The 5 year return of Bitcoin is ZERO today

[johnarb]

I gave it more thought, and I think that is highly unlikely. This is what would happen:

Tether starts to drop, let's say it is at 90 cents. Tether holders get scares and start to buy just about anything. That causes a short term rally, I would say a few days tops. (maybe just a few hours, depends on how fast the exchanges act) Somebody has to be getting all those unwanted Tethers and that is the exchanges. So they quickly realize that they are the ones ending up holding the Tether bag and will suspend Tether trading. Probably other stable coins get dumped too for at least a while. If another stable coin can take up Tether's current role that is still to be seen.

So a short term rally and suspension of Tether trading what I see.

You might be correct that exchanges will halt Tether trading, but that's cefi

defi platforms, i.e. dexes will not halt until liquidity is drained from all liquidity pools

And there are the other $60 Billion worth of other stablecoins, USDC, BUSD, USDP, GUSD that will be used to buy bitcoins and other crypto assets.... and those stablecoins are issued by US companies

 

[deaddog]

I gave it more thought, and I think that is highly unlikely. This is what would happen:

Tether starts to drop, let's say it is at 90 cents. Tether holders get scares and start to buy just about anything. That causes a short term rally, I would say a few days tops. (maybe just a few hours, depends on how fast the exchanges act) Somebody has to be getting all those unwanted Tethers and that is the exchanges. So they quickly realize that they are the ones ending up holding the Tether bag and will suspend Tether trading. Probably other stable coins get dumped too for at least a while. If another stable coin can take up Tether's current role that is still to be seen.

So a short term rally and suspension of Tether trading what I see.

Why do you assume that someone holding Tether would buy crypto? I would go to cash. Good ole US dollars and wait to see what happens. If I have to store value for the next month or so I'm going to cash.

 

[johnarb]

Why do you assume that someone holding Tether would buy crypto? I would go to cash. Good ole US dollars and wait to see what happens. If I have to store value for the next month or so I'm going to cash.

 

[Pekelo]

Why do you assume that someone holding Tether would buy crypto?

What John said, in most exchanges you can't just cash out. If you could, tether wouldn't exist.

 

[Businessman]

It’s pretty pathetic you cherry pick the absolute bubble high from 2017, and the bear market low of 2022, and the return is still flat lol

what the return since you first were bearish on bitcoin at $30? Would love to hear that one.

Yahoo finance says the Dec 07/2017 close was $17,899

So this would be the FIRST TIME EVER in BTC history that it closed lower than it did 5 years ago.

That has never happened before in the history of bitcoin.

It has always traded higher that it was trading 5 years previous.

 

[Sekiyo]

The one year return of CL is zero

 

[Businessman]

The one year return of CL is zero

That is nothing new for CL.

Like i just said above, this is the first time ever BTC has made a 5 year low.

This is another indicator that the BTC rocket ship is running out of fuel (greater fool's money), it is no longer headed for the moon ($1M)

 

[M.W.]

During which you most likely hardly participated in. Or do you also put in hard earned dollars into some little obscure ventures that are currently valued by some die hards at 0.0000214 today?

What's the 10-year return?

 

[M.W.]

Circular argument right here. I can equally ask you why nobody sells all their tether today and moves it into bitcoin...

If Tether fails, the price of bitcoin may go up to $100K overnight

Everyone in the world will dump their Tether into bitcoin and other cryptos

You think they will dump bitcoins for fiat because Tether failed?

Why they don't dump bitcoins for fiat now is because because they use Tether as a banking system stable fiat, equivalent to a money-market account when you sell your Amazon or Apple shares

Remove the capability to sell for Tether and many bitcoin owners in the world will be unable to sell bitcoins for fiat as they are unbanked in places like Lebanon, Dubai, South Korea, Turkey, Argentina, etc

Everyone will be forced to be hodlers of bitcoins and crypto assets

Everyone will be forced to be buyers of bitcoins and crypto assets as they dump Tether and other stablecoins (no stablecoin will be trusted) for bitcoins and crypto assets

$120 Billion worth of stablecoins in a huge rush to buy bitcoins and cryptos

Did I say $100K overnight? Maybe $500K/btc within 24 hours

 

[M.W.]

In the grand scheme of things the entire American idea of ever growing equity markets and valuations is just an experiment and can't last for economic reasons. You can't ever grow a business beyond certain proportions. At some point you run out of ideas, space, funding, you face constant runins with oligopoly busters and regulators. Most of the honey of the middle class has already been harvested by the big fat firms. The middle class is nearly bankrupt, both financially and morally. Large companies and their CEOs can count themselves lucky if they don't get assassinated or raped within the next decade when the wild hordes start getting their guns and molotov cocktails. The current American economic and societal system is not tenable for too much longer. All the gullible cows have nearly been milked to exhaustion.

Going back to the topic of extended periods of sideway movement for the crypto market, here is the Nikkei 225 for the historically unaware.

Its ATH was in 1989 November, and 33 years later we are still 20% below that, never coming close to it in the last 3 decades:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data

As Clint Eastwood would say:

Do you have 3 decades, punk?