Interior Ministry. Macron, 39, has 21.4 percent. Republican Francois Fillon has 20.3 percent.

The figures are based on the initial count of actual votes. Some pollsters have put Macron in the lead based on initial estimates."

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...ad-in-early-count-of-french-presidential-vote