Take special note: this is why traders fail. Even when presented with the answer, they refuse to believe, and ask questions that were already answered, at great length, had they chosen to just r.e.a.d.
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The 10,000 hour rule.
- Thread starter rmb623
- Start date
Take special note: this is why traders fail. Even when presented with the answer, they refuse to believe, and ask questions that were already answered, at great length, had they chosen to just r.e.a.d.
Quote from achilles28:
I spent nearly ~10,000 hours at the trading game (10 years, this year, actually). Took me about 8 to achieve *consistent* profitability. Now, this year, I really turned a corner.
Perhaps 10K hours is the average. Some get it quicker. Most don't get it, at all. The problem, like many have eluded too already, is changing conditions. In actuality, the market never changes. The patterns and setups never change, but volatility changes. IOW, the AMPLITUDE of price action. Take a look at the VIX. It's 4 points off 30 year lows. One of the keys to this great riddle is understanding volatility, and how it impacts performance across different strategies. Really, in a high VIX environment, everything works. Single candle setups, pure price action, indicators, oscillators, momentum. Anything (that's a great edge, right there...). In a low VIX environment, you're gonna get eaten alive, if you don't know how to identify the trend, and trade ONLY with the trend.
That's basically why traders fail. They never learn to identify the trend, and trade only with the trend. All the markets do is trend up or down. Sometimes steep. Often, in this environment, shallow. In an uptrend, shorts get suckered in during retracements, then longs run their stops on to new highs. In downtrends, longs get suckered in on retracements, and shorts run their stops down to new lows. That is how the market works. There is nothing more to general market operation, beyond that simple concept.
Now, where do technical patterns like wedges, or flags, or pennants, head and shoulders, and multi-bar setups fit in to all that? They work too, but within their own confined parameters of each particular setup, which are usually, conceptually speaking, simply a different form of stop running. Triangles sucker in both longs and shorts, broadening wedges run up to run down (or reverse etc). Narrowing wedges signal weakness, then a quick break. Either way, they only occur with periodic frequency. The market trends ALL THE TIME. Which is superior? You tell me.
The reason why most fail, is because they take a single indicator, candle pattern, price action signal, and take every entry generated by that signal. The problem with this method, is it is BLIND to overall trends. It gets you in on both the main trend AND the retracement. After slippage, commissions and spread, you lose. You traded the tree, instead of the forest. Trading is all about trading the FOREST. NOT THE TREES. Understanding the market conceptually, as a whole. Not some rote, bar by bar, ignorant logic that will leave you sliced up in shreds, because you had no idea who the suckers were at the table (half the time....you!).
Where to go from here? You (aspiring and failed traders) need to become trend traders. Masters at identifying the trend, and entering only in the direction of established trends, on pullbacks. THAT is the holy grail. That secret alone just saved you 7 years chasing your tail, and possibly financial and emotional ruin. Trust me, I know. With concerted effort, this shouldn't take more than 18 months. Probably, less than a year.
Now, after writing all that, I doubt one person in this thread will follow my advice. I doubt more than one or two traders will comment on this post. That's also why traders fail - because they can't distinguish good advice from bad. There's many reasons why traders fail. I could list them but it wouldn't matter. Those that read this, and it resonates as having a glimmer of truth, you need to get to work ASAP. Everyone else? They're lost. They might figure it out eventually, by trial and error, and 10 years of sweat equity (like the few of us, who went it alone). In all likelihood, they'll get turned around in the Briar Patch and never make it.
There are others in this thread who know what they're talking about (Heypa, JH etc). They have echoed the same themes, in different ways. Really, in trading, "the trend is your friend". That's all there is to it. Now go, and do likewise.
As a final note, some might ask, if this guy has the secret sauce, why on earth would he BLURT IT OUT?!!? The markets never change. Ever. You could print this on the front page of the New York Times everyday for a week, and the markets would NEVER change. Longs fuck shorts. Or shorts fuck longs. That's all the market ever does. And that's all it can do. This is a binary, zero-sum equation. One side fucks the other, at all times. The key is to figure out which side is doing the fucking (read: trend), and get on the winning side. That's it.
+1000
Quote from achilles28:
Take special note: this is why traders fail. Even when presented with the answer, they refuse to believe, and ask questions that were already answered, at great length, had they chosen to just r.e.a.d.
Silly reader that ask questions, when will they learn... Make money instead! !
Quote from achilles28:
I spent nearly ~10,000 hours at the trading game (10 years, this year, actually). Took me about 8 to achieve *consistent* profitability. Now, this year, I really turned a corner.
Perhaps 10K hours is the average. Some get it quicker. Most don't get it, at all. The problem, like many have eluded too already, is changing conditions. In actuality, the market never changes. The patterns and setups never change, but volatility changes. IOW, the AMPLITUDE of price action. Take a look at the VIX. It's 4 points off 30 year lows. One of the keys to this great riddle is understanding volatility, and how it impacts performance across different strategies. Really, in a high VIX environment, everything works. Single candle setups, pure price action, indicators, oscillators, momentum. Anything (that's a great edge, right there...). In a low VIX environment, you're gonna get eaten alive, if you don't know how to identify the trend, and trade ONLY with the trend.
That's basically why traders fail. They never learn to identify the trend, and trade only with the trend. All the markets do is trend up or down. Sometimes steep. Often, in this environment, shallow. In an uptrend, shorts get suckered in during retracements, then longs run their stops on to new highs. In downtrends, longs get suckered in on retracements, and shorts run their stops down to new lows. That is how the market works. There is nothing more to general market operation, beyond that simple concept.
Now, where do technical patterns like wedges, or flags, or pennants, head and shoulders, and multi-bar setups fit in to all that? They work too, but within their own confined parameters of each particular setup, which are usually, conceptually speaking, simply a different form of stop running. Triangles sucker in both longs and shorts, broadening wedges run up to run down (or reverse etc). Narrowing wedges signal weakness, then a quick break. Either way, they only occur with periodic frequency. The market trends ALL THE TIME. Which is superior? You tell me.
The reason why most fail, is because they take a single indicator, candle pattern, price action signal, and take every entry generated by that signal. The problem with this method, is it is BLIND to overall trends. It gets you in on both the main trend AND the retracement. After slippage, commissions and spread, you lose. You traded the tree, instead of the forest. Trading is all about trading the FOREST. NOT THE TREES. Understanding the market conceptually, as a whole. Not some rote, bar by bar, ignorant logic that will leave you sliced up in shreds, because you had no idea who the suckers were at the table (half the time....you!).
Where to go from here? You (aspiring and failed traders) need to become trend traders. Masters at identifying the trend, and entering only in the direction of established trends, on pullbacks. THAT is the holy grail. That secret alone just saved you 7 years chasing your tail, and possibly financial and emotional ruin. Trust me, I know. With concerted effort, this shouldn't take more than 18 months. Probably, less than a year.
Now, after writing all that, I doubt one person in this thread will follow my advice. I doubt more than one or two traders will comment on this post. That's also why traders fail - because they can't distinguish good advice from bad. There's many reasons why traders fail. I could list them but it wouldn't matter. Those that read this, and it resonates as having a glimmer of truth, you need to get to work ASAP. Everyone else? They're lost. They might figure it out eventually, by trial and error, and 10 years of sweat equity (like the few of us, who went it alone). In all likelihood, they'll get turned around in the Briar Patch and never make it.
There are others in this thread who know what they're talking about (Heypa, JH etc). They have echoed the same themes, in different ways. Really, in trading, "the trend is your friend". That's all there is to it. Now go, and do likewise.
As a final note, some might ask, if this guy has the secret sauce, why on earth would he BLURT IT OUT?!!? The markets never change. Ever. You could print this on the front page of the New York Times everyday for a week, and the markets would NEVER change. Longs fuck shorts. Or shorts fuck longs. That's all the market ever does. And that's all it can do. This is a binary, zero-sum equation. One side fucks the other, at all times. The key is to figure out which side is doing the fucking (read: trend), and get on the winning side. That's it.
true 'dat
So I got to the point where I was drawing geometric figures on a chart to identify the trend and likewise to identify the pullbacks and some more stuff to try to figure if the trend was going to continue.. and when that started to make sense I started putting it all into a C++ script... guess what? That is a whole new level of difficult! Just how, exactly, do I draw those things?????????? I "know them when I see them!!!!" I wracked my brain for MONTHS trying to define exactly how I produced some drawings and I have only partial solutions so far...
Quote from Fractals 'R Us:
true 'dat
So I got to the point where I was drawing geometric figures on a chart to identify the trend and likewise to identify the pullbacks and some more stuff to try to figure if the trend was going to continue.. and when that started to make sense I started putting it all into a C++ script... guess what? That is a whole new level of difficult! Just how, exactly, do I draw those things?????????? I "know them when I see them!!!!" I wracked my brain for MONTHS trying to define exactly how I produced some drawings and I have only partial solutions so far...
Your options:
1. find a more competent programmer to code it
2. find some assistants in low-wage countries and pay them to manually find the patterns per your instructions...but never give them all of your secrets....you can find an assistant for around $300 per month (maybe even less) in some of these countries...compare that with how much for a programmer
Quote from achilles28:
As a final note, some might ask, if this guy has the secret sauce, why on earth would he BLURT IT OUT?!!? The markets never change. Ever. You could print this on the front page of the New York Times everyday for a week, and the markets would NEVER change. Longs fuck shorts. Or shorts fuck longs. That's all the market ever does. And that's all it can do. This is a binary, zero-sum equation. One side fucks the other, at all times. The key is to figure out which side is doing the fucking, and get on the winning side. That's it. [/B]
This is the secret to winning in the markets. Most people don't want to throw away the beliefs that keep them from winning. It's alot easier to blame the markets, government, floor traders, etc. than to take a long hard look at what you as an individual are doing wrong. This happens in almost everything in society. Wise people question themsleves and their methodology or actions, most however, just blame others.
Quote from Fractals 'R Us:
true 'dat
So I got to the point where I was drawing geometric figures on a chart to identify the trend and likewise to identify the pullbacks and some more stuff to try to figure if the trend was going to continue.. and when that started to make sense I started putting it all into a C++ script... guess what? That is a whole new level of difficult! Just how, exactly, do I draw those things?????????? I "know them when I see them!!!!" I wracked my brain for MONTHS trying to define exactly how I produced some drawings and I have only partial solutions so far...
Usually, some ones drawings more of an art, this is cause most of them are done in hindsight, but lets put that aside. It may be worth to take out the human aspect here, you may be trying to code the uncodable (your feelings on a given day)
Something is going to be lost in translation. Why not take control of what is lost ? using a pre made channel system or using pivote points generated by a indicator can yield to channels being drawn. They are not the ones you want. Probably not even you can reporduce your own channels. so let it go. being close is enough, it may actually yeild better results!
Actually you may want to look at bollinger bands in a way they are like channels
Maybe you are used to c++ there is also excel and "R" R is free.
Keep in mind you are analysing price here. There is alot more that can be done.
Quote from hitchslap:
I think it's more to do with information than practice.
There's a few traders on trade2win who have proved their ability and are obviously making lots of money everyday.
They won't tell me how they do it, but they both tell me that it's nothing to do with charts OR time+sale/DOM reading etc.
They say it's nothing that you will ever find in a book or on the internet.
I think I'll spend my life looking for whatever it is.
Both of these traders admitted that they were shown by successful traders and both said that they would never have found 'it' by themselves due to the mental shift in thinking required.
I am responding to your specific observations.
There are many many ways to be profitable.
Reading the markets is like reading a book or looking at a painting. You can do one but not the other. So you learned to read. You can do arithmetic too.
Now, I will give you the mental shift required.
I read markets in an instant. I feel comfortable, supported and confident.
I will answer your question about finding the what to look for. Here in this post you will see how it all works.
Your eyes and brain are the two things to use. Your eyes do three things moslty: space, shape and movement.
Your brain updates when you sleep. The brain gets inputs from your eyes on two levels: conscious and unconscious. 1 to 1,000, respectively. Your mind merges the two as you sleep.
The equation for both is:
sensing (10%) + inference(90% = perception (100%)
Trading is done based upon looking at events.
You look at a space. That is a chart with panes (I use only a few but you can see my screens and the order inwhich I look at the panes)
You see shapes. (so I frame these and color their backgrounds).
You see movement (the shapes change and lock in).
This is a painting.
I do not keep secrets so I am telling you everything. This is how simple it all is.
In the most important pane there are 11 shapes. This is the independent variable. Put it in the middle.
In the pane above, there are 10 shapes. This is the dependent variable. This is the answer sheet.
You have to have the shapes in your brain or on a few sheets of paper.
I put the 11 on a flow sheet that depicts a trend. I always know I know where I am in a trend.
The 10 shapes give me permission (or not) to look at the 11 shapes. Two say yes; the rest say no.
To take a profit segment, I test to find out if I have finished a trend. The test has three parts and I have 5 minutes to do it.
I started with an empty mind. I was ignorant. and I had an open mind. I started to trade live half way through learning. I did my learning in 40 days and I started trading after the first 20 days.
The mind is built. You get long term memory by doing drills. Inference is long term memory.
Today anyone can take a shortcut to learning and have inference in a very short while. It is 3:00pm here. I could meet with a person and give him the 21 pieces in a little over an hour. Use GTM for example. He could copy them on sheets of blank papr until he got them straight. Tomorrow morning he wakes up and can log the 21 pieces on a log for the day's trading.
If the three part test says a trend is over, then the person reverses to the other side of the market.
If you ski you can understand this (from me as a past certified Swiss Ski Instructor (the red jacket)): do not snow plough; it is dangerous. Only parallel ski; you will be safe at all times. I can teach a snow bunny to be an intermediate in two days (A lift is never used).
All of the above is done with Orders Of Events. All shapes are relative. Two bars make a shape.
Can you learn 2 shapes out of 10 that say yes. Cetainly, you learn the two and forget the rest.
In any trend the first name of the independent variable is assigned; all others are named relatively. Did you ever learn to count? Do you remember you were TOLD to begin counting with 1? This means you can see shapes and you can do things in a dictated order.
Last comment. I am different than are you. This was found out about me by others. If you want to see what I am like get the movie: "The Temple Grandin Story". I am not autistic. But I am like what Tufte describes and Jung describes.
Someone post the 11 shapes (or just names) of the 11 independent pieces. Someone post the 10 dependent variable pieces.
Can you remember 21 of the 26 pieces of the alphabet? Yes.
BE DO HAVE.
Quote from Fractals 'R Us:
true 'dat
So I got to the point where I was drawing geometric figures on a chart to identify the trend and likewise to identify the pullbacks and some more stuff to try to figure if the trend was going to continue.. and when that started to make sense I started putting it all into a C++ script... guess what? That is a whole new level of difficult! Just how, exactly, do I draw those things?????????? I "know them when I see them!!!!" I wracked my brain for MONTHS trying to define exactly how I produced some drawings and I have only partial solutions so far...
find out how printers work by triangulating points using sinuses... blablabla