Tesla : BEAR in my opinion, what is the bullish case?
- Thread starter Chris Mac
- Start date
You know, everyone can give his opinion, right or wrong, who cares?
On ET, I search for good and bad ideas !
Everyone knows that there are not only geniuses and pros on ET.
But understanding everyone's opinion may help you to take advantage of that.
So to continue :
@USD185 now, what is the bullish case?
Attractive valuation ? Strong support @ 185 ?
I am completely open to discussion
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/01/16/what-i-learned-driving-a-tesla/21872777/
Hey Bears, go drive the car.
Hey Bears, go drive the car.
Prediction: In 10 years Tesla will be either bought out or gone bankrupt. The quality of the product has nothing to do with bad business decisions on the owners' behalf. (remember when Blackberrys were the shit years ago?*)
The numbers Elon keep saying are magical (they aren't going to make half million cars by 2020), the Gigafactory will be under producing batteries for years.
It is a niche market right now and it is fine as long as you treat it as such. But when you think that Tesla is going to save the world and everyone is going to drive a Tesla based car in 5-10 years, you are dreaming. They aren't able to make an under 40K car, which would be a start for domination.
The competition can increase sales volume much faster with cheaper cars. So Tesla will stay a boutique brand for the times to come...
*"On August 12, 2013, BlackBerry announced the intention to sell the company due to their increasingly unfavourable financial position and competition in the mobile industry."
The numbers Elon keep saying are magical (they aren't going to make half million cars by 2020), the Gigafactory will be under producing batteries for years.
It is a niche market right now and it is fine as long as you treat it as such. But when you think that Tesla is going to save the world and everyone is going to drive a Tesla based car in 5-10 years, you are dreaming. They aren't able to make an under 40K car, which would be a start for domination.
The competition can increase sales volume much faster with cheaper cars. So Tesla will stay a boutique brand for the times to come...
*"On August 12, 2013, BlackBerry announced the intention to sell the company due to their increasingly unfavourable financial position and competition in the mobile industry."
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I seldom am... 
Have you heard of production restrain? Supposedly they are having it. If they are having trouble making less than 40K cars per year, how will they make 500K? If it isn't production restrain (probably they are lying about it) than it is demand restrain, meaning the demand has peaked and there won't be customers for 500K cars...
But never let a good argument come between you and your feelings...
Here, I put TSLA next to BBRY, just to see what is to come:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=BBRY&time=20&startdate=1/4/1999&enddate=10/4/2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa:0&comptemptext=TSLA&comp=TSLA&ma=1&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15&x=28&y=16
Have you heard of production restrain? Supposedly they are having it. If they are having trouble making less than 40K cars per year, how will they make 500K? If it isn't production restrain (probably they are lying about it) than it is demand restrain, meaning the demand has peaked and there won't be customers for 500K cars...
But never let a good argument come between you and your feelings...
Here, I put TSLA next to BBRY, just to see what is to come:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=BBRY&time=20&startdate=1/4/1999&enddate=10/4/2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa:0&comptemptext=TSLA&comp=TSLA&ma=1&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15&x=28&y=16
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I seldom am...
Have you heard of production restrain? Supposedly they are having it. If they are having trouble making less than 40K cars per year, how will they make 500K? If it isn't production restrain (probably they are lying about it) than it is demand restrain, meaning the demand has peaked and there won't be customers for 500K cars...
But never let a good argument come between you and your feelings...
Here, I put TSLA next to BBRY, just to see what is to come:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=BBRY&time=20&startdate=1/4/1999&enddate=10/4/2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa:0&comptemptext=TSLA&comp=TSLA&ma=1&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15&x=28&y=16
Hello Pekelo
Lot of good arguments... I agree with most of them !
I would add that if Elon Musk is the new Steve Jobs, he will make mistakes too.
But comparing TSLA and BBRY seems to me a bit strange... I will rather compare Tesla to Toyota.
The upper Toyota, the lower Tesla.
Chris Mac
Wow, GM is beating Tesla in the the cheap, 200 mile EV market by 2 years!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2893356-gm-to-deliver-inexpensive-200-mile-ev-2-years-ahead-of-tesla
This is huge and they could put Tesla into perpetual unprofitability, since
"Seeing as Tesla has not been able to make a profit on the $70,000-$130,000 Model S, and the similarly priced upcoming Model X could simply cannibalize Model S sales, Tesla's longer-term profit prospects depend almost exclusively on the Model 3, which has been promised for a price of $35,000."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2893356-gm-to-deliver-inexpensive-200-mile-ev-2-years-ahead-of-tesla
This is huge and they could put Tesla into perpetual unprofitability, since
"Seeing as Tesla has not been able to make a profit on the $70,000-$130,000 Model S, and the similarly priced upcoming Model X could simply cannibalize Model S sales, Tesla's longer-term profit prospects depend almost exclusively on the Model 3, which has been promised for a price of $35,000."